Wednesday, July15, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Minnesott Beach, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 8:22PM Wednesday July 15, 2020 4:25 AM EDT (08:25 UTC) Moonrise 1:01AMMoonset 2:52PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 337 Am Edt Wed Jul 15 2020
Today..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight.
Thu..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Minnesott Beach, NC
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location: 34.98, -76.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 150747 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 347 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak front will linger offshore through tonight before exiting offshore with high pressure building in from the north. A front will push southward for the weekend, increasing chances for unsettled weather.

NEAR TERM /TODAY/. As of 3 AM Wed . Subsidence aloft continues today as onshore flow brings continued lower to mid level moisture advection. Any lingering debris clouds from overnight storms will erode early, allowing for mostly sunny skies through the morning, with temps rising into the 90s by early afternoon. Convective temps are in the mid-to-upper 80s will prompt some agitation within the cu field by midday, and a few isolated showers are possible across the region, but capping around 700 mb will keep convection suppressed for the most part. The exception could be along the coast mainly south of the Neuse River, where greater low level moisture advection off the Gulf Stream and stronger lift along the sea breeze brings the chance for scattered thunderstorms by mid-to-late afternoon. DCAPE values >1000 J/kg indicate the potential for gusty winds with the strongest storms, but dry air aloft will keep convective intensity limited and the overall severe threat is low.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/. As of 3 AM Wed . Any lingering storm activity will wane around sunset with the loss of surface-based instability. A few storms can't be completely ruled out with lingering boundaries through the night as ample low to mid level moisture persists, but chances are generally around 10% or less. A lowering inversion could prompt the development of some stratus late, but with light winds and plenty of breaks in the cloud, radiational cooling should be efficient for much of the night, with lows around 70 away from the water.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 330 AM Wed . Very zonal pattern aloft with upper ridging continues through much of the week. As a result, expect mainly sea breeze and instability driven convection each afternoon. By Friday the upper ridge moves westward and a frontal zone moves into New England and the mid- Atlantic. This feature is well defined in both the GFS and EC solutions and is enhanced by a strengthening pressure gradient, but by Saturday, surface high pressure off the Atlantic coast will once again weaken the gradient and the feature becomes less defined, although 500 mb vorticity clearly shows a mid level feature making it through eastern NC during the day on Sunday but it is unclear if it will be reflected to the surface at this time. At the very least, his will lead to a period of increased PoPs through the end of the long term forecast as the surface trough remains set up over the area for several days. Another front out of Canada is expected to encroach on the area early to mid week next week, bringing continued rain chances with it. Temperatures will continue to be hot with highs in the low 90s and lows in the mid to upper 70s. Monday will be the hottest day with highs near 93 or 94 degrees and heat indices over 100 degrees.

AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Short Term /through tonight/ . As of 130 AM Wed . A few showers continue around the area early this morning, with outflow from these showers prompting patchy MVFR ceilings. Still VFR prevails and, with the increased could cover, there is increasing confidence that limited radiational cooling will limit fog/stratus coverage through the early morning hours. VFR prevails after day break, with isolated storms this afternoon presenting a limited risk for flight restrictions mainly at EWN and OAJ.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/ . As of 330 AM Wednesday . Diurnal convection through Friday before moisture picks up for the weekend bringing a better chance for showers/storms across eastern NC. Fog/low stratus will be possible in the early morning hours where rain has occurred. Southerly winds at 5-10 kts will prevail through much of the forecast period.

MARINE. Short Term /through Tonight/ . As of 330 AM Wed . Favorable marine conditions continue as high pressure ridging in from the north will keep mainly light easterly flow in place today and tonight. Seas persist around 2 to 3 ft in weak southeasterly windswell.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/ . As of 330 AM Wed . Seas will generally stay around 2 feet before increasing slightly over the weekend with 4-5 ft seas expected for early next week with 7-9 second periods. Winds will also increase early next week with 10-15 kts expected gusting 20-25 kts.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . CB SHORT TERM . CB LONG TERM . RTE AVIATION . RTE/CB MARINE . RTE/CB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 21 mi55 min 86°F
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 31 mi85 min Calm G 0 82°F 1016.9 hPa (-0.6)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC8 mi31 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds78°F73°F87%1017.1 hPa
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC12 mi31 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds75°F73°F94%1017.6 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC21 mi27 minNE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F75°F90%1017.3 hPa
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC22 mi29 minN 410.00 miOvercast83°F72°F70%1017.3 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC22 mi28 minN 510.00 miFair79°F75°F88%1017.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNKT

Wind History from NKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmN5N33Calm4NW6NW4N5NW3E4S7S5S4S4S4E3E3CalmCalmNE7Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmSW5NW12NE4--S5S4S5S6S8W28
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2 days agoCalmSE3--NW4CalmCalmS5S3S7SW8SE11S11S11
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Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:59 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:04 AM EDT     1.72 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:21 AM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:50 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:37 PM EDT     2.14 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.711.31.61.71.71.41.10.80.50.40.40.711.51.92.12.121.71.30.90.6

Tide / Current Tables for Newport River, North Carolina
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Newport River
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:48 AM EDT     2.57 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:04 AM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:50 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:21 PM EDT     3.20 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.81.21.62.12.52.62.421.61.10.70.60.71.11.82.42.93.23.12.92.41.81.30.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.