Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Dillard, GA

KEY MESSAGES
1. Fire weather concerns continue amid a dry and stagnant weather pattern. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for this afternoon and evening between Noon to 8 PM for the North Carolina Piedmont and northeast Georgia. Temperatures will be very warm with values 10-15 degrees above normal.
2. Hot and dry through Saturday with high temperatures approaching daily records. A cold front may bring some rainfall to our area on Sunday, but any amounts will likely be minimal. Near-normal temperatures expected early next week.

DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Fire weather concerns continue amid a dry and stagnant weather pattern. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for this afternoon and evening between Noon to 8 PM for the North Carolina Piedmont and northeast Georgia. Temperatures will be very warm with values 10-15 degrees above normal.

Mostly clear and dry tonight will lead to partly to mostly sunny skies during the daytime as a Bermuda surface ridge continues to filter in southwesterly winds across the CWFA. The Southeast upper ridge will hold steady over the next 24-36 hours as anomalously high thicknesses remain in place. In this case, expect afternoon highs to top out in the mid to upper 80s east of the mountains, mid 80s in the major mountain valleys, and 70s in the higher elevations. Vertical profiles show a deep mixing layer during peak heating this afternoon as the boundary layer taps into stronger winds at the top (~825-800mb). Expect some low-end gusts during the afternoon as a result. With some drier air aloft remaining in place, dewpoint mixing combined with temperatures rising a category or so higher compared to Monday will lead to RH values dropping to 25-35% for most locations outside of the mountains despite slightly higher dewpoints as little moisture return accompanies the low-level southwesterly flow. This will continue to elevate fire weather concerns, especially with ongoing drought concerns and higher heat stress with warmer temperatures.

The Fire Danger Statement for the North Carolina Piedmont was in coordination with the North Carolina Forest Service and is in effect from Noon to 8 PM today. The Fire Danger Statement for northeast Georgia is for ongoing dry fuels and RH values getting close to the critical threshold of 30%. The Fire Danger Statement for northeast Georgia is also in effect from Noon to 8 PM today.

On-and-off fire weather concerns will persist through the week as near-critical RHs and high heat stress are expected each afternoon. This combined with very dry vegetation and low RHs will provide enough of a concern for potential wildfire development, so daily Fire Danger Products throughout the rest of this week remain possible.

Key message 2: Hot and dry through Saturday with high temperatures approaching daily records. A cold front may bring some rainfall to our area on Sunday, but any amounts will likely be minimal.
Near-normal temperatures expected early next week.

Upper ridging will build over the Southeast into Thursday while the Bermuda surface high keeps warm, SLY flow over our area. An embedded upper shortwave trof will move over the Carolinas on Friday, with heights rebounding quickly in its wake. A much more substantial upper trof will pass just to our north late Sunday into Monday and push a robust cold front thru our area on Sunday.
A weaker cold front does approach the western Carolinas late Thurs, however it gets pushed northward by the Bermuda high. I can't rule out a few showers over the NC mtns late Thursday into early Friday, but any precipitation amounts would be minimal. The stronger front on Sunday has the potential to bring more widespread showers to our area, but unfortunately the fropa still appears pretty fast and the latest model guidance continues to trend drier overall. It's looking like any precipitation that we get from this system probably won't have much impact on the current drought.

While temperatures will be summer-like and approach daily records, the humidity will remain lower. Relative humidity values in the 25 to 35% range are expected each afternoon through the weekend, with values below 20% possible early next week. In addition, gusty winds are expected across our area on Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday which will likely increase fire danger. Temperatures cool to near-normal behind the front on Monday and Tuesday but the airmass remains very dry.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. South to southwesterly winds will persist through the day at 5-10 kts with some low-end gusts possible during peak heating. A deck of high clouds are moving across the terminals.
Can't rule out some spurts of fair weather cu during the afternoon.
Winds will gradually subside after sunset this evening.

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions persist through at least Thursday.

CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 04-14

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 86 2006 36 1907 62 1922 24 1950 KCLT 89 1941 46 1907 69 1922 27 1950 KGSP 92 1916 48 1901 67 1922 22 1907

RECORDS FOR 04-15

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 89 1972 42 1943 64 1887 23 1907 KCLT 89 1936 46 1889 66 2006 28 1907 KGSP 91 2006 45 1913 69 1922 22 1907

RECORDS FOR 04-16

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 87 2006 42 1905 62 1945 26 1943 KCLT 89 2006 49 1890 64 1998 29 2008 1896 1991 1962 1945 KGSP 88 1888 54 1903 64 1945 24 1907

RECORDS FOR 04-17

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 89 1896 45 1890 63 1927 26 1904 KCLT 94 1896 47 1890 66 1896 30 2018 1949 KGSP 92 2006 51 1904 63 1927 25 1905

RECORDS FOR 04-18

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 90 1896 44 1921 60 1927 28 1905 1891 KCLT 93 1896 45 1983 66 1896 32 2001 KGSP 89 2002 51 1983 66 1927 28 1905 1967

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from noon EDT today through this evening for GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from noon EDT today through this evening for NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082.
SC...None.