Sunday, September15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fairfield Harbour, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 7:17PM Sunday September 15, 2019 10:56 PM EDT (02:56 UTC) Moonrise 7:24PMMoonset 6:57AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 1000 Pm Edt Sun Sep 15 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday evening...
Rest of today..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, except 2 to 4 ft near shore. Dominant period 11 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Isolated showers.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 11 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Dominant period 11 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Tue..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft, except 3 to 5 ft near shore. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, increasing to rough in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tue night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough. A slight chance of showers.
Wed..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough.
Wed night..NE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough.
Thu..NE winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers rough, diminishing to choppy.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairfield Harbour, NC
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location: 35.07, -76.97     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 160148
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
948 pm edt Sun sep 15 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will extend over the area through much of next
week. Another back door cold front will move through by Tuesday
night. Tropical cyclone humberto will bring rough marine
conditions and strong rip currents to the waters next week but
little other direct impacts to eastern north carolina. Fall-like
weather filters in to close out the work week.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
As of 945 pm Sunday... A few isolated showers remain over the
coastal plain this evening but are expected to dissipate rapidly
now that the Sun has set. As diurnal clouds diminish with loss
of heating, the stage will be set for excellent radiational
cooling with clear skies and light winds. This will result in
another round of dense fog and stratus forming after midnight.

Fairly uniform low temperatures are expected across the region
tonight, ranging from 69 well inland to 74 degrees beaches.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through 6 pm Monday
As of 350 pm Sunday... A carbon copy of the past several days is
expected Monday with partly sunny skies and only isolated
showers as a persistent surface trough lingers near the nc
coast. Followed guidance trends with high temperatures a couple
of degrees warmer in most spots Monday with lower 90s inland and
mid upper 80s beaches.

Long term Monday night through Sunday
As of 330 pm Sunday... The work week will start off with a
strong upper ridge centered over the central conus, and upper
trough over new england and mid-atlantic states, and TC humberto
centered east of jacksonville, fl. Meanwhile, TC humberto is
expected to make an ene turn well east of the ga sc coast.

Tuesday... Weak shortwave energy and an attendant backdoor cold
front pushes south across the area bringing isolated to widely
scattered showers across the area while humberto continues to
slowly track ene well to the south.

Wednesday through Thursday... Strong high pressure builds in
from the north through the end of the week while humberto
continues to track ene across the western atlantic. Tight
pressure gradients between these systems will bring breezy
northeast winds and a cooler and drier airmass that will give us
a first hint of fall. Highs expected generally in the 70s area
wide. Low temps will drop back into the mid upr 50s interior to
60s on the beaches. Will have to watch for beach erosion and
perhaps some minor coastal flood issues for prone areas of the
obx due to the prolonged gusty NE winds and high surf.

Saturday through Sunday... Nerly gradient begin to relax by the
weekend as the high becomes centered over the area bringing
lighter winds and a moderating airmass with dry conditions
continuing across the region. High temps moderate back to near
climo in the 80s, with lows into the 60s.

Aviation 02z Monday through Friday
Short term through Monday ...

as of 600 pm sun... MainlyVFR for all sites through early
evening, then high confidence in lifr ifr conditions developing
5-7z in fog and low stratus clouds with strong radiational
cooling expected overnight. The ifr conditions should improve to
MVFR by 14z but subVFR conditions could persist into early
afternoon as the fog and low clouds will be slow to dissipate.

Vfr conditions are expected after 18z.

Long term Mon night through Fri ...

as of 330 pm Sunday... PredVFR conditions expected for most of
the long term, though patchy fog will be possible again Tuesday
morning. A backdoor cold front pushes across the area on tue
with some iso showers possible. Strong high pressure builds in
late Tue through the end of the week with humberto passing well
offshore bringing tightening pressure gradients and gusty north
to northeast winds. Limited fog threat with dry air mass in
place.

Marine
Short term tonight and Monday ...

as of 945 pm Sunday... No changes to previous thinking. Latest
wavewatch, swan and ECMWF wave models show the beginning of the
se swell from humberto arriving along our southern coastal
waters around midday Monday. Seas at the buoy 30 miles SE of new
river have increased to 6 ft already this evening so will issue
the SCA for the southern waters south of hatteras earlier.

Elsewhere, sca's for the waters from oregon inlet to hatteras
will begin at 00z Tuesday. Tonight, winds should be E NE at 10
knots or less with seas running 3-6 feet with 8-10 second
swells. Winds continue E NE 5-15 knots Monday, but seas edge up
to 6 feet or better by midday Monday.

Long term Monday night through Friday ...

as of 350 pm sun... SCA conditions expected through much of the
long term with gusty nerly winds, large seas and and dangerous
surf conditions as combined swells from TC humberto and pressure
gradient between building high pressure and humberto well
offshore impact the coastal waters.

A backdoor cold front will push across the area Tuesday with
strong high pressure building in form the north through the
remainder of the week and TC humberto continuing to track ene
well away from the area. NE winds continue to strengthen
on tue, peaking on Wed around 20-30 kt, then only slowly
diminish on thu, becoming lighter on Fri in the 10-20 kt range.

Swell from humberto will peak around 8-11 ft Wednesday into
Thursday, the begin to slowly subside on Friday, though remain
above 6 ft into at least the first part of the weekend.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement through Monday evening for ncz195-196-
199-203>205.

Marine... Small craft advisory from noon Monday to 3 pm edt Saturday for
amz154-156-158.

Small craft advisory from 8 pm Monday to 3 pm edt Saturday for
amz152.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Jme ctc
short term... Ctc
long term... Sk tl
aviation... Jme tl
marine... Jme ctc tl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 29 mi62 min E 5.1 G 6 79°F 84°F1018.8 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 39 mi56 min ENE 9.9 G 9.9 80°F 1018 hPa (+0.3)77°F

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC4 mi62 minE 310.00 miOvercast78°F75°F90%1018.6 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC15 mi62 minESE 310.00 miRain77°F72°F85%1018.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEWN

Wind History from EWN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6NE3E5CalmNE4N4N4NE4NE5NE5N3N3NE4E4N4SE4CalmCalmE6S5S3CalmCalmE3
1 day agoNE9NE8NE8NE9NE7N8NE6N7N7N9NE8NE8NE8NE9NE10NE11E9E9E11E9E6E3NE5NE4
2 days agoS3SW3SW3SW3CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmN3NE6NE9NE11NE10NE9SE8E10
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Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:26 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:20 AM EDT     2.47 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:47 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:32 PM EDT     2.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.510.60.30.40.71.21.72.22.52.42.21.71.20.80.50.40.611.62.12.42.4

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:24 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:14 AM EDT     1.52 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:45 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:26 PM EDT     1.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.20.90.60.30.20.20.40.71.11.41.51.51.310.70.50.30.20.40.711.31.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.