Friday, March5, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Dillard, GA

Version 3.4
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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 6:31PM Friday March 5, 2021 8:32 PM EST (01:32 UTC) Moonrise 12:50AMMoonset 11:09AM Illumination 51% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dillard, GA
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location: 35.01, -83.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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FXUS62 KGSP 060001 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 701 PM EST Fri Mar 5 2021

SYNOPSIS. Dry high pressure will set up through our area through today before a Gulf Coast low pressure system passes mostly south of the region Friday night into Saturday, with minimal chance for rainfall. Canadian high pressure builds back into the area Sunday, maintaining warm, dry conditions through the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 700 PM: Dry and mild conditions will continue into early evening with winds slowly tapering off. Cirrus will slowly increase as well. Fire Danger Statement for NE GA being allowed to expire at this time.

A potent shortwave drops from the Mid-South to the Gulf Coast tonight. Mid and upper level moisture increase ahead of this system spreading clouds over the area. A little unusual in terms of setup: seems some degree of dynamic lift ahead of the low, combined with low level covergence along an inverted surface trough over Georgia, will produce light precip mainly in the Savannah River Valley and adjacent areas. Low-level saturation kinda occurs out of nowhere at 925/850mb on the synoptic progs. Low-level isentropic lift is shallow and overall it just doesn't look like a good setup for precip; GFS continues to be the wettest model, but the CAMs have a believable-looking depiction of light banded precip shifting into the southern CWA from the west overnight. Thinking that moistening may be light precip falling from further aloft and moistening the low levels. Liked the previous shift's inclusion of sprinkles across a portion of our SW CWA, and have updated that mention where the chance is greatest for measurable precip (but still below 15%). Temps have been on track so far this shift, and min temp fcst looks good as-is.

The short wave moves south of the area and to our east Saturday taking the moisture and forcing with it. Expect clearing skies through the day. The early clouds and cool air mass will keep highs a few degrees below normal. Have lowered dew points from the guidance blend given the continued dry air mass over the area. Uncertain if another Fire Danger Statement will be needed for NE GA as the cooler temps keep any sub-25% RH values less than the required 4 hours. That said, RH will again be very low but winds should be on the light side, keeping us from reaching Red Flag Warning category.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 117 pm Friday: The rest of the weekend and into early next week continues to look cool and very dry as we remain under a deep N/NW flow as the axis of a mean mid/upper level trof slowly moves off the East Coast. A fairly rigorous-looking short wave will drop down into the trof on Saturday night and Sunday morning, but this feature will be extremely moisture-starved with little more than a patch of mid-level clouds to note its passage. At the sfc, dry high pressure will continue to dominate, with dewpoints probably mixing out each afternoon and RH falling down around 20 pct Sunday and 25 pct Monday. Temps should be about a category below normal Sunday, but then right around normal Monday as the air mass continues to modify.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 2:30 pm Friday: Canadian high pressure will be centered over the Carolinas and heights will build in response to a trough digging across the desert southwest Monday night into Thursday. Friday the high pressure center slides off the East Coast but will continue to ridge back into the Southeastern US while a trough stretching from from the Great Lakes region into the Northeastern US digs southward. High temps will gradually warm throughout next week. Highs be about 5 to 10 degrees above average for Tuesday and Wednesday becoming about 10 degrees above normal Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR. Cirrus/alto decks will thicken and lower thru the evening ahead of a shortwave to our west, which will dive south of the region by morning. This will enhance the lift from an area of weak low-level convergence across northern GA and upstate SC. This is expected to result in very light bands of precipitation, most likely amounting to only sprinkles. KAND is the only site where this is expected, and it gets the lowest cigs of any site, around 060. A light northerly breeze should persist into morning; departure of the shortwave and midlevel moisture will lead to a clearing trend in the latter half of the day. Winds then will back to NW-WNW across KCLT/KHKY and WSW in SC; KAVL will see a steady NW wind.

Outlook: Dry high pressure builds in again late Saturday, remaining in control well into next week with VFR conditions prevailing.

Confidence Table .

00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z 18-00Z KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAVL High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

FIRE WEATHER. An exceptionally dry air mass already over our region will become reinforced over the weekend, lingering at least through early next week. Highs will be a little cooler Saturday but RH values will fall to near or below 25% again. It's uncertain if NE GA will reach the required 4 hours of sub-25% RH as dew points may remain elevated due to an inverted trough there, so Fire Danger Statement potential will need to be reevaluated. Chances of increased fire danger will increase Sunday and Monday with warming temps and dry air mass leading to sub-25% RH across most of the area. Winds increase again Sunday approaching criterion, but become light Monday. Seems almost certain a Fire Danger Statement will be needed across NE GA both days. Will have to coordinate with NC/SC land managers to see if a statement will be needed for Sunday or even Monday.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. NC . None. SC . None.

SYNOPSIS . MPR NEAR TERM . RWH/Wimberley SHORT TERM . PM LONG TERM . AP AVIATION . Wimberley FIRE WEATHER . RWH/Wimberley


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Macon County Airport, NC15 mi38 minNW 610.00 miFair48°F14°F25%1020.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for K1A5

Wind History from 1A5 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4
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CalmSW3NW6NW9NW4CalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmW6CalmNW11
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1 day agoCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW7N9NW6
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN7CalmW4N3N5NW8NW6NW6NW9NW8NW4

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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