Sunday, November29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Neuse Forest, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 4:57PM Sunday November 29, 2020 12:12 AM EST (05:12 UTC) Moonrise 4:39PMMoonset 6:05AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ137 NEuse And Bay Rivers- 1016 Pm Est Sat Nov 28 2020
Overnight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Patchy fog late.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Sun night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves a moderate chop, increasing to choppy after midnight. Patchy fog in the evening. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight.
Mon..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves choppy. A slight chance of tstms. Showers, mainly in the morning.
Mon night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves choppy.
Tue..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves choppy.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Thu..W winds around 5 kt, becoming n. Waves flat. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Neuse Forest, NC
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location: 34.99, -76.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 290325 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1025 PM EST Sat Nov 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will pass to the north this weekend, with a strong and complex low pressure system impacting the region Sunday night into Monday. Cool high pressure will build over the area Tuesday through Thursday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/. As of 1015 PM Sat . As temperatures have already dropped into the lower to middle 40s, we are starting to see some reports of patchy dense fog in spots as of 10 PM. Added fog for the next few hours, then blended with our previous forecast of areas of fog through 13Z. Tweaked hourly temps to shower the faster rate of cooling but overall low temp forecast still in great shape. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s from Martin to Lenoir counties, with low 40s elsewhere, and mid 40s along the coast/Outer Banks. Some high clouds toward daybreak may keep temps from falling as much over our far southwestern counties.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/. As of 635 AM Sat . High pressure at the surface will shift off the DELMARVA peninsula on Sunday while low pressure along the Gulf Coast begins to develop and move northeast towards the Southeastern states, in response to a large upper low digging southeast from OK/TX into the ARKLAMS area. Most of Sunday will remain dry and mostly sunny, with weak easterly surface flow becoming southeasterly late in the day. Increasing clouds and moisture by late afternoon for southwestern zones as the complex area of low pressure approaches the area. Temps will remain mild, mid 60s across Eastern NC.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 5 AM Sat . A strong cold front will impact the area Sunday night and Monday. Behind the front, a much colder airmass will take hold midweek. Another strong system will impact the area late week into the first part of next weekend.

Sunday night through Monday . A vigorous mid-level trough will dig across the central US, developing a strong mid-latitude cyclone over the Southeastern US that will march towards the Northeast before becoming cut-off around the US/Canadian border. Allowing the strong associated cold front to push through ENC late Mon and Mon night. SPC continues to outlook the area in a Marginal Risk for svr tstms. Instability still looks to be the limiting factor but given the strong shear expected (0-6 km 50+ kt) and low level helicity, there will be a risk for isolated damaging wind gusts and/or a tornado late Sun night through the first part of Monday. Latest guidance shows PWAT values peaking at 1.5+", exceeding the daily climo max. Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall is expected late Sunday night through the first part of Monday, with qpf forecast totals ranging from 0.75-2". Precip will taper off from west to east Monday afternoon. The cold front will push offshore overnight Monday, taking the precip with it, and ushering much colder air in its wake. Non-diurnal temp curve expected Sun night with temps and dewpoints gradually warming with increased warm air advection.

Tuesday through Thursday . High pressure will slowly build across the southern US behind the cold front, featuring mostly dry wx and temps several deg below normal. A much colder airmass will filter into the area Monday night and linger through mid week. 850mb temp anomolies 10-15 degrees C below normal. Highs Tue and Wed will be in the upper 40s to low-50s, warming into the mid-upper 50s Thu. Overnight lows will drop to or below freezing for most inland locations Wed and Thu mornings.

Friday and Saturday . Still pretty far out in the period, but models in fairly good agreement showing another strong low pressure system impacting the region late week into the first part of next weekend.

AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Short Term /Through Sunday evening . As of 1010 PM Sat . We have experienced brief periods of IFR fog the past hour. We will monitor this trend and if it continues will likely add fog to the TAFS going forward. Model soundings still show quite a bit of dry air just off the surface so we may be bouncy for awhile and may cover this with TEMPO groups. Highest confidence in restrictions remains between 08Z and 12Z. During that time LIFR cigs and VSBYS are likely at KPGV. Confidence is slightly lower at KISO and KOAJ but still high enough to include in the TAFS. For now KEWN appears to remain just on the edge with MVFR VSBYS.

Improvement to VFR expected between 13Z and 14Z Sunday with VFR the rest of the day. Mid clouds late may fall to near MVFR CIGS late Sunday evening ahead of our next weather system.

Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/ . As of 3 AM Sat . VFR conditions expected Sunday, with ceilings gradually lowering becoming widespread sub-VFR Sunday night through at least mid- day Monday, lower ceilings could linger into Mon night. Widespread showers and a few tstms expected Sunday night through mid Monday. Breezy S/SW wind gusts 20-25 kt Monday. Pred VFR Tue and Wed.

MARINE. Short Term /Through Sunday/ . As of 1020 PM Sat . Latest surface and buoy data indicate N winds less than 10 kts across the Sounds and coastal waters, with medium period seas 2-3 ft across the coastal waters. Decent boating conditions expected through Sunday as high pressure builds south over the NC waters through tonight and shifts off the VA coast on Sunday. Tonight, the gradient will tighten slightly and winds will increase to 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts, and seas 3-4 ft. Winds become northeasterly by Sunday morning but diminish to 5-10 kt, then veer east and southeast by late Sunday afternoon. Seas will range 2-4 ft tonight, then 2-3 ft on Sunday.

Hoisted Gale Watch for late Sunday night through Monday given expected Gale Force winds, especially in frequent gusts.

Long Term /Sunday night through Wednesday/ . As of 3 AM Sat . Strong winds and dangerous seas expected Mon and Tue. Conditions will rapidly deteriorate Sun night into Monday as strong S/SW winds develop ahead of a strong front. Gale Force winds 25-35 kt with gusts up to 40 kt looking more likely Mon into Mon night, with seas peaking at 9-13 ft. Showers and tstms also likely Sunday night into Mon. The front will push through the waters late Mon and Mon night. Winds become W 20-25 kt Tue with seas subsiding to 5-9 ft. W winds 15-20 kt Wed morning diminishing to 10-15 kt late, with seas 3-5 ft.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 3 PM Sat . Strong S/SW winds will develop ahead of a cold front Monday, which could result in minor coastal flooding and rough surf. Right now best chances for minor coastal flooding look like areas on the sound side Outer Banks north of Buxton. Beaches south of Oregon Inlet will have the highest potential for rough surf.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . Gale Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for AMZ135-150-156-158. Gale Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for AMZ152-154.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . DAG/EH SHORT TERM . DAG LONG TERM . CQD/ML AVIATION . EH/CQD MARINE . DAG/EH/CQD TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . MHX


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 22 mi54 min NE 1.9 G 4.1 53°F 64°F1021 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 32 mi72 min NNE 8.9 G 9.9 58°F 1021 hPa (+1.1)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC9 mi18 minN 09.00 miFair48°F45°F89%1020.8 hPa
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC11 mi18 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist45°F45°F100%1021.1 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC22 mi74 minNNE 410.00 miFair51°F48°F92%1020.6 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC22 mi15 minNE 610.00 miFair0°F0°F%1021.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNKT

Wind History from NKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----NW4CalmSW3N3NW3CalmW4NW5N5CalmCalmNW6N9NW5CalmCalmCalmN3NE4CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoS4CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3Calm--Calm----CalmNE6N10NE6N6N11--N6NW5N5NW3Calm--
2 days agoS9S9S11
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SW8S8S10S9S9S13S7S11SW11SW10S10----S4S7S5SW6SW4SW5SW6SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:45 AM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:04 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:54 AM EST     2.36 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:36 PM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:38 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:09 PM EST     1.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.20.10.30.81.31.92.22.42.21.91.40.90.50.20.20.40.91.41.81.91.91.61.2

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:43 AM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:05 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:54 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:48 AM EST     1.45 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:34 PM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:38 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:03 PM EST     1.19 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.30.10.10.20.50.81.21.41.41.41.10.80.50.30.10.10.30.60.91.11.21.11

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.