Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bridgeton, NC

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 7 AM Mon...Today, high pressure will become centered of the VA Tidewater with abundant sunshine expected across ENC.
Light flow will allow for a sea breeze to form early this afternoon and advance rapidly inland late in the day. High temps will reach the mid to upper 70s for most, except for the OBX where onshore flow will keep temps mostly in the upper 60s to low 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/
As of 7 AM Mon...High pressure will gradually shift offshore tonight, with another quiet and clear night expected. Great radiational cooling conditions will develop, and allow for readings to drop into the upper 40s to low 50s inland overnight, while temps remain in the upper 50s to around 60 along the coast.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 315 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGES: -Warm and humid Wednesday through the end of the week

-Next potential cold front impacts the area this weekend bringing unsettled weather to ENC

Tuesday through Thursday...Amplified upper level pattern will be in place into the end of the week with general troughing across the western CONUS and ridging over the Southeast and Mid- Atlantic through Thursday. A weak upper trough will pass well to the north of the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. Within the troughing to the west, a northern stream positively tilted trough will dive SE'wards across the Pacific NW and reach the the northern Plains by Thursday and this trough will eventually be our next potential weather maker for ENC this weekend. At the surface, ridging will be centered off the Southeast Coast and remain centered off the coast into the end of the week. As a result, a rather benign period of weather is expected with SW'rly flow developing on Tuesday allowing for a WAA regime to set up across Carolinas. Highs on Tue get into the 80s inland and mid to upper 70s along the OBX and coast.

As we get into Wed, a weak shortwave will pass by to the north with associated surface cold front stalling in Virginia. The stalled front to the north will bring a low end chance for some showers and storms mainly north of Hwy 264 on Wed afternoon and evening, though little in the way of QPF is expected even if it did rain across this area given lack of forcing. This stalled front will then lift north as a warm front on Thursday as a developing low in the Southern Plains pushes NE'wards towards the Midwest keeping things dry and warm. With persistent SW'rly WAA regime and increasing low level thicknesses, expect highs to get into the mid 80s inland and upper 70s along the OBX while lows get down into the low to mid 60s each night.

Friday through the weekend...Upper ridging finally pushes offshore by the end of the week with the aforementioned upper trough in the northern Plains pushing E'wards as well this weekend while deepening. There are some minor differences in strength and exact track of this trough as it moves across the Eastern Seaboard with the GFS/ECMWF being the most progressive and the Canadian guidance being the slowest but general trend is for this trough to approach the area by Fri and push offshore by early next week at the latest. At the surface, deepening low pressure in the Midwest continues to track north and east towards Canada while its associated cold front quickly sweeps E'wards across the Ohio River Valley and eventually off the East Coast this weekend. There remain some minor differences in frontal timing but most guidance pushes the front off the coast on Sat. The one challenge for this weekend will be if we see any thunderstorm activity associated with this frontal passage and a prefrontal trough out ahead of the main front. GFS is the wettest guidance overall bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms both Fri afternoon into Sat while the ECMWF and Canadian guidance holds precip off until the frontal passage on Sat. Either way most guidance does suggest we see thunderstorms during this time period with ensemble guidance showing at least a 50-70% chance of MLCAPE values above 500 J/kg both Fri afternoon and on Sat across ENC. With increasing wind shear expected as the upper trough approaches there is at least a low end concern for stronger storms either Fri or Sat. CIPS guidance as well as some ML/AI guidance does continue to hint at a non zero threat for severe weather Fri or Sat. Will have to continue to monitor the forecast trends to see if the threat increases or decreases with the approach of the aforementioned front. Otherwise above avg temps continue ahead of the front on Fri before temps trend closer to avg over the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday Morning/...
As of 7 AM Mon...VFR conditions are present this morning and are expected to continue through tonight with cool and dry high pressure over the region. Aside from some areas of high clouds it will be clear with light winds less than 10 kts.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 330 AM Monday...High pressure ridging will push offshore and remain centered off the Southeast Coast through Thursday bringing primarily VFR conditions across all of ENC into the end of the week. There is a low end chance at seeing some sub-VFR conditions on Friday with the approach of a cold front.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 7 AM Mon...Excellent boating conditions will develop through tonight with light winds and mostly clear skies thanks to high pressure over the region. Winds this morning will be NE at 5-15 kts, and then will veer slightly this afternoon to E/ENE as a sea breeze develops, and continue at 10-15 kts. Winds continue to veer tonight, and will become generally SE at 5-10 kts. Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft through the period.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 330 AM Monday...No significant changes to the forecast as high pressure will remain in control for the most part through the period. This will bring a general lull in impactful marine conditions into the end of the week. SE'rly winds will persist at 5-10 kts Tue morning as high pressure builds overhead and pushes offshore with winds gradually veering to a S-SW'rly direction by Tue afternoon and increasing closer to 10-15 kts.
Seas along our coastal waters will remain around 2-4 ft.
Overnight and into Wed, a cold front will approach the area and stall to the north which will allow for SW'rly winds to increase closer to 10-20 kts while seas remain around 2-4 ft. Front should stall to the north of the Carolinas limiting any shower or thunderstorm chances. As we get into Thurs, front lifts north as a warm front allowing the gradient to relax and for SW'rly winds to ease down to 10-15 kts and 2-4 ft seas. We do finally see our streak of benign boating conditions come to an end as a stronger cold front approaches from the west on Fri increasing winds closer to 15-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts and 3-5 ft seas resulting in the potential for SCA conditions at the end of the workweek.

FIRE WEATHER
As of 7 AM Mon...
*Increased Fire Danger Possible This Afternoon Due to low RHs*

A dry airmass will hold on today, while temps climb into the 70s this afternoon. This will lead to RH values dropping to 20%-25% this afternoon. Additionally, extremely dry recent conditions have kept fuels dry despite the recent green up. The main limiting factor today will be winds, which will generally be below 15 mph, but will be changing direction abruptly this afternoon due to an inland advancing seabreeze.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.