Sunrise 6:18 AM   Sunset 8:26 PM Moonrise 2:05 PM   Moonset 2:19 AM

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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 316 Am Edt Fri May 17 2024
Today - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast this afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of showers this morning. Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the evening. Saturday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of rain in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Saturday night - Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.Sunday - Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 4 seconds and east 2 feet at 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Sunday night - West winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: east 2 feet at 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Monday - North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of rain in the morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Monday night - North winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Tuesday - Northeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of rain in the afternoon. Tuesday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 316 Am Edt Fri May 17 2024
Synopsis -
weak high pressure will linger today before a weak area of low pressure lifts to the north tonight, dragging a warm into the waters from the west. A slow moving cold front trailing the low will gradually push across the water late Saturday through Sunday, renewing chances for Thunderstorms. Winds will turn northerly as high pressure Wedges against a low pressure situated northeast of the waters early next week. High pressure builds directly over the waters during the middle part of next week.
Gulf stream -
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 16, 2024 at 1200 utc - .
64 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 73 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 82 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 97 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KGSP 170621 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 221 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front and weak low pressure system will bring frequent chances for showers and thunderstorms today through the weekend. Somewhat drier conditions return early next week resulting in only isolated afternoon and evening showers and storms Monday and Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
As of 1230 AM Fri: Broad area of upper divergence will shift east out of the lower Mississippi Valley this morning, associated with jet streak and shortwave south of the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a convective complex and associated MCV will move along the Gulf Coast. Abundant cirrus are creeping in our direction and should follow the upper ridge axis. Not great confidence as to how well these cirrus will inhibit radiation, particularly as they may arrive too late to completely preclude fog development at least near the major mountain valley and Piedmont rivers.

Vort maxes from the Gulf Coast convection look to advect northeast to our vicinity later this morning, along with cooler air at 700 mb. Prog soundings show MUCAPE ticking upward to match, and CAMs variously develop a wave of showers or storms from around midday and early afternoon, although not in particularly good agreement as to where this occurs. Light and increasingly moist low level southerly flow will develop and could produce some light precip near the SW NC mountains or Escarpment as well. Thus PoPs look to increase a bit faster than we had previously advertised. Meanwhile, warm front will shift northward thru the Deep South, associated with developing sfc low to our southwest. As this front nears, PoPs generally increase further through the afternoon, with likely to categorical chances for the whole area this evening. The clouds and showers will keep temps a few degrees below normal in the west, but perhaps a degree or two above normal in the east there these are less of a factor.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 1245 PM EDT Thursday: Short Term Key Messages

1) Widespread Showers and thunderstorms are expected off and on throughout the weekend.

2) Areas of heavy rainfall may lead to isolated flooding issues this weekend.

3) Isolated strong to severe storms are possible through the weekend but confidence remains low at this time.

Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia Friday evening into Friday night as a low pressure system approaches out of the west. There may be a lull in activity the first half of Saturday before another round of showers and thunderstorms returns Saturday afternoon into Saturday night as the low pressure system tracks into the forecast area. Have likely to categorical PoPs (70% to 80%) in place during this timeframe as global models and high-res models agree that there will be multiple rounds of convection. All global models continue to agree that the low will stall over the area on Sunday, thus monotoned likely PoPs (60 to 70%) across the forecast area. With PWATs expected to climb near or above 90th percentile, locally heavy rainfall will be a concern, especially with wet antecedent conditions already in place. The WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook has a Marginal risk across the Carolinas as isolated flash flooding will be possible, especially for areas that saw heavy rainfall the day prior. The flooding threat will steadily increase throughout the weekend as rainfall totals pile up. Currently 0.50- 1.50 inches of rain is expected to fall Friday night through Sunday, with the highest amounts expected to fall across the western and southern zones. Isolated strong to severe storms continue to look possible thoughout the weekend but confidence on this is low as thick cloud cover may limit destabilization. GEFS plumes show less than 1,000 J/kg of SBCAPE through the weekend, with ~35-45 kts of deep shear on Saturday and only ~15-20 kts of deep shear on Sunday.
Thus, Saturday still looks to have the better severe potential, and this matches up with the Day 3 SPC Severe Weather Outlook which has a Marginal risk in place east of the mountains. The main potential hazards with any severe storms that develop are damaging wind gusts and large hail. High temperatures have trended down slightly for the weekend and are now expected to be a few to several degrees below climo. Low temperatures will remain several degrees above climo thanks to both cloud cover and precip.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 100 PM EDT Thursday: The low pressure system will linger over the eastern Carolinas through Monday before gradually pushing offshore Monday evening into Monday night. Thus, maintained chance PoPs (15% to 30%) across much of the forecast area Sunday night into Monday. Upper ridging and sfc high pressure will build into the southeast Monday night into Tuesday night, leading to drier conditions, while the low pressure system lingers just off the Southeast Coast. A cold front will approach out of the west on Wednesday before tracking across the forecast area Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. This will allow shower and thunderstorm chances to return towards the end of the forecast period. High temperatures will remain a few to several degrees below climo on Monday, becoming near climo to a few degrees above climo on Tuesday.
Highs are then expected to become a few to several degrees above climo Wednesday into Thursday. Low temperatures will generally remain a few to several degrees above climo through the period, with the exception Monday night as lows east of the mtns will be near or just below climo.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: Relatively low confidence TAFs with multiple sources of weak forcing and differing signals among guidance members. Cirrus will increase early this morning but deck does not look likely to fill in quickly enough to keep radiation fog at bay in the river valleys. TEMPO MVFR vsby and SCT002 for KAVL, but the other sites chance of fog small enough to omit. Lapse rates will improve after daybreak with arrival of weak shortwave preceding sfc/upper low in the southern Plains. This is expected to spawn scattered SHRA/TSRA in the late morning to early afternoon which has prompted TEMPO impacts earlier in the day than usual. Such convective development is likely to result in spotty low VFR cigs, aside from the higher cloud decks thickening. This activity may weaken or become more isolated before more widespread precip and perhaps embedded TSRA arrive with warm front tonight. Warm front appears likely to produce MVFR and then IFR cigs tonight, with areas of fog developing after precip. Generally southerly winds this period.

Outlook: Periods of convection, which could be widespread at times, are expected through the weekend. Late night/early morning restrictions in low stratus and/or fog will also be possible. Drier weather is expected to return early in the next work week.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

Seacamp Dock
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Fri -- 03:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:58 AM EDT     6.03 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:16 AM EDT     1.37 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:38 PM EDT     6.14 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:46 PM EDT     1.60 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Seacamp Dock, Cumberland Island, Georgia, Tide feet

Chester
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Fri -- 03:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:14 AM EDT     6.03 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:20 AM EDT     1.44 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:54 PM EDT     6.14 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:15 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:50 PM EDT     1.68 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chester, Bells River, St. Marys River, Florida, Tide feet

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