Tuesday, August4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Dillard, GA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 8:31PM Tuesday August 4, 2020 10:01 AM EDT (14:01 UTC) Moonrise 8:37PMMoonset 6:29AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dillard, GA
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location: 35.01, -83.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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FXUS62 KGSP 041106 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 706 AM EDT Tue Aug 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. Now that Tropical Cyclone Isaias is moving away from our area, a more typical summertime pattern of afternoon and evening thunderstorms can be expected to return today and persist for the remainder of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 650 AM: Low stratus is present across a good portion of the area, mainly along rivers and across the lower Piedmont where the heaviest rain fell late Monday. The mtn valley clouds appear thicker than usual, so they may take a full 2 hours to erode; the Piedmont stratus is likely to break up sooner. Beneath the Piedmont stratus, vsby readings have really crashed in the last 30-60 min, so we will fire off a quick SPS to mention the brief dense fog before the sun has an impact.

Today likely will prove to be a comparatively mundane day, weather-wise, although destabilization should occur as usual this time of year. A convergence zone along and just east of the Escarpment makes initiation most likely there, and westerly shear associated with the faster flow around the MS Valley trough will enhance storm motion eastward toward the NW NC Piedmont. Though convection may be hindered by weak lapse rates just above the CCL, still looks to warrant chance-range PoPs in those areas. Revised PoPs with this update reflect more of the CAM consensus, which allowed us to go dry over more of the southern CWA, away from the terrain influence. Though profiles are fairly dry, it looks like a case where the shear is too strong for pulse storms but not strong enough to maintain organization, which means the overall severe risk is relatively low. A few near-severe gusts certainly could occur from the stronger clusters, however. Max temps near normal; no heat index issues expected.

The axis of the trough will make slight eastward progress, but remain just west of the CWA tonight. This could result in isolated development of new storms well past the diurnal peak, so PoP is slow to diminish. Seeing some signals for mountain valley fog to return, and possibly where the soils are still soaked too. Mins near normal.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. As of 230 am EDT Tuesday: An amplified flow pattern will be in place across the CONUS on Wednesday, with broad ridging over the southwestern U.S., and a persistent trough over the eastern two- thirds of the nation. Fairly moist profiles will continue over the southeast with light southwesterly flow in place. A decaying boundary should provide enough focus, combined with diurnal instability, to lead to above climo PoPs during the afternoon and evening hours.

The eastern trough will deamplify slightly on Thursday. However, moisture will persist in profiles with another round of robust diurnal convection expected. Weak lapse rates on both days suggest that instability will be modest enough to permit mainly garden variety thunderstorms through the period. The NAM features quite a bit higher SBCAPE, but some dewpoint mixing should nudge instability back toward the less unstable GFS both days. Temperatures will be near climo through the period.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 240 am EDT Tuesday: Additional mid-level shortwaves will round the eastern trough on Friday, leading to another day of scattered to numerous diurnal thunderstorms with near climo temperatures.

The upper flow pattern will then flatten out a bit over the weekend. The modest height rises will lead to warmer temperatures over the southeast, with typical scattered summertime convection each day. Very modest mid-level lapse rates should permit storms to remain mostly garden variety with somewhat limited severe potential. The weak upper ridge over the east will persist into Monday, but with a northern tier uptick in convective coverage as forcing from shortwaves improves in the WNW flow aloft. Temperatures should recover to a few degrees above climo by the end of the period on Monday.

AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. At KCLT and Elsewhere: IFR to LIFR stratus is filling the mountain valleys at issuance time, affecting KAVL until 13-14z, possibly even a little later based on the extent/appearance of the stratus on satellite. More ragged decks are seen very close to the other sites, so TEMPOs have been used liberally in the first hour of the period, but it looks more likely to erode with the rising sun.

Routine midsummer chances of aftn SHRA/TSRA are in the fcst this afternoon, with activity clustering near the Blue Ridge Escarpment midday to mid-aftn, and tending to propagate east into the NC Piedmont. Chances are a little lower than climatology. VCSH is mentioned at all sites except KAND, with a TEMPO at KAVL and PROB30 at KHKY, since these sites are nearer the terrain. Some activity may hold on later into the evening with the aid of an upper trough moving over the region. Restrictions look likely Wed morning in the mtn valleys once again, but confidence is low on any restrictions elsewhere; sites hit by thunderstorms late in the day or this evening will be at some risk of daybreak fog.

Outlook: Diurnally-driven afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible thru the rest of the work week. Morning restrictions will also be possible, especially over the usual mountain valleys.

Confidence Table .

11-17Z 17-23Z 23-05Z 05-06Z KCLT High 80% High 100% High 100% High 100% KGSP High 80% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAVL Med 65% High 100% High 100% High 83% KHKY High 85% High 100% High 100% High 100% KGMU Med 75% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAND High 85% High 100% High 100% High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. NC . None. SC . None.

SYNOPSIS . 08 NEAR TERM . 08 SHORT TERM . HG LONG TERM . HG AVIATION . 08


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Macon County Airport, NC15 mi67 minN 010.00 miOvercast67°F63°F90%1018.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for K1A5

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Last 24hrN6SW4CalmE3CalmCalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmN4CalmW8W8W3CalmSW4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3
2 days agoCalmE3E6SE6W5SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.