Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
New Bern, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 5:56PM Thursday February 20, 2020 6:42 PM EST (23:42 UTC) Moonrise 5:07AMMoonset 3:12PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 312 Pm Est Thu Feb 20 2020
.gale warning in effect through Friday evening...
Tonight..N winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 50 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft, except 4 to 6 ft near shore. Dominant period 7 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough. Rain.
Fri..N winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft, except 4 to 6 ft near shore. Dominant period 10 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough. A chance of rain, mainly in the morning.
Fri night..N winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 7 to 10 ft, except 4 to 6 ft near shore. Dominant period 11 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers very rough, diminishing to rough after midnight.
Sat..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. NEar shore, seas 3 to 5 ft. Dominant period 11 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop.
Sun..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat.
Sun night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat.
Mon..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat, increasing to a moderate chop. Showers likely.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop. A chance of showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Bern city, NC
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location: 35.09, -77.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 202115 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 415 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure off of the southeast coast will deepen and lift northeast well offshore tonight and Friday. Cold high pressure will rebuild over the area for the weekend, before another area of low pressure impacts the area early to mid next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH Friday AM/. As of 400 PM Thu . Precip shield has encompassed much of the CWA with a few scattered reports of sleet along the Hwy 264 corridor. Mesoanalysis continues to show a bullseye area for frontogenesis parked over that area. The deformation zone will work to concentrate areas of the heaviest precip throughout the event. The HRRR is initializing well, showing the deformation zone with the associated concentrated precip area over the northern counties and pivoting overnight to a more north-south orientation, likely positioning itself along Hwy 17. Highest snow amounts will likely occur north of Hwy 70 with 4-6 inches. Southern counties will still see some accumulations of 2-4 inches and less than 2 inches along the Crystal Coast.

As the event unfolds, we expect rain to begin changing over to mixed precip late afternoon/early evening NW along the Hwy 264 corridor, spreading SE to N. Craven, N. Onslow, and S. Beaufort counties by 03z. The transition time from rain to snow is expected to take place rather gradually, threatening a few hours of robust wintry mix that may cause hazardous travel. Snow will then begin taking over in our NW counties and pushing SE through midnight, afterward which snow will become the dominant ptype along Hwy 17 and west. Snowfall rates are expected to be relatively high, up to 0.5"/hr in and around the deformation zone, which will provide a moderate dendrite growth zone for a few hours. Snow will likely be heavy and wet when it reaches the surface, creating concerns for power outages, reduced visibilities, and slippery roads, particularly within mesoscale bands. As the coastal low moves out to sea, we can see snowfall beginning to taper off NW around 10-12z, eventually clearing out of much of the forecast area by 15z, with any lingering precip SE being predominantly rain.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/. As of 300 PM Thurs . Behind this system Friday skies will clear from west to east, but strong winds will continue. Strong CAA and snow cover will limit surface heating, and temperatures will struggle to reach past the upper 30s, with wind chills in the 20s all day.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 300 PM Thu . Fri night through Sunday . High pres will build in Fri night thru the weekend with dry weather. With expected snow pack and clear skies Fri night expect very cold temps with the normally colder inland areas dropping to around 20. Beaches will be a bit milder with upr 20s to lower 30s. Temps remain cold Sat with highs in the 40s to around 50 with plentiful sunshine. Temps moderate on Sunday as the high builds overhead and hgts aloft increase. Highs shld reach the upr 50s to lower 60s most spots.

Mon through Wednesday . Looks mild and unsettled this period as a complex frontal system approaches Mon and slowly pushes thru Tue night into Wed before dissipating. Plenty of moisture will spread N in advance of the front with likely pops Mon/Mon night and chc Tue and Wed. The front should cross the coast and dissipate Wed. Highs Mon will be mainly in the lower 60s with mid/upr 60s Tue and Wed.

Late next week. High pressure will build into the area behind the front with cooler highs in the 50s Thursday.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Short Term /through Friday morning/ . As of 1250 PM Thu . Precip shield can be seen covering most of the TAF sites and conditions are expected to deteriorate from here. VFR conditions will switch to MVFR within the next few hours as the coastal low continues to strengthen this afternoon. Late afternoon/early evening is when we will begin to see ceilings drop as rain begins to change over to a wintry mix, bringing with it IFR conditions. Tonight into the overnight hours, precip will transition to all snow beginning NW and pushing SE, dropping visibilities down to 1 mile, or potentially less. Ceilings and visibilities will improve once the snow tapers off W to E Friday morning. Strong NNE winds will persist throughout the TAF period.

Long Term /Fri night Through Tuesday/ . As of 300 PM Thu . VFR conditions expected to prevail through the weekend as high pres builds across. Shra threat increases Mon and Tue ahead of approaching cold front with occasional sub VFR poss.

MARINE. Short Term /Tonight and Friday/ . As of 300 PM Thu . Dangerous boating expected through Fri as strong NNE winds develop today and cont tonight as low pres develops and deepens well to the SE. Cont Gale Warning for all but Pamlico River where we have SCA. Winds will increase to 30 to 40 kt with gusts to 45-50 kt over the warmer water tonight into Friday. These winds will lead to seas reaching to 9 to 14 ft tonight into Fri.

Long Term /Fri night through Tue/ . As of 300 PM Thu . Winds will slowly begin to decrease early Fri evening to sub Gale and especially Fri night to below 25 kt late as the low moves further offshore. Seas will remain dangerous early 8-14 ft subsiding to 5-9 ft early Sat. Winds become light Sat as the high builds close with seas subsiding to 4 to 6 ft late. Light winds cont Sunday with the high overhead . seas finally drop below SCA lvls Sun at 3 to 5 ft. The high moves off the coast Mon with front slowly approaching from the W. SSW winds will increase from 10 kt Mon to 15 to 20 kts Mon night and 20-25 kt Tue with seas 2-4 ft Mon building back to 4 to 7 ft Tue.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 300 PM Thu . NNE gale force winds are expected tonight into Friday, as an area of low pressure lifts east to northeastward well off the Carolina coast. These strong winds will lead to minor soundside water level rises for areas adjacent to the Southern Pamlico Sound, mainly Eastern Carteret including the Core Sound area, and areas along the lower Neuse River, as well as Ocracoke and Hatteras Island south of Buxton. Minor inundation 1-2 ft (agl) are expected with local amounts up to 3 ft possible Down-east Carteret, and a Coastal Flood Advisory conts for these areas. A High Surf Advisory was issued for the OBX from Cape Hatteras North this evening thru late Fri night for 8 ft+ waves in the surf zone.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for NCZ195-196-199-203. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for NCZ090-198. Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Friday for NCZ029-044-045- 079-080-091-193. Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday for NCZ196-203>205. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Friday for NCZ194-196-204-205. Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for NCZ046-047-081-092-094-194. High Surf Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Saturday for NCZ203-205. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Friday for AMZ136. Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Friday for AMZ137. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Friday for AMZ135. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 5 PM EST Friday for AMZ131-230-231. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Friday for AMZ150. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Friday for AMZ152-154-156-158.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . CB/ML SHORT TERM . CB/ML LONG TERM . RF/JME AVIATION . JME/ML MARINE . RF/JME TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . MHX


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 33 mi61 min N 20 G 26 42°F 53°F1022 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 43 mi43 min NNE 30 G 37 42°F 1021.1 hPa (-1.9)42°F

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC1 mi49 minN 20 G 266.00 miRain Fog/Mist and Breezy38°F35°F89%1024.4 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC19 mi1.8 hrsNNE 19 G 285.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy42°F37°F82%1023.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEWN

Wind History from EWN (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmS7S4S3S4SW3S3S4SW3SW4CalmW4NW3N6NE15
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2 days agoNE8NE5E4E5NE4NE4NE6NE4NE3N4N5CalmCalmN3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S3

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:21 AM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:04 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:41 AM EST     2.08 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:19 PM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:11 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:53 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:56 PM EST     1.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.1-00.30.71.31.722.11.91.51.10.60.200.10.40.81.31.61.71.61.30.80.4

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:19 AM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:04 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:47 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:35 AM EST     1.28 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:17 PM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:12 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:54 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:50 PM EST     1.05 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.1-0-00.20.50.81.11.31.31.20.90.60.30.1000.20.50.81110.80.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.