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FXUS62 KGSP 110302 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1002 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will move off the Carolina coast tonight as colder air filters in from the northwest. Low level moisture pushing up against the North Carolina and Tennessee mountains tonight will result in snowfall mainly above 3000 feet along with breezy conditions.
Dry high pressure then settles over the region on Monday and persists through the work week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 955 PM: The very gusty winds in the wake of the cold front are along and east of the I-77 corridor and should clear the CWA before midnight. Winds will be much lighter outside of the mountains after midnight. Very gusty winds will continue across the mountains overnight however. The band of widespread showers is also slowly moving east and should clear the CWA around or shortly after midnight, leaving only the NW flow snow showers along and near the TN border. Still looks like the higher elevations in the current advisory area will see as much as 2 to 4 inches. Lower amounts are expected in the Smokies and possibly the Balsams. Can't rule out some flurries over the lower elevations of the northern foothills or the NW Piedmont, but chances are diminishing. Will keep the WSW and SPS in place for now.

Overnight, post-frontal nw/ly upslope flow ensues across the NC mtns and expect snow showers to begin. The guidance has been wishy-washy with QPF amts and have adj/d WPC guidance down a little based on latest SREF means. This still gives advisory level snow across the nrn NC mtns, but higher elevations south may not see enuf coverage to include in a new advisory. So, have issued an SPS for these areas and surrounded the advisory talking about snow and possible black ice due to quick temperature drops expected. Wind gusts are still favored to reach advisory criteria across the nrn NC mtns and will include in the winter weather advisory similar to previous shift.
There could be isol slick spots adjacent to the mtns also as the deeply cold airmass interacts with wet roads before daybreak. Mins drop into u20s across the mtn valleys tonight and arnd freezing east. Temperatures across the mtn valleys shud rise abv freezing by 10 am. Highs will be slow to recover even with good sunshine with l50s outside the mtns and l40s across the mtn valleys. Lower speeds but continued gusty NW winds across the mountains through the day.
Low end gusts may redevelop outside of the mountains as well.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 145 pm EST Sunday: An already-low amplitude long wave trough will steadily flatten over our area through the short term.
Sprawling surface high pressure associated with confluent flow aloft covering much of the eastern half of the country will otherwise dominate our weather through the period. Below normal temperatures and dry conditions are therefore expected from Mon night through Tue...before conditions moderate to slightly-above-normal conditions for Wed.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 155 pm Sunday: A rather high-amplitude upper air pattern will be in place at the start of the extended...with a trough centered just off the East Coast, a ridge across the Canadian Rockies, and a cut-off low undercutting the ridge across the Four Corners region. A cold front associated with a short wave trough digging across New England will reinforce sprawling surface high pressure and dry/relatively cool air early in the period. Temperatures are in fact forecast to be below normal Wed night through Friday night.

Forecast uncertainty escalates for next weekend, as global models aren't quite sure what to do with the Four Corners upper low. They do agree that this feature will kick out over Texas by the end of week, as a kicker short wave trough rides through the long wave ridge across the northern Rockies. However, how things evolve from there is where the controversy arises. The GFS phases the kicker wave into the upper low over the Southeast...producing a rather blockbuster coastal cyclone next weekend. The ECMWF and Canadian maintain more of a split flow, with the kicker wave traversing the northern Conus, and the upper low wobbling into the Gulf of Mexico.
The GFS solution would bring another round of precip to the forecast area, while the latter two solutions would keep any precip suppressed to our south. If anything, there may be a slight trend in the global guidance toward the GFS scenario (which has been quite consistent from run-to-run). As such, token chance PoPs appear warranted Saturday through Sunday. Temperatures are forecast to near-climo through the latter half of the period.

AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: Cold front is working it's way through the area at this time with wind shift at all but KCLT, where it should turn by 02Z. Vsby improving quickly behind the front despite lingering light SHRA. Cigs should scatter out/lift early at the SC sites, later at KHKY and KCLT, as late as 08Z. Cigs at KAVL actually drop to MVFR this evening as the NW flow pushes lower clouds up the valley. Gusty NW winds will continue into the evening, becoming gusty NW behind the front at KCLT. Winds then taper off overnight for all but KAVL where speeds do diminish somewhat but gusts continue. MVFR scatters out at KAVL after daybreak with VFR elsewhere. Gusty NW wind continues through the day at KAVL. Winds do tick back up in speed with mixing by mid morning, low end gusts will be possible elsewhere.

Outlook: Dry high pressure will persist through the week.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Monday for NCZ033-049- 050.
SC...None.

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