Sunrise 6:14 AM   Sunset 8:24 PM Moonrise 3:53 PM   Moonset 3:01 AM

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FXUS62 KGSP 191824 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 224 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
Warming high pressure will build atop the region through the first half of the week. Along and ahead of a stalling cold front, showers and storms return on Thursday with chances continuing all weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 240 PM Sunday: The forecast continues to work out more or less as planned this afternoon. A band of light precip, possibly due to lingering deformation to the north of the sfc low seen over east central GA, will continue to drift south over the Lakelands thru late afternoon. Behind this band of light precip, the atmosphere is more or less capped by a subsidence inversion, which should keep the western Piedmont and northern Upstate shower-free. Meanwhile, convergence across the mtns between northeasterly flow over the Piedmont and more northerly flow over the west side of the mtns continues to support scattered showers. This should continue thru peak heating, with enough buoyancy to support an isolated thunderstorm. We've lost the deep moisture, so the threat for heavy rain looks minimal. Temps/dewpoints were close to fcst.

Over the next 24 hours, the remnant of the old upper system should drift off the Southeast Coast and a positively-tilted mid/upper ridge will slide in from the west. For the most part, this will keep our weather fairly quiet tonight and Monday, however there won't be much of an air mass change and we retain relative high moisture in the boundary layer. That could allow for some areas of low stratus and fog later tonight, but nothing that appears to be dense at this time. On Monday, the remnant low level moisture may pool over the mtns just enough to allow the weak cap to be overcome in the afternoon, resulting in some isolated shower activity. Temps should be close to normal.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 1205 PM EDT Sunday: The warming trend will continue through the forecast period as lower elevation max temperatures climb into the middle 80s by Wednesday. Building upper ridge atop the SE CONUS will keep the atmosphere suppressed, save for diurnal isolated ridgetop deep conection in the NC mtns Tuesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 100 PM EDT Sunday: With developing lee trough and some downslope warming, Thursday has the potential to be the hottest day of the week with piedmont upper 80s possible, as long as convective and/or debris clouds limit insolation too early in the day. It looks like an active frontal zone is progged to approach and stall in or near the cwfa on Thursday as it becomes parallel to the upper flow.
This baroclinic zone should be able to aid in showers and tstms becoming numerous, especially across the mountains Thursday afternoon. Within the wavy quasi zonal flow atop the region Friday and into next weekend, daily, diurnally enhanced tstms are probable each day with temperatures averaging above the late May climo.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: We continue to deal with the remnants of an MVFR-level stratocu deck across the region east of the mtns this afternoon. Now that it was scattering out, enough heating should develop to more or less fill any holes with new convective clouds, so most likely the terminals will be in-and-out of the same MVFR-level bkn ceiling until we start to lose the daytime heating after 22Z or so. Meanwhile, over the mtns, low level convergence will continue to support scattered shower development, with an isolated thunderstorm possible. This will necessitate the inclusion of a TEMPO at KAVL for some showers thru late afternoon. By sunset, any wind gusts should go away and we should start to lose the lowest cloud layer, and we should be left only with some lingering scattered clouds. A light NE wind should remain overnight with high pressure to our north. Some of the guidance redevelops another low cloud deck around sunrise across the Piedmont, but this is low confidence at this time and was not included as a ceiling with this package. Monday looks nice a quiet.

Outlook: Stronger high pressure settles over the region Monday and persists through midweek, but isolated mountaintop convection still appears possible both Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Precip and restrictions possible with next front arriving circa Friday.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

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