Fairfield Harbour, NC Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fairfield Harbour, NC

May 7, 2024 4:49 PM EDT (20:49 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:09 AM   Sunset 8:00 PM
Moonrise 4:37 AM   Moonset 6:49 PM 
  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Top   Marine   7-Day   NWS   Buoy   Airport   Tide   Map   GEOS   Radar  

Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      HIDE   Help
AMZ137 NEuse And Bay Rivers- 322 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024

Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms this evening.

Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.

Wed night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight. A chance of showers and tstms.

Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves a moderate chop, increasing to choppy in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms.

Thu night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.

Fri - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.

Fri night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.

Sat - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.

Sat night - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop.

Sun - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.

Sun night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 322 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024

Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - High pressure will continue to strengthen offshore while weak troughing continues for the next few days, as warm moist southerly flow leads to unsettled conditions. A strong frontal system will move through Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fairfield Harbour, NC
   Hourly   EDIT   Help   Map   HIDE
NEW! Add second zone forecast


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
      HIDE   Help   
NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS62 KMHX 072040 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 440 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will continue to strengthen offshore while weak troughing continues for the next few days, as warm moist southerly flow leads to unsettled conditions. A strong frontal system will move through Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 415 PM Tuesday...

Regional satellite imagery shows a compact area of cyclonic flow across eastern VA/eastern NC, associated with a mid-level shortwave that is shifting off the coast. Over the past hour, or so, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have bubbled up, but water vapor imagery shows a layer of dry air advecting into the area aloft, and there's likely some subsidence behind the departing wave. Despite modest instability and shear, I expect the dry air entrainment and subsidence will decrease the risk of deep/sustained convection. We'll continue to monitor trends on satellite and radar, but the overall severe weather risk continues to look LOW through the remainder of the evening.
Of note, if any deeper, more sustained, convection can materialize, the shear/instability combo would be supportive of 40-60 mph winds and hail up to half-dollar size.

Convection is expected to be primarily diurnally-driven, with a weakening trend expected after sunset.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 145 PM Tuesday...

Mid-upper level ridging will shift offshore on Wednesday, allowing more of a zonal flow aloft to develop from the TN Valley east through the Carolinas. Within this flow, an impulse, or two, lifting out of the Lower MS Valley will traverse the Appalachians and Carolinas later Wednesday through Wednesday night, interacting with a moist and unstable airmass to support an increased risk of clusters of thunderstorms in a broad zone from the TN Valley to the Carolinas. Locally, there will also be some potential for convection along the seabreeze (which will tend to be pinned closer to the coast thanks to the westerly low-level flow forecast).

This type of setup is a classic one for MCS development, and I expect a MCS, or two, to impact portions of the Carolinas Wednesday/Wednesday night. This type of pattern can also be a low confidence one, though, as models can sometimes struggle with the evolution of convection as it moves downstream. This is a pattern, though, that can support a longer-lived MCS running the length of NC. And, locally, there is also the potential for seabreeze convection unrelated to any MCS', especially with less ridging/subsidence compared to today. With all of the above in mind, I have opted to go with a broad-brushed 30-40% chance of thunderstorms for the entire Wednesday/Wednesday night period.
We'll continue to refine when/where the best chance will be in the coming shifts.

From a hazards standpoint, any MCS that develops will carry a risk of damaging winds. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steeper than today (as high as 6.5-7.0 C/km), so hail will be a concern both with linear segments and with any discrete storms that manage to develop on the seabreeze. It's also worth pointing out that forecast MLCAPE of 2000-3000j/kg and deep layer shear of 25-30kt will be supportive of instances of higher-end severe weather for this area (ie. 60+ mph winds and >1" size hail). The caveat is that the evolution of upstream convection will have a significant impact on our airmass, as any early convection would tend to keep instability lower, and vice-versa. SPC has recently upgraded a portion of our area to a "Slight" risk of severe weather, which appears warranted given all of the factors outlined above.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As 330 AM Mon...There have been a few changes in the forecast since the previous update but the overall trend remains the same as ENC will remain unsettled into this weekend with a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms into Friday before potentially drying out on Sat. Highest risk for severe weather still looks to be on Thursday. High pressure ridging finally overspreads ENC early next week.

Thursday...Have made some tweaks to the forecast for Thurs with the latest data and trends in mind. Upper level zonal flow begins to overspread ENC on Wed out ahead of a positively tilted upper trough which will be located in the Upper Midwest to start the period. Within this zonal flow, guidance has come into better agreement that a weak mid level disturbance will trek across the Carolinas and then offshore Wed evening into Thurs morning.

As Wednesday's shortwave pushes off the coast, any leftover shower and thunderstorm activity will quickly weaken Wed night into Thurs and push offshore. As we get into Thurs, upper level trough migrates over to the Great Lakes region while a jet streak begins to expand over the Mid-Atlantic increasing lift.
At the mid levels a second and stronger mid level shortwave rounds the base of the trough and tracks over the Mid-Atlantic Thurs afternoon/evening while at the surface deepening low pressure system in the Great Lakes tracks NE'wards into the Northeast with its associated cold front nearing western NC and a prefrontal trough setting up over the Coastal Plain Thurs evening. With ample MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg over ENC in the afternoon, stronger wind shear 30-40 kts, and slightly stronger forcing, ENC will once again have another threat for scattered showers and isolated to widely scattered strong to severe tstms.
Once again the main hazard within the strongest storms will be damaging winds and hail. Given the higher risk for severe wx on Thurs ENC is in a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather Thurs afternoon and evening. Highs each day get into the low 90s inland and 80s across the OBX while lows only get down into the 60s.

Friday through early next week... Upper level troughing finally pivots out of the Great Lakes and overspread the Mid-Atlantic on Fri into Sat with the last and likely strongest mid level shortwave rounding this troughs base on Fri. This is where the biggest change in the forecast has been as at the surface, low pressure in the Northeast will continue to trek NE'wards while its associated cold front finally tracks across the region slowing as it pushes offshore. A wave of low pressure develops along this frontal boundary on Fri as well and tracks along or near the coast. The eventual track will have a major impact on whether the area sees thunder on Fri as a low track just offshore keeps us on the cool and more stable side while a low track just inland gives us a threat for additional thunderstorms on Fri. For now kept thunder in the grids for Fri afternoon and evening until we get more clarity on the eventual evolution of the forecast. Either way Friday looks to have the best shot at widespread precip. Through the weekend and into next week general troughing remains over the Eastern Seaboard before gradually ejecting out into the Canadian Maritimes. Will have one more chance at a frontal passage Sun evening into Mon before surface ridging begins to overspread ENC from the west.
Temps do cool over the weekend closer to normal.

AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 18z Wednesday/...
As of 145 PM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Lower TSRA risk today compared to yesterday

- Increased TSRA risk on Wednesday

FORECAST DETAILS

A few SHRA have recently developed across northern sections of Eastern NC, but the coverage has been much lower compared to yesterday. I expect this to continue to be the case, with the best chance of a SHRA or TSRA being confined closer to the close where the seabreeze will offer the best lift. Otherwise, quieter conditions expected through tonight for aviation interests. On Wednesday, the risk of TSRA is forecast to increase once again, however the latest guidance suggests this risk will be focused after the current 18z TAF cycle. Given radar trends this afternoon, I opted to remove VCTS from the TAFs given lowering confidence. I have also kept TS out of the TAFs for Wednesday, as the better chance appears to be later in the day.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Tue... Expecting primarily VFR conditions outside of any shower and tstm activity Wed night and Thurs with the best shot at seeing widespread sub-VFR conditions on Fri. VFR conditions then return on Sat across the CWA

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday night/...
As of 415 PM Tuesday...

Breezy southwesterly winds of 10-20kt will continue through tonight. The potential still exists for a period of 25kt winds associated with the strengthening thermal gradient. However, winds haven't responded as much as I thought they would, which lends itself to lower confidence through the evening regarding the Small Craft Advisory. Buoys south of Cape Lookout are getting close to 25kt, and given what happened yesterday, plus the overall environment not changing much, I'll keep the SCA going to account for the potential. Through this evening, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible (20-40% chance), with the risk shifting beyond 20nm after sunset.

Wednesday is looking similar to today, with southwesterly winds increasing through the day as the thermal gradient strengthens.
Wednesday's gradient is expected to be stronger than today's, and another round of SCA conditions appears likely (50-70% chance). We'll let the current SCA run through tonight, then consider hoisting another advisory for later tomorrow through tomorrow night. Once again, there will be a risk of showers and thunderstorms, especially mid-afternoon through the overnight hours. Through Wednesday night, seas of 3-5 ft will be common, with 5-6 footers possible.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 340 AM Mon...Not much change in the forecast overall as unsettled weather will remain in place into the end of the week promoting a daily chance at showers and thunderstorms across our waters each day. Locally enhanced winds and seas will be possible within any thunderstorm that makes its way into the area. Otherwise the background winds remain SW'rly at 10-20 kts on Wed with a few gusts up near 25 kts at times Wed aftn and evening as the thermal gradient sets up. As we get into Thursday, gradient tightens out ahead of an approaching cold front allowing winds to increase closer to 15-25 kts with gusts in excess of 20-30 kts across our waters. Strongest winds will be located across our coastal waters and larger sounds likely necessitating a SCA for Thurs across portions of ENC. As the front nears and begins to push offshore on Fri winds decrease closer to 10-15 kts and become more W'rly on Fri before becoming NW'rly and increasing slightly to 15-20 kts Fri night behind the frontal passage. NW'rly winds continue through Sat before winds return to a S'rly direction towards the end of the weekend. 3-5 ft seas along our coastal waters on Wed increase to 4-7 ft on Thurs as the winds increase with some 8 ft seas possible along the Gulf Stream waters. Seas gradually ease over the weekend as winds ease down to 2-4 ft.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154- 156-158.




Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       HIDE   Help
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 29 mi49 min WSW 8.9G16 75°F 76°F29.77
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 39 mi49 min SSW 14G20 74°F 29.80


Wind History for Beaufort, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      HIDE   Help
toggle option: (graph/table)



Airport Reports
    EDIT      HIDE   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KEWN COASTAL CAROLINA REGIONAL,NC 4 sm55 minWSW 10G1710 smMostly Cloudy84°F66°F55%29.77
KNKT CHERRY POINT MCAS /CUNNINGHAM FIELD/,NC 13 sm10 minWSW 0910 smOvercast82°F66°F58%29.77
Link to 5 minute data for KEWN


Wind History from EWN
(wind in knots)
toggle option: (graph/table)


Tide / Current for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
   
EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   HIDE   Help
Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:09 AM EDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:52 AM EDT     2.21 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:06 PM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:15 PM EDT     2.76 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet
12
am
1.1
1
am
0.4
2
am
-0.1
3
am
-0.3
4
am
-0.1
5
am
0.3
6
am
1
7
am
1.6
8
am
2.1
9
am
2.2
10
am
2
11
am
1.6
12
pm
1
1
pm
0.4
2
pm
-0
3
pm
-0.2
4
pm
-0.1
5
pm
0.4
6
pm
1.1
7
pm
1.9
8
pm
2.5
9
pm
2.8
10
pm
2.7
11
pm
2.3


Tide / Current for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
   EDIT      HIDE   Help
Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:07 AM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:37 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:46 AM EDT     1.36 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:04 PM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:09 PM EDT     1.70 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Spooner Creek, North Carolina, Tide feet
12
am
1.1
1
am
0.6
2
am
0.2
3
am
-0
4
am
-0.2
5
am
-0.1
6
am
0.2
7
am
0.6
8
am
1
9
am
1.3
10
am
1.4
11
am
1.2
12
pm
0.9
1
pm
0.6
2
pm
0.2
3
pm
-0
4
pm
-0.1
5
pm
-0
6
pm
0.3
7
pm
0.7
8
pm
1.2
9
pm
1.5
10
pm
1.7
11
pm
1.6


Weather Map
      HIDE   Help


GEOS Local Image of east us   
EDIT   HIDE



Morehead City, NC,





NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE