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FXUS62 KGSP 040544 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1244 AM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
Drier air will arrive as a cold frontal passes across the area late tonight. Reinforcing cold fronts will then cross the region late Monday and then again Tuesday night, with a brief increase in moisture along the spine of the southern Appalachians early Wednesday. Dry high pressure will then allow temperatures to return to near normal by Thursday and rise to 5 to 10 degrees above normal through next Saturday. The next system that may bring significant precipitation arrives next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
As of 1237 am...Several streaks of thicker high clouds moving overhead with a strong jet streak. No significant changes are in order at this time.

A strong vort max will cross the Southern Appalachians on Monday.
This will provide a brief shot of moisture along the TN/NC border with a few showers possible, aided by upslope flow. Temps should be mainly in the 40s across the higher elevations, so only the highest peaks may see snow with this activity. Even then, QPF is very light and spotty, so little to no accums expected. Elsewhere, it should be mostly sunny, but breezy. Highs will be about 5-8 deg above normal.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 200 pm EST Sunday: Channeled short wave trough will be lifting off the Mid-Atlantic/North Carolina coast at the start of the period, with any northwest flow/upslope showers tapering off quickly through the evening as moisture depletes on the western slopes of the Appalachians. The remainder of Mon night and Tuesday will see dry/mostly clear conditions and generally seasonal temperatures. By the end of Tue and into Tue night, the next potent short wave trough is forecast to dig toward the southern Appalachians and vicinity.
With little opportunity to establish return flow in the wake of the previous disturbance, moisture will be limited. However, northwest low level flow will again become enhanced Tue night into Wed as the speed max digs across the southeast coastal states. Moisture is forecast to deepen within a cold advection regime across the TN Valley through the western slopes of the TN/NC mountains by daybreak Wed, such that temperatures at the top of the moist layer are expected to be -12C or cooler.

These ingredients...including some synoptic support provided by the far south location of the upper jet, should get the northwest flow shower machine going. Temperatures are expected to be warm enough in the valleys for any shower activity to begin as rain, but snow should begin to mix in across the valleys as snow levels steadily lower throughout the overnight into Wednesday. However, considering the anticipated relatively brief duration of the event (~12 hours), any accumulating snow showers are expected to be confined to the higher elevations above 4000' or so. It's still too early to begin nailing down snowfall totals, but a high elevation Winter Weather Advisory-level event is within the realm of possibilities.
Temperatures are expected to cool to below-normal levels within the cold advection regime Wed.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 220 pm EST Sunday: Any northwest flow snow/rain showers should be wrapped up at the start of the extended, with a brief period of cooler-than-normal and dry conditions expected through Thu night.
However, conditions are expected to quickly moderate late int the week. as an upper trough is displaced by building heights and developing ridging across the East...downstream of large scale western Conus height falls. Global models remain somewhat at odds in how these height falls evolve into the next significant weather system impacting the East Coast, with all three of the major guidance sources being at odds regarding the latitude, intensity, timing of speed maxima. The 12Z model runs remain in their 00Z camps...with the GFS/Canadian suggesting a quick shot of frontal band precip, and the ECMWF more of a prolonged/significant precip event. Regardless of which camp proves closer to the truth, precip chances are such that 40-60% PoPs are warranted Sat night into Sunday. Temperatures are forecast to be at or a little above normal through the period.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR at all terminals through the period. Extensive high clouds will stream overhead thru daybreak. Wind will be fairly light, but variable between WSW and WNW in the wake of a weak cold front. After sunrise, wind could go light and variable for a period this morning, but should eventually come up from the SW at midday. Most terminals will have occasional wind gusts from the SW in the afternoon as deeper mixing develops. Another boundary crosses the region in the evening, bringing the wind direction around to NW.

Outlook: Dry conditions and VFR are expected thru most of the week, as a series of moisture-starved waves cross the area. May see breezy SWLY winds Tuesday and NWLY winds Wednesday.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

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