Saturday, April4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ashley Heights, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:41PM Saturday April 4, 2020 10:46 PM EDT (02:46 UTC) Moonrise 2:49PMMoonset 4:01AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashley Heights, NC
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location: 35.09, -79.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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FXUS62 KRAH 050115 AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 915 PM EDT Sat Apr 04 2020

SYNOPSIS. Surface high pressure will ridge southward across the middle Atlantic through tonight, then drift offshore on Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 915 PM Saturday .

Surface data indicated a weak backdoor cold front analyzed at 900 PM from the southern NC Outer Banks northwest to Raleigh . Roxboro and Danville. A 1018 mb surface high pressure was located over western MD/eastern WVA moving slowly south. Winds become NE at 5-10 mph behind the front. Temperatures were in the 40s/50s in the NE sections of NC and eastern VA behind the front. In the west ahead of the front, mid-evening temperatures were in the 60s.

Satellite data indicated low clouds confined to the coast, with some altocumulus in patchy nature over NW Piedmont. A few cirrus were flowing east into the western third of NC.

Overnight . expect the weak cold front to slowly drift south and west into the western Piedmont later tonight, but have little affect on the sensible weather. Winds will become NE behind the front at 4- 8 mph with slightly cooler temperatures. Much of the stratocumulus associated with the NE flow off the Atlantic will remain closer to the coast and Sounds. There will be a few cirrus and altocumulus in the west. Otherwise, expect mostly clear skies. Lows generally in the 40s expected, with a few upper 30s in the normally cooler locations.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/. As of 415 PM Saturday .

NW to wnw flow aloft, around a broad subtropical centered near the Yucatan, will persist across cntl NC this period. A mid level moist axis along and just upstream of the associated ridge axis, stretching this afternoon from ON to the lwr MS Valley, will drift across the srn middle Atlantic states late Sunday and early Sunday night.

At the surface, the backdoor cold front analyzed at 19Z from the srn NC Outer Banks nwwd across w-cntl VA and cntl WV, to a 1015 mb frontal low over wrn OH, will have stalled over w-cntl NC by 12Z Sun. That front will retreat newd across the srn middle Atlantic through Sunday night, ahead of the OH frontal low that will develop sewd across the lwr OH Valley and Virginias through 12Z Mon. A cold front trailing the low will meanwhile settle sewd across the srn Appalachians and TN Valley through the same time.

An area of very weak instability is forecast to develop with diurnal heating over wrn and w-cntl NC, as modest moistening characterized by surface dewpoints increasing mostly into the upr 40s, occurs with the newd retreat of the warm front. That weak destabilization will occur coincident with the arrival of the mid level moist axis; and this may support some isolated shower/sprinkle development from the cntl Appalachians ewd into the wrn NC Piedmont late Sun afternoon- evening. Some newd expansion of moistening and weak, (mostly elevated) instability may occur overnight, as a modest (~30-35 kt) wswly llj jet develops across n-cntl NC and srn VA. As such, a slight chance of a shower will be maintained across the nrn Piedmont overnight.

Temperatures Sunday will generally be in the 70s, with milder lows around 50F.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 254 PM Saturday .

In the mid and upper levels, a ridge will build over the TN Valley south across the GOM during the first half of the week, but will become suppressed during the second half of the week as an amplifying short wave drops SE across the Northern Plains, the Midwest, and eventually across the East Coast late in the week and early next weekend. The main model difference is whether a closed low over the Four Corners region gets picked up by the aforementioned north stream system as the GFS suggests, or whether it lags behind per the ECMWF. If it gets picked up per the GFS, that will mean a much stronger system that moves across the Carolinas late next week, both in sfc frontal strength, rain amounts, and convective threat. The ECWMF solution would be more progressive, and less QPF and convection with the bulk of upper energy remaining well to our north. Details will come into better light as the week progresses.

In the meantime, look for a chance for rain on Monday assoc with the passage of a backdoor front (on the east side of the aforementioned ridge), and yet another chance for rain on Tuesday as strong upper flow moves over the top of the aforementioned ridge, and assists with vigorous moisture transport of deep layer ascent across the Southeast.

As for temps . with the northern stream displaced well to our north and a vigorous southern stream reinforcing a warm airmass into our area most of the week, look for temps to be at or above normal most of the week, until the system late next week moves through, then it will cool down in the wake of that system.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 915 PM Saturday .

VFR conditions are expected tonight through Sunday.

Outlook: Generally VFR conditions will continue through early to mid next week, albeit with a slight, near climatological probability of a shower.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.



SYNOPSIS . MWS NEAR TERM . Badgett SHORT TERM . MWS LONG TERM . np AVIATION . Badgett/MWS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 87 mi76 min SE 1 G 1.9 58°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackall U. S. Army Airfield, NC7 mi50 minN 010.00 miFair54°F39°F59%1017.1 hPa
Pinehurst/Southern Pines, Moore County Airport, NC10 mi50 minESE 310.00 miFair60°F37°F42%1016.4 hPa
Pope Air Force Base, NC20 mi50 minENE 410.00 miFair52°F42°F71%1016.2 hPa
Laurinburg Maxton Airport, NC21 mi54 minS 410.00 miFair56°F42°F60%1016 hPa
Fort Bragg / Simmons Army Airfield, NC24 mi50 minN 010.00 miFair54°F42°F65%1016.2 hPa
Rockingham-Hamlet Airport, NC24 mi51 minESE 41.50 miSky Obscured with Haze62°F23°F23%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHFF

Wind History from HFF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmNW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmE6NE6--N5NE7CalmNE9N7NE5E6CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmNW3N4CalmNW3NW3NW5CalmCalmN8N13
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2 days agoCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3NW4NW4NW4N6N6NE13--NW8--N12NW11
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--N7----NW4

Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Conway
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Sat -- 12:11 AM EDT     1.21 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:36 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:40 PM EDT     1.43 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:17 PM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.210.80.50.30.20.10.30.611.21.41.41.31.10.80.50.30.10.20.40.71

Tide / Current Tables for Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Grahamville
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Sat -- 01:10 AM EDT     0.97 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:40 AM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:38 PM EDT     1.14 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:21 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.910.90.80.60.40.30.10.10.20.50.811.11.110.90.60.40.20.10.10.30.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.