Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oriental, NC

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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 262022 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 322 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will shift south of the area tonight. Fast moving low pressure may bring a brief period of rain for Monday before high pressure builds back in through mid to late week. A coastal storm is possible next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 300 PM Sun . Upper air analysis shows an amplifying upper ridge over the western CONUS and a complex upper low continuing to swirl over portions of New England and Quebec. A well-defined shortwave was noted on WV imagery moving into the southern MS valley and will be the main weather-maker for our area in the short term.

At the surface, a broad 1020mb high was analyzed over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This high will gradually shift south of our area tonight and with subsidence aloft expect another quiet night. Cloud cover will gradually increase overnight as shortwave approaches the Carolinas and PWATs rise. Lows expected to hold around climo tonight with most inland areas reaching into the 30s except for portions of the immediate coast.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY/. As of 315 PM Sun . Aforementioned shortwave approaches the Carolinas Monday with cloud cover increasing and a chance for some spotty rainfall. The best chance will be from midday into the evening hours as moisture deepens but with the best vorticity advection displaced to our south and lacking jet dynamics expect total accumulations to be light - around or under a tenth of an inch. Only change to PoPs was to extend PoPs into the overnight hours based on latest hi-res guidance trends. Highs quite similar to today, reaching into the low to mid 50s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 315 AM Sunday . Most of the upcoming week will be dry and seasonable. Another southern stream system may impact the area at the end of the week into next weekend, but considerable model differences exist.

Monday night through Friday . Most of the week beyond Monday will be dry with seasonable temperatures. Highs should generally be in the low to mid 50s, with lows ranging from the low/mid 30s inland and low/mid 40s Outer Banks. The real shot for measurable precipitation comes Thursday as another decent mid-level shortwave crosses the area, but precipitation will again be light and largely confined to the coast, so kept PoPs quite low.

Friday Night and Saturday . While the longer-term models show a deepening trough and strong shortwave diving south toward the Gulf Coast before lifting out to the northeast, there are considerable differences on timing, location and strength of the ensuing surface system. The recent trends in the models have been for a weaker low further offshore, reducing the amounts of precipitation and overall impacts to the area, compared to yesterday's model cycle. However, still quite a bit of uncertainty at this time range, so will play it safe and keep low chance PoPs in the forecast. GFS and Canadian are faster with the onset of precipitation, showing more of a Friday start time, while the ECWMF brings in the bulk of the precipitation on Saturday. Temperatures still remain fairly close to normal through Saturday.

AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Short Term /through 18Z Monday/ . As of 1225 PM Sun . High confidence in VFR conditions through the period with clear skies at all sites this hour as high pressure to our south gradually slides east. Light westerly winds continue today, becoming light and variable tonight. Cirrus coverage increases late tonight as weak impulse begins to approach the area, with gradually lowering cigs through Monday. Spotty shower activity is possible late in the period but should not significantly impact operations.

Long Term /Monday night through Thursday/ . As of 315 AM Sun . VFR conditions are expected Monday Night through Thursday as high pressure remains in control of the area's weather.

MARINE. Short Term /Tonight and Monday/ . As of 315 PM Sun . Wave guidance has evidently been running hot today, as observed outer water seas are running about two feet lower than forecast. With no apparent near term wind surge to drive heights back up, opted to drop the SCA. Seas will remain at around 4-5 feet for the period with westerly flow of around 10-15 kt with slightly higher winds for the outer waters.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/ . As of 325 AM Sunday . A strong mid- level shortwave, embedded in a deep trough along the Atlantic coast, will pass across the area Monday night and Tuesday and will lead to a period of NW winds 15-20 knot winds and seas 3-5 feet, below SCA criteria. For Tuesday night through Thursday, winds should generally be N 5-15 knots with seas 2-5 feet.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . MS SHORT TERM . MS LONG TERM . CTC AVIATION . CTC/MS MARINE . CTC/MS

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC	22 mi	51 min	WSW 8 G 12				1013.2 hPa (-0.8)
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC	30 mi	51 min	WSW 9.9 G 13	51°F			1013.3 hPa (-1.0)	42°F

Wind History for Beaufort, NC

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC	13 mi	1.9 hrs	W 17	10.00 mi	Fair	66°F	34°F	30%	1013 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC	15 mi	57 min	WNW 14 G 19	10.00 mi	A Few Clouds	55°F	30°F	40%	1013 hPa
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC	19 mi	57 min	W 9	10.00 mi	Fair	53°F	30°F	43%	1013.3 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC	21 mi	1.9 hrs	SW 11	10.00 mi	Fair	53°F	37°F	57%	1012.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNBT

Wind History from NBT (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina

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Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (16,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC

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