Wednesday, September23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ashley Heights, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 7:12PM Wednesday September 23, 2020 2:24 PM EDT (18:24 UTC) Moonrise 1:05PMMoonset 11:01PM Illumination 39% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashley Heights, NC
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location: 35.09, -79.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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FXUS62 KRAH 231751 RRA AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 150 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will extend from the Tennessee Valley southeast across the Carolinas through Thursday. The high will shift offshore late Thursday and Friday. This will allow low pressure to approach from the southwest.

NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/. As of 150 PM Wednesday .

Central NC will remain under weak ridging through tonight, as the center of the surface high slides south and eventually off the SE US coast. Meanwhile aloft, a positively tilted trough will move east through the Lower and Middle portions of the MS Valley, reaching the Tn and Ohio Valley by Thursday morning.

The opaque veil of high clouds we had over central NC earlier this morning has thinned out considerably. However, the next batch of high and mid-level moisture will overspread the area overnight, resulting in mostly cloudy skies and milder temperatures overnight. Lows in the 55-60 degree range.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/. As of 225 AM Wednesday .

Models are now in better agreement in bringing low pressure (the remnants of TC Beta) NE toward the southern Appalachians late Thursday and Thursday night. Expect plenty of high and mid level cloudiness Thursday to become a lower overcast later Thursday night. A chance of showers will arrive in the west during the afternoon with mostly cloudy skies in the east. Rain is then likely to develop/overspread the Piedmont from the west on Thursday night. We will raise POP to likely for much of the Piedmont between 06z and 12z/Thursday night and Friday morning. Highs Thursday should be held down in the west (upper 60s to lower 70s). Highs in the east should reach the mid 70s, with some upper 70s in the SE. Lows Thursday night generally 60-65.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 315 AM Wednesday .

A warm front will lift north into central NC on Friday, coincident with the approach of the deamplifying mid level associated with the remnant of TC Beta. Pretty good model agreement early Friday with an area of showers moving into the western Piedmont, where the warm front should stall as wedge boundary in response to the rain. From there its a little less certain, but with a weakening wave the precip may decrease in intensity, if not coverage, as it moves east during the day, However, there will be northern stream shortwave on its heels that could trigger some additional showers or an isolated thunderstorm during the afternoon as it interacts with some weak instability on the warm side of the boundary. Despite decent mid- level flow downstream of the merging troughs, instability should be too limited for a severe threat with highs ranging from mid 60s NW to upper 70s SE.

Guidance diverges a bit on Saturday, with the ECMWF showing a deeper shortwave ion Friday that clears out deeper moisture more effectively and is therefore drier on Saturday. The GFS has a less amplified trailing wave on Friday which allows the associated frontal zone and moisture to linger over NC, with showers and isolated storm chances continuing essentially each day before a deeper trough and stronger cold front swing through the area mid week.

Given the uncertainty, will keep POPs in the chance range through the weekend, with highs climbing into the upper 70s and lower 80s by Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 150 PM Wednesday .

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period, with gradual thickening and lowering of high and then mid-level clouds overnight and into the day on Thursday. Winds will remain light and variable through tonight.

Outlook: Beyond 18z/Thursday . Models have trended a little faster with the onset of rain showers into the area, with the potential for KINT and KGSO to see some rain showers as early as Thursday afternoon/ evening. However, the higher probabilities for widespread rain and sub-VFR will arrive from the SW Thursday night through Friday night. Some improvement is expected with MVFR to VFR conditions over the weekend, in between low pressure systems.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.



SYNOPSIS . Badgett NEAR TERM . CBL SHORT TERM . Badgett LONG TERM . Smith AVIATION . Badgett/MWS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 87 mi55 min Calm G 5.1 72°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackall U. S. Army Airfield, NC7 mi29 minSW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F52°F48%1019.7 hPa
Pinehurst/Southern Pines, Moore County Airport, NC10 mi29 minN 010.00 miFair75°F52°F45%1018.7 hPa
Pope Air Force Base, NC20 mi29 minSSW 410.00 miFair76°F51°F42%1018.2 hPa
Laurinburg Maxton Airport, NC21 mi33 minSSE 410.00 miFair76°F55°F50%1018.4 hPa
Fort Bragg / Simmons Army Airfield, NC24 mi29 minSSW 610.00 miFair76°F52°F43%1017.8 hPa
Rockingham-Hamlet Airport, NC24 mi30 minW 310.00 miFair73°F52°F49%1018.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHFF

Wind History from HFF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN4N5NW6NW4W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmSW6
1 day agoE12E9E11
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E9NE7NE5NE3NE3N4N3N3N4N4N3N4N3----N3E4NE6NE5N5NE5
2 days agoE11
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Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Conway
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Wed -- 02:38 AM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:33 AM EDT     1.35 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:48 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:20 PM EDT     1.58 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:56 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.70.50.50.60.81.11.21.31.31.210.80.60.40.40.50.711.31.51.61.61.4

Tide / Current Tables for Grahamville, Waccamaw River, South Carolina
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Grahamville
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:42 AM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:31 AM EDT     1.08 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:52 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:56 PM EDT     First Quarter
Wed -- 10:18 PM EDT     1.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.80.60.40.40.50.70.811.11.110.80.60.50.30.30.40.60.811.21.31.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.