Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Franklin, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 630 AM EDT Monday: Increased sky cover across the SW NC mountains, NE GA, and western Upstate early this morning to account for low cloudiness observed and blend this into morning aviation grids. Otherwise no changes with the early morning update.

High pressure across the Mid-Atlantic states will dominate the area through the near-term as upper ridging over the MS Valley begins working slowly eastward. The surface high will slip offshore during the day today, and by the end of the period, the upper ridge will be stretched over the Appalachians and toward New England as a front begins to work toward the OH Valley. Subsidence under the ridge will keep any pops at bay, while some moisture return around the western periphery of the surface high will bring some cloudiness to the area toward the end of the period, otherwise mainly just some passing cirrus off and on. Will see slightly warmer afternoon highs today with the increasing thicknesses and southeasterly surface flow today, just a smidge above seasonal normals, and overnight lows tonight will tick up a couple of degrees warmer as well with additional moisture moving into the area.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 225 AM Monday: An upper ridge over the area weakens somewhat Tuesday as a short wave crosses the Great Lakes region. The ridge strengthens again Wednesday as the northern wave moves east and a southern stream wave moves into the mid MS valley. At the surface, high pressure slides off the Carolina coast Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Enough moisture returns to the mountains in the weak southerly flow, for isolated to low end scattered diurnal convection. The front then stalls to our north on Wednesday as a surface low moves into the Midwest. Moisture and instability increase, mainly along and north of the I-85 corridor as the southerly flow continues ahead of the stalled front. Mainly scattered, with better coverage possible along the TN border, diurnal convection develops once again. Right now, instability and shear look relatively weak limiting the severe and heavy rain potential. Highs around 5 degrees above normal Tuesday rise to around 10 degrees above normal Wednesday. Lows follow a similar trend but a little more above normal.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 245 AM Monday: The upper ridge moves east Thursday as the Midwest short wave moves east. A stronger northern stream short wave dives into the OH Valley Friday and across the area Friday night.
Moisture and instability increase again Thursday in the southerly flow ahead of a cold front associated with the second short wave.
Expect scattered mainly diurnal convection along and north of the I- 85 corridor once again. Numerous to good chance of convection develops Friday as the cold front crosses the area. Instability and shear could increase enough for a low end severe chance, but that's uncertain at this time. Temps remain around 10 degrees above normal.

Dry high pressure and an upper ridge build in behind the front for Saturday and Sunday. Temps will be near normal both days.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR thru the period, though increasing moisture late in the period will bring the possibility of restrictions to NE GA/western upstate SC just west of KAND, with the possibility of trending into MVFR cigs just beyond the end of the period. Otherwise just passing high clouds for the most part, with occasional mid-level cloudiness. Lgt/vrb winds at TAF time will pick up 5-10kt later this morning out of the SE as high pressure shifts E of the area. After 00z, speeds will diminish again to lgt/vrb but begin trending toward SW, picking up again for the out-periods at KCLT.

Outlook: Mostly VFR thru Wed, although early morning stratus may be able to develop Tue and Wed. Mainly aftn/evening SHRA/TSRA possible Tue and Wed over the NC mountains. More unsettled weather possible in the second half of the week as frontal system approaches the region.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.