Sunrise 6:43 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 10:22 PM   Moonset 7:07 AM

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FXUS62 KGSP 260753 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 353 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

SYNOPSIS
A stationary front will move north as a warm front today and wash out across our area bringing increased clouds and a few showers.
After that, we can expect a warming trend through the weekend and into next week as high pressure takes over. A weak cold front is expected to approach from the northwest on Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Cirrus clouds continue to move in from the northwest around a stg upper ridge, while the ern zones are beginning to see mlvl cloud development due to persistent ne/ly Atl moist flux. The increasing cloud cover and fairly high sfc tdd/s will offset much, if any, dense fog thru the morning.

Upper ridging continues to build east across the area today, which will make for a very stable layer aloft atop a moist sfc wedge. The models continue to depict a weakening warm front as it pushes north underneath the ridge. This neg mlvl forcing will limit deep shower development and expect only periods of light rain across the NC mtns due mainly to mech lift during the day and into the overnight. The last few runs of the NAM have come down on precip amts, which now align better with the other op models indicating arnd a quarter inch mainly across the BR escarpment areas thru the period. A parent sfc high will be supported across New Eng by a convg zone in the LRQ zone of a 100+ kt jet core and this will help maintain strong sfc ridging across the fcst area today and overnight. Good llvl moist flux off the Atl will be able to create low clouds in this setup and expect most areas to be BKN/OVC, thus limiting the heating potential today and cooling overnight. Highs today shud range from 10 degrees below normal across the ne/rn zones to near normal over the far srn zones. Mins will be held a cat or so abv normal with a limited to nil dense fog threat thru the morning hrs.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 3:10 AM EDT Friday: The short-term fcst picks up at 12z on Saturday with broad upper ridging building over the Eastern CONUS as broad upper trofing digs southward over the extreme SW CONUS.
Over the next couple of days, the upper ridge will remain nearly stationary as the upper trof closes off an h5 low and lifts it NE towards the Great Lakes. At the sfc, very broad high pressure will be centered along the Atlantic Coast as the period begins. This will result in a weak wedging pattern lingering well into Saturday as the high remains centered to our NE. At the same time, a robust low will lift a moist warm front over our area early Saturday and could produce some additional light showers. Once the front lifts north of our area, low-level flow will become more SLY and erode what's left of the wedge pattern by late Saturday. The rest of the period should be dry and warm as the sfc high slides southward on Sunday and parks itself just off the SE Coast. Temperatures start out near climatology on Saturday and warm to a few degrees above climo by Sunday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 2:55 AM EDT Friday: The extended fcst picks up at 12z on Monday with steep upper ridging still centered over the Eastern CONUS. Early in the period, a closed upper low will climb up the ridge and over the Great Lakes. As we go into Tuesday, a series of northern-stream upper shortwaves will translate eastward towards the Great Lakes region and help flatten the upper ridge across our area. For the remainder of the period, the upper ridge will gradually amplify again over the Southeast as the northern stream remains active to our north. At the sfc, high pressure will be centered just off the Southeast Coast as the period begins. At the same time, a fairly weak cold front will be approaching our fcst area from the west. Most of the long-range guidance has this front moving thru our CWA on Tuesday, with what's left of the boundary moving offshore by early Wednesday. We'll likely get a round of sct to numerous showers and thunderstorms Tues afternoon/evening, with better coverage over our western zones. In the front's wake, we'll remain under warm, SLY low-level flow with the sfc high remaining nearly stationary just offshore. This will be similar to a summer-time pattern with chances for diurnal convection. Towards the end of the period Thurs into Fri, a more robust low is progged to eject out of the Plains and bring a stronger cold front to our region as the period ends.

AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: A moistening sfc wedge will make for lowering clouds overnight into MVFR/IFR arnd daybreak across all TAF sites.
Expect low clouds to persist into the mid-afternoon before lifting to VFR. KAVL will likely keep MVFR CIGs into the late period and will also have the best chance for MVFR VSBY arnd daybreak. With uncertainty in warm front precip coverage and the degree of sfc moistening, have kept KAVL VFR with 6SM BR for now, then drop to MVFR VSBY late period. Winds remain aligned ne/ly outside the mtns with speeds 8-10 kts maintained. Winds at KAVL remain weak overnight then align se/ly during the daytime period.

Outlook: Periods of low clouds are expected to linger into Saturday, with drying expected Sunday/Monday. A frontal system could bring a round of showers and storms to the area Tuesday.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

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