Sunrise 6:03 AM   Sunset 8:05 PM Moonrise 9:50 AM   Moonset 12:02 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

AMZ137 NEuse And Bay Rivers- 703 Am Edt Mon May 13 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night - .
Today - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt late. Waves light chop, increasing to a moderate chop late. Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves a moderate chop, increasing to choppy in the afternoon. Showers likely in the morning, then showers with a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon. Tue night - S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves choppy. A slight chance of tstms. Showers.Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Showers likely. A slight chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of tstms in the afternoon. Wed night - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Thu - N winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. Thu night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Fri - SE winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves flat, increasing to light chop in the afternoon.Fri night - S winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 703 Am Edt Mon May 13 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - High pressure centered over the mid-atlantic coastline will shift offshore tonight. Then, a low pressure system will bring unsettled weather across the area Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure builds in on Thursday before another low pressure system impacts us late in the week.

FXUS62 KMHX 131500 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1100 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains the dominant weather maker today. A low pressure system will bring unsettled weather across the area Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure builds in late Thursday before another low pressure system impacts us late in the week.

NEAR TERM /Through Today/
As of 11 AM Mon...No big changes with am update. Temps steadily warming through the 70s, with a general inc in high level clouds from the west. This will prevent temps from reaching as high as they would otherwise, and should plateau in the low 80s interior, and remain in the 70s coastal locales.

Prev disc
As of 715 AM Mon
Mid-level ridge continues to shift eastward towards the Carolinas this morning and will be directly overhead by early this afternoon. The next area of troughing is currently digging into the southern plains and is forecast to slide east towards the Carolinas by mid- week, playing a role in increasingly unsettled weather. At the surface, high pressure remains in control with a stalled frontal boundary draped well to our south along the Gulf Coast.

The forecast calls for one last day of pleasant weather, albeit with increasing clouds late in the afternoon as the aforementioned plains trough taps into Gulf moisture. The surface high will shift offshore allowing for a return of southerly flow for much of the area, although the lingering trough will keep winds more east to east- southeast for coastal locations, therefore moderating temperatures across the northern Outer Banks. Still, widespread 70s are expected with a few low 80s across the coastal plain.

SHORT TERM /Tonight/
As of 330 AM Mon...Upper trough will continue to shift east as a wave of low pressure migrates along a stalled frontal boundary draped along the Gulf Coast overnight. Broad southerly flow will develop over the Carolinas overnight and dew points will steadily climb into the 60s through Tuesday morning. This, combined with steadily increasing cloud cover, will contribute to considerably warmer overnight lows as temperatures struggle to fall below the low 60s. A few stray pre- dawn showers are possible across the coastal plain with increasing isentropic lift, but more robust rainfall will hold off until daytime hours Tuesday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 415 AM Monday...Unsettled weather will impact ENC on Tue/Wed as a deepening low pressure tracks across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. High pressure builds in Thursday night into Friday but another low pressure system will impact the area late in the week.

Tuesday through Wednesday night...Vertically stacked low pressure will track across the Ohio River Valley on Tuesday and then push across the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday before pushing off the coast Wednesday night. Precip chances increase through the day Tuesday and peak Tuesday night as upper level diffluence and southern stream moisture increases across the area with PWATs peaking around 1.75". Additional showers will push across the area Wednesday as the upper level trough and attendant sfc cold front pushes across the area. Could see a few elevated thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday night but clouds and precip will limit instability and any severe potential appears minimal.
However, Wednesday will have a better chance for stronger storms with better upper level support, colder temps aloft, and greater instability coupled with around 30-40 kt of bulk shear.
SPC has a marginal risk (1 of 5) of severe storms across the coastal plain on Wednesday. Most of the area will likely see a soaking rain with precip amounts around 1-1.5" through the period with coastal sections potentially approaching 2". Temps will continue to be seasonable with highs in the mid 70s on Tuesday and low to mid 80s on Wednesday.

Thursday through Sunday...Upper ridging builds in from the west Thursday with a vertically stacked low off the Mid-Atlantic coast slowly moving eastward. ECWMF continues to be the slowest solution keeping cyclonic flow across the area keeping isolated showers and thunderstorm chances through much of the day and will keep slight chance PoPs attm. Ridging crests over the area Thursday night but will slide offshore Friday with another frontal system quickly moving into the area late in the week but once again guidance differs with how the system evolves as it pushes across the Southeast and off the coast over the weekend. But despite the differences, most guidance brings another round of descent rainfall amounts across much of the area.

AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 12z Tuesday/...
As of 720 AM Mon...VFR conditions prevail across ENC early this morning as high pressure continues to expand over the mid- Atlantic coast while frontal boundary has all but washed out.
VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through today with increasing cirri through the day as low pressure migrates along a stalled frontal boundary along the Gulf Coast. Light winds this morning gradually veer southerly as the surface high migrates offshore but remaining under 10 kt through the day. As low nears the area overnight, cigs will gradually lower but should remain VFR up until 12z when heavier rainfall moves in from the southwest. Some isolated showers are possible over the coastal plain after 07-08z which could cause some brief periods of flight restrictions.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 430 AM Monday...A low pressure system will impact the area Tuesday through Wednesday with deteriorating conditions expected Tuesday with periods of sub- VFR continuing into Wednesday. Sub- VFR conditions possible Wednesday night with plenty of low level moisture in place. Pred VFR returns Thursday but could see isolated showers bringing brief sub-VFR conditions. Pred VFR continues Friday but another frontal system will approach the area bringing increasing clouds with sub-VFR possible Friday night.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/...
As of 350 AM Mon...Benign boating conditions will prevail through the short term period, although conditions will begin to deteriorate late Mon night into Tues morning as complex area of low pressure approaches from the west.

Regional observations this morning show seas around 2-4 feet with predominantly easterly flow of 5-10 kt. These conditions will persist through this afternoon with flow gradually veering southerly as high pressure centered over the mid-Atlantic shifts offshore. As low makes its approach towards the Carolinas, pressure gradient will tighten with winds reaching 15-20 kt by daybreak on Tuesday. Seas remain at around 2-4 feet through the period, then building to 5+ late early Tues morning primarily across outer portions of Onslow Bay.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 430 AM Monday...Southerly winds increase Tuesday ahead of the low pressure system and expect a period of Small Craft Advisory conditions to develop and continue into Wednesday. We may see a brief period of Gale Force winds across portions of the waters Tuesday evening. Seas will build Tuesday and peak around 7-10 ft Tuesday night, then will gradually subside Wednesday. A cold front will push across the waters Wednesday night with winds becoming Nly around 10-15 kt and seas around 3 to 5 ft through Thursday. High pressure build into the area Thursday night bringing light winds then slides offshore Friday with winds becoming Sly around 10-15 kt late in the day ahead of the next frontal system.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ136-137.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ156-158.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:22 AM EDT     2.18 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:09 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:49 PM EDT     1.81 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:07 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:16 AM EDT     1.34 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:07 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:43 PM EDT     1.11 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:05 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Spooner Creek, North Carolina, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Morehead City, NC,