Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Minnesott Beach, NC
May 15, 2024 5:40 AM EDT (09:40 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:02 AM Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 11:52 AM Moonset 1:10 AM |
AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 408 Am Edt Wed May 15 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight - .
Today - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft, except 3 to 5 ft near shore. Wave detail: S 6 ft at 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms late this morning and early afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms late.
Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft, except 3 to 5 ft near shore. Wave detail: S 6 ft at 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms, mainly in the evening.
Thu - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 7 seconds and E 1 ft at 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Thu night - NW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 7 seconds and E 1 ft at 8 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, increasing to a moderate chop after midnight.
Fri - N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 7 seconds and nw 1 ft at 3 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon.
Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 7 seconds and se 1 ft at 2 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sat - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Showers likely. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Sun - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Showers likely in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ100 408 Am Edt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - Inclement boating conditions continue over offshore zones as low pressure lifts into far southeastern virginia this morning. Sca conditions remain here until Thursday morning. Another round of poor boating conditions is possible early next week in the wake of weekend low pressure.
Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 150906 AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 506 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon as low pressure lifts to our north. A cold front will sweep across ENC tonight with high pressure building in behind it, keeping Thursday dry. Another low pressure system impacts us this weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 345 AM Wed...Unsettled weather pattern prevails over the southeastern CONUS this morning as heights fall ahead of mid- level troughing digging into the TN Valley. This feature will continue its sojourn eastward through the short term period, with the axis passing to our south late tonight and moving offshore by daybreak Thursday. At the surface, a weak area of low pressure was analyzed over far southeastern Virginia lifting northward, placing ENC in the warm sector with a cold front just west of the coastal plain, demarcated by a healthy Td gradient.
Widespread stratus has overspread much of the state with sufficiently deep low-level moisture in place, and will remain in place through daybreak. Surface winds will be very light today (5 kt or less) and the resultant lack of earnest mixing will preclude any scattering out of ceilings until late this morning. However, once the sun breaks through and robust heating begins instability will quickly build (up to 1500-2000 J/kg SBCAPE) as temperatures climb to the low 80s and dew points surge to near 70. Model soundings show negligible capping in place as the mid-level low approaches, and a vort max rotating around its base will provide the focal point for gradual shower and thunderstorm development.
The pre-storm environment will be sufficient for a few strong to severe storms with moderate to strong instability in place and effective shear of 35-40 kt. Long straight hodographs favor splitting cells and multi-cluster development with a risk of damaging winds and hail. Although all inland locales will be in a favorable environment, NCAR HRRR ensembles and SSCRAM output point to a local maxima of severe potential along the southern coast, juxtaposed with the highest axis of deep layer shear. SPC has the coastal plain in a Slight (Level 2 of 5) risk of severe thunderstorms, while the rest of the region is in a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/
As of 400 AM Thu...Mid-level trough will swing across the region overnight as low pressure lifts farther north off the coast of the Delmarva Peninsula. The surface cold front, which will have lifted back north this afternoon, will sweep back across ENC overnight. The low-level frontal convergence will likely provide a focal point for continued convective development, but this will quickly wane overnight as the more stable airmass sweeps into the area. Low-level moisture will be slow to exit and low overcast skies are likely for most of the overnight period. Lows will be a few degrees cooler, dipping back into the low to mid 60s.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 430 AM Wednesday...High pressure builds in Thursday night into Friday but another low pressure system will impact the area this weekend. High pressure builds in early next week.
Thursday through Friday...Upper ridging builds in from the west Thursday with a vertically stacked low off the Mid-Atlantic coast slowly moving eastward. Lowered PoPs to below mentionable with most guidance now indicating dry conditions and model soundings showing only a shallow saturated layer above 850mb and very dry well mixed conditions below that. If any showers do develop, they will likely only produce virga. Ridging crest over the area Friday with mainly dry conditions expected but will see increasing clouds as the next system approaches and could see an isolated shower move in from the west late in the day.
Friday night through Sunday night...A complex low pressure system will impact the region through most of the weekend. A southern stream wave will transport ample gulf moisture into the region Friday night into Saturday with sfc low pressure moving across the region late Saturday or early Sunday. The system then transitions into a vertically stack low as it slowly pushes across the Mid-Atlantic and off the coast through the latter half of the weekend. As with most cut-off systems, there are differences among the models with the evolution, timing and track with this system but unsettled weather will impact the region through much of the period.
Monday and Tuesday...The upper low slowly pulls away from the area early next week with high pressure building in from the west with generally dry conditions expected.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 06Z Thursday/...
As of 150 AM Wed...Mixed bag of sub-VFR flight conditions is expected to become prevailing IFR after 06z as deep low-level moisture lingers over the area in very light flow. Shower activity is quickly departing the Outer Banks and expect predominantly dry conditions through sunrise tomorrow. Cigs will be slow to rise tomorrow morning with light southwesterly flow at 5 kt or less but will reach VFR by midday. However, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop by mid- afternoon and pose a threat for all terminals into the evening.
Highest risk for OAJ/EWN is mid-afternoon (18-22z) while for ISO/OAJ greater risk is late afternoon to evening (20-00z).
Convective activity will wane late Wednesday as cold front pushes southward across the area. Ceilings are expected to crash immediately behind this boundary in light northerly flow.
Guidance suggests at least predominantly MVFR cigs but periods of IFR are very much in play.
LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 445 AM Wednesday...Pred VFR expected Thursday through Friday with high pressure building into the area. Another low pressure system will impact the area through the weekend bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions Friday night through Sunday.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/...
As of 405 AM Wed...Poor boating conditions are in place this morning as low pressure lifts into far southeastern Virginia and a weak cold front sits west of the coastal plain. Winds have fallen substantially from their peak this afternoon, now out of the southwest at around 10-15 kt. Higher seas persist for offshore waters, ranging from 5-7 feet across the far northern waters to 7-9 feet elsewhere. Southwesterly winds of 10-15 kt will continue for much of today, before veering northerly late tonight as cold front eventually makes its way across the waters. The lighter winds will allow seas to gradually fall through today, but the process will be slow and maintained SCA headlines for elevated seas into early Thursday morning.
LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 5 AM Wednesday...Low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic will slowly push away from the area Thursday with high pressure transitioning across the waters on Friday with conditions expected to remain below Small Craft Criteria. A complex low pressure system will impact the region Friday night through Sunday bringing unsettled weather through the period. Guidance for the most part keeping conditions below SCA criteria through the weekend but cannot rule out a period of low end SCA mainly late Saturday/Saturday night. The best opportunity for SCA conditions will be late in the weekend or early next week as low pressure deepens as it pulls offshore. There are differences among the models the timing and track of this system, so be sure to follow updates as details come into focus.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154- 156-158.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 506 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon as low pressure lifts to our north. A cold front will sweep across ENC tonight with high pressure building in behind it, keeping Thursday dry. Another low pressure system impacts us this weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 345 AM Wed...Unsettled weather pattern prevails over the southeastern CONUS this morning as heights fall ahead of mid- level troughing digging into the TN Valley. This feature will continue its sojourn eastward through the short term period, with the axis passing to our south late tonight and moving offshore by daybreak Thursday. At the surface, a weak area of low pressure was analyzed over far southeastern Virginia lifting northward, placing ENC in the warm sector with a cold front just west of the coastal plain, demarcated by a healthy Td gradient.
Widespread stratus has overspread much of the state with sufficiently deep low-level moisture in place, and will remain in place through daybreak. Surface winds will be very light today (5 kt or less) and the resultant lack of earnest mixing will preclude any scattering out of ceilings until late this morning. However, once the sun breaks through and robust heating begins instability will quickly build (up to 1500-2000 J/kg SBCAPE) as temperatures climb to the low 80s and dew points surge to near 70. Model soundings show negligible capping in place as the mid-level low approaches, and a vort max rotating around its base will provide the focal point for gradual shower and thunderstorm development.
The pre-storm environment will be sufficient for a few strong to severe storms with moderate to strong instability in place and effective shear of 35-40 kt. Long straight hodographs favor splitting cells and multi-cluster development with a risk of damaging winds and hail. Although all inland locales will be in a favorable environment, NCAR HRRR ensembles and SSCRAM output point to a local maxima of severe potential along the southern coast, juxtaposed with the highest axis of deep layer shear. SPC has the coastal plain in a Slight (Level 2 of 5) risk of severe thunderstorms, while the rest of the region is in a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/
As of 400 AM Thu...Mid-level trough will swing across the region overnight as low pressure lifts farther north off the coast of the Delmarva Peninsula. The surface cold front, which will have lifted back north this afternoon, will sweep back across ENC overnight. The low-level frontal convergence will likely provide a focal point for continued convective development, but this will quickly wane overnight as the more stable airmass sweeps into the area. Low-level moisture will be slow to exit and low overcast skies are likely for most of the overnight period. Lows will be a few degrees cooler, dipping back into the low to mid 60s.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 430 AM Wednesday...High pressure builds in Thursday night into Friday but another low pressure system will impact the area this weekend. High pressure builds in early next week.
Thursday through Friday...Upper ridging builds in from the west Thursday with a vertically stacked low off the Mid-Atlantic coast slowly moving eastward. Lowered PoPs to below mentionable with most guidance now indicating dry conditions and model soundings showing only a shallow saturated layer above 850mb and very dry well mixed conditions below that. If any showers do develop, they will likely only produce virga. Ridging crest over the area Friday with mainly dry conditions expected but will see increasing clouds as the next system approaches and could see an isolated shower move in from the west late in the day.
Friday night through Sunday night...A complex low pressure system will impact the region through most of the weekend. A southern stream wave will transport ample gulf moisture into the region Friday night into Saturday with sfc low pressure moving across the region late Saturday or early Sunday. The system then transitions into a vertically stack low as it slowly pushes across the Mid-Atlantic and off the coast through the latter half of the weekend. As with most cut-off systems, there are differences among the models with the evolution, timing and track with this system but unsettled weather will impact the region through much of the period.
Monday and Tuesday...The upper low slowly pulls away from the area early next week with high pressure building in from the west with generally dry conditions expected.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 06Z Thursday/...
As of 150 AM Wed...Mixed bag of sub-VFR flight conditions is expected to become prevailing IFR after 06z as deep low-level moisture lingers over the area in very light flow. Shower activity is quickly departing the Outer Banks and expect predominantly dry conditions through sunrise tomorrow. Cigs will be slow to rise tomorrow morning with light southwesterly flow at 5 kt or less but will reach VFR by midday. However, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop by mid- afternoon and pose a threat for all terminals into the evening.
Highest risk for OAJ/EWN is mid-afternoon (18-22z) while for ISO/OAJ greater risk is late afternoon to evening (20-00z).
Convective activity will wane late Wednesday as cold front pushes southward across the area. Ceilings are expected to crash immediately behind this boundary in light northerly flow.
Guidance suggests at least predominantly MVFR cigs but periods of IFR are very much in play.
LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 445 AM Wednesday...Pred VFR expected Thursday through Friday with high pressure building into the area. Another low pressure system will impact the area through the weekend bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions Friday night through Sunday.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/...
As of 405 AM Wed...Poor boating conditions are in place this morning as low pressure lifts into far southeastern Virginia and a weak cold front sits west of the coastal plain. Winds have fallen substantially from their peak this afternoon, now out of the southwest at around 10-15 kt. Higher seas persist for offshore waters, ranging from 5-7 feet across the far northern waters to 7-9 feet elsewhere. Southwesterly winds of 10-15 kt will continue for much of today, before veering northerly late tonight as cold front eventually makes its way across the waters. The lighter winds will allow seas to gradually fall through today, but the process will be slow and maintained SCA headlines for elevated seas into early Thursday morning.
LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 5 AM Wednesday...Low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic will slowly push away from the area Thursday with high pressure transitioning across the waters on Friday with conditions expected to remain below Small Craft Criteria. A complex low pressure system will impact the region Friday night through Sunday bringing unsettled weather through the period. Guidance for the most part keeping conditions below SCA criteria through the weekend but cannot rule out a period of low end SCA mainly late Saturday/Saturday night. The best opportunity for SCA conditions will be late in the weekend or early next week as low pressure deepens as it pulls offshore. There are differences among the models the timing and track of this system, so be sure to follow updates as details come into focus.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154- 156-158.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC | 21 mi | 53 min | WSW 8G | 71°F | 71°F | 29.70 | ||
| CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC | 31 mi | 41 min | WSW 7G | 70°F | 29.72 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KNKT CHERRY POINT MCAS /CUNNINGHAM FIELD/,NC | 6 sm | 44 min | SW 07 | 9 sm | Partly Cloudy | 70°F | 68°F | 94% | 29.72 | |
| KEWN COASTAL CAROLINA REGIONAL,NC | 11 sm | 46 min | WSW 06 | 8 sm | Overcast | 68°F | 68°F | 100% | 29.71 | |
| KMRH MICHAEL J SMITH FIELD,NC | 21 sm | 28 min | WSW 06 | 7 sm | Partly Cloudy | 72°F | 70°F | 94% | 29.70 | |
| KNJM BOGUE FIELD MCALF,NC | 22 sm | 26 min | calm | 5 sm | Partly Cloudy | Mist | 70°F | 70°F | 100% | 29.68 |
Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:08 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 03:11 AM EDT 1.91 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:03 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 09:52 AM EDT 0.41 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:50 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 03:44 PM EDT 1.80 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:03 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 10:08 PM EDT 0.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:08 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 03:11 AM EDT 1.91 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:03 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 09:52 AM EDT 0.41 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:50 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 03:44 PM EDT 1.80 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:03 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 10:08 PM EDT 0.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.1 |
| 1 am |
| 1.5 |
| 2 am |
| 1.8 |
| 3 am |
| 1.9 |
| 4 am |
| 1.9 |
| 5 am |
| 1.7 |
| 6 am |
| 1.4 |
| 7 am |
| 1 |
| 8 am |
| 0.7 |
| 9 am |
| 0.5 |
| 10 am |
| 0.4 |
| 11 am |
| 0.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.5 |
Newport River
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:08 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 02:55 AM EDT 2.86 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:03 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 09:35 AM EDT 0.62 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:50 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 03:28 PM EDT 2.70 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:03 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:51 PM EDT 0.70 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:08 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 02:55 AM EDT 2.86 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:03 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 09:35 AM EDT 0.62 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:50 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 03:28 PM EDT 2.70 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:03 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:51 PM EDT 0.70 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Newport River, North Carolina, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.8 |
| 1 am |
| 2.4 |
| 2 am |
| 2.7 |
| 3 am |
| 2.9 |
| 4 am |
| 2.7 |
| 5 am |
| 2.4 |
| 6 am |
| 1.9 |
| 7 am |
| 1.4 |
| 8 am |
| 0.9 |
| 9 am |
| 0.7 |
| 10 am |
| 0.6 |
| 11 am |
| 0.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 2 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.9 |
Morehead City, NC,
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