Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ashley Heights, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 5:05PM Sunday December 8, 2019 3:34 PM EST (20:34 UTC) Moonrise 3:05PMMoonset 3:30AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashley Heights, NC
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location: 35.09, -79.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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FXUS62 KRAH 081941 AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 241 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

SYNOPSIS. A weak wave of low pressure and related coastal front will track northward across eastern NC tonight, while high pressure will otherwise continue to extend across the interior Carolinas and middle Atlantic. Cold air damming will also result, with a related wedge front that will retreat slowly northwestward into the Piedmont on Monday, then stall over the northwest Piedmont Monday night. Unseasonably moist air will remain in place until the passage of a cold front Tuesday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 1040 AM Sunday .

The previous forecast and rationale needs little adjustment this morning, with the primary exception being a more rapid increase in cloudiness, mostly altocumulus that has become visible on the sern horizon across Lake Raleigh at WFO RAH, across our sern counties per observational trends this morning.

PREV DISCUSSION. /ISSUED 426 AM EST Sun Dec 08 2019/

Strong ~1033 mb surface high extending south down the Eastern Seaboard this morning will move east, off the southern New England Coast through midday. The left behind NE to SW oriented surface ridge axis and associated cP airmass will secure dry and mostly sunny conditions through the early to mid afternoon. However, during the late afternoon/early evening, the inland retreat of a coastal front and related concentrated plume of low-level warm moist air advection from the SE US coast, into eastern NC, will result in south-north expansion of light right and drizzle across the NC Piedmont through the overnight hours, with more in the way of convective showers and heavier precip, across the coastal plain zones, owing to the development of some weak elevated instability. Precip amounts are expected to range from a trace across the Triad to 0.25-0.33" across coastal plain/eastern zones. Additionally, after the rain ends, widespread fog, potentially dense, will be apt to develop tonight and into Monday morning. Highs today will range from upper 40s/near 50 NW to lower/mid 50s SE. Lows in the upper 30s/near 40 NW to lower 50s SE.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/. As of 426 AM Sunday .

Models indicate that the coastal front and zone of strong moisture advection and associated showers will lift north of the area between 12z-15z. Despite the deep moisture in place(PWATS 1.25-1.33"), mechanisms for lift will be quite nebulous across central NC through the remainder of the afternoon and overnight. The exception will be across the far NW zones, where glancing shots of DPVA from upper perturbations ejecting from Mid MS Valley through the central Appalachians will support intermittent weak lift. Have retained slight chance PoPs across the NW Piedmont, elsewhere it should remain dry but cloudy with favorable conditions for fog again Monday night.

The real challenge on Monday will be the slow erosion of a shallow/weak in-situ wedge across the NW Piedmont, resulting in a very difficult/challenging temp forecast. Any light rain/drizzle across the NW Piedmont would help the wedge airmass to hold on and keep temps in the mid to upper 40s well into the afternoon/evening. Confidence in temps increase as you go east, into the well- established warm sector. Highs ranging from lower 50s NW to mid/upper 60s SE with minimal temperature variation of only a few degrees overnight.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 241 PM Sunday .

Busy weather ahead later in the week, starting with Tuesday's cold frontal passage and subsequent Canadian ridge across the area. Today's 12Z deterministic and ensemble guidance are in agreement that Tuesday should begin dry, with precip holding off around the Triad til 18Z and just about making it into the Triangle closer to 21-00Z. This is a bit of a slowdown from previous model forecasts a few days ago which has FROPA earlier in the day, but the slower progression of the front is supported by the NAEFS and ECENS. Rainfall with the front will range from nearly an inch in the far northwestern portion of the CWA to around a third of an inch in the Sandhills and points southeast. Obviously the big story will be the drop in temperatures which will see nearly 20 degrees slashed from Tuesday's highs to Wednesday's highs, followed by another 5-10 degrees from Wednesday to Thursday. Thursday afternoon's temps will struggle to get out of the upper 30s in the Triad and even some spots along the NC/VA border will struggle to reach 40.

Forecast uncertainty remains high with the late week storm. Of all the deterministic models, the GFS remains the fastest with the onset of precip whereas its ensemble system is slower and more in line with EC ENS and Canadian deterministic/ensemble solutions. With the strong arctic high in place over the Mid Atlantic on Thursday, the GFS's early onset is problematic as strong overrunning with ongoing CAD setup could lead to a brief period of mixed precip right at the onset before WAA nudges temperatures above the freezing mark. Thankfully the GFS (while still the fastest), has backed off in its timing a bit with precip holding off until just before daybreak Friday morning. With very dry surface dewpoints in place and evaporational cooling to consider, I'm hesitant to erode the cold air too quickly and I've included a slight chance of rain or freezing rain in the Triad right at the onset just before daybreak Friday. Mixed precip should be very short lived and quickly turn to rain later in the morning hours with rain eventually overspreading the entire area later in the day Friday afternoon. Nearly all guidance showing widespread rainfall through early Saturday morning and PoPs were only adjusted temporally based on today's 12Z guidance. The overall pattern should dry out a bit next weekend with temperatures once again hovering at or slightly below normal.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 130 PM Sunday .

Initially VFR conditions, under the influence of surface high pressure, will yield to MVFR to LIFR ones through early Mon, as warm and moist air encounters and rides atop the high. An area of rain/showers now along and offshore the sern NC coast will expand nwd through ern NC and affect FAY, RWI, and very near RDU, and accompany the aforementioned sub-VFR conditions tonight. Periods of drizzle or light rain are expected otherwise and elsewhere (ie. at INT/GSO late tonight-early Mon. Related cold air damming over cntl NC will also promote the development of low level wind shear conditions late tonight-Monday, mainly over the Piedmont.

Outlook: While some lifting and scattering to VFR will likely occur at FAY and RWI Mon afternoon, cold air damming and IFR-LIFR conditions will likely persist throughout the Piedmont, particularly at INT/GSO; and they may expand ewd/throughout cntl NC once again Mon night, then linger into early Tue. A cold front and trailing band of rain will then sweep sewd across the region Tue night, with following VFR conditions expected Wed through Thu. A coastal storm will result in another high probability of rain and sub-VFR conditions Fri-Fri night, including a short-lived period of wintry precipitation at INT/GSO at precipitation onset Fri morning.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SYNOPSIS . MWS NEAR TERM . MWS/CBL SHORT TERM . CBL LONG TERM . Leins AVIATION . MWS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 87 mi65 min ENE 2.9 G 8.9 57°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackall U. S. Army Airfield, NC7 mi39 minNNE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy53°F34°F51%1028.9 hPa
Pinehurst/Southern Pines, Moore County Airport, NC10 mi39 minNNE 510.00 miOvercast51°F34°F52%1028.6 hPa
Pope Air Force Base, NC20 mi39 minNE 410.00 miOvercast52°F36°F55%1027.8 hPa
Laurinburg Maxton Airport, NC21 mi43 minNE 710.00 miOvercast55°F36°F49%1027.3 hPa
Fort Bragg / Simmons Army Airfield, NC24 mi39 minN 610.00 miOvercast52°F36°F55%1027.8 hPa
Rockingham-Hamlet Airport, NC24 mi60 minNE 410.00 miFair53°F25°F34%1027.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHFF

Wind History from HFF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE8E4NE3E3E4E3NE4NE3NE4NE3E3NE4NE3NE4NE4NE5N4NE7E8NE7E7NE5NE5N5
1 day agoSW5SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3S4CalmN4N3--CalmCalm----E9
G14
E8E10E11--NE6
2 days agoNW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmSW8SW6SW5W5W5

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Conway
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Sun -- 03:28 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 06:03 AM EST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:08 PM EST     1.32 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:04 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:07 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:35 PM EST     0.59 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.110.80.60.40.40.40.60.91.11.31.31.31.210.90.70.60.60.70.911.1

Tide / Current Tables for Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Grahamville
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Sun -- 12:39 AM EST     0.97 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:27 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 07:07 AM EST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 01:06 PM EST     1.06 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:04 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:06 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:39 PM EST     0.46 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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110.90.80.60.50.30.30.30.50.70.911.110.90.80.70.60.50.50.50.70.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.