Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bridgeton, NC

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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 122009 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 309 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS. An area of low pressure will form and move just inland of the coast late Friday, bringing a cold front through the area on Saturday. High pressure will build in briefly Sunday and Monday, followed by another cold front on Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. As of 3 PM Thursday . Some stratocumulus clouds continue to hug the Outer Banks at mid-afternoon, otherwise skies are clear across the CWA. As deeper moisture is pulled north overnight ahead of a developing southern stream system, clouds will increase after midnight. Despite the moisture increase, precipitation should be limited to a small chance of light showers along the Outer Banks/Sound region with very light QPF totals. With the increased cloud cover, temperatures will show a non-diurnal curve with steady or perhaps slowly rising temperatures overnight from early lows mainly in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/. As of 3 PM Thursday . Precipitable water surges toward 1.5 inches during the day on Friday as surface low approaches from the southwest over the inland Carolinas. Rain will be widespread and will continue with high likely to categorical PoPs with QPF totals on the order of one-half to three-quarters of an inch during the day tomorrow, with the heaviest amounts near the coast and especially the Outer Banks. Ribbon of higher CAPE values remains well offshore and will keep thunder out of forecast during the day until somewhat better instability arrives later Friday evening. High temperatures Friday will be considerably warmer than today, especially near the coast. Highs will range from the lower 50s well inland to the lower 60s coast.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 130 PM Thu . Periods of unsettled weather expected through the long term period, with roller coaster temps as a progressive/amplified active weather pattern is expected to continue.

Friday Night through Saturday . Deep srly flow will be ongoing Friday night as low pressure riding up the coast approaches and crosses the area. Rain chances peaking Fri evening when best UVV/Fgen/PWATS will converge. Maintained the categorical pops this period, as good model to model consistency as well as spaghetti ensembles converging on this solution. Widespread moderate to heavy rain will be possible Fri evening. Still some uncertainty on exact track of the low, but guidance appears to be converging on solution of low center tracking over the inner coastal plain/west of the US Hwy 17 corridor, bringing several hundred J/KG of sfc based CAPE into the area with plentiful shear overnight Friday. Best chance of a stronger storm would be along the coast where best instability will reside. Upr trough will still be west of the region though deepest moisture will be offshore Sat morning. Could be quite a bit of showers around first half of Sat due to good forcing with upr trough and continued swrly flow sfc and aloft, and have a likely pop through around noon, with rapid drying later in the day. It will be mild both days with highs in the 60s.

Sunday through Monday . Drier conditions with near to above normal temps expected late weekend to early next week as quasi zonal flow develops and progressive high pressure dominates.

Tuesday . Next potent cold front and possible low pressure system quickly advance towards the region by Mon night and Tue, and introduced 50-70% pops this period, focused on Tue as converging model solns focus timing of the next strong cold front moving through by later Tue.

Wednesday and Thursday . A return to dry albeit cooler weather pattern by Wed as long wave trough axis shifts to the eastern Seaboard with sfc high pres building into the region for midweek, with temps below normal.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Short Term /through Friday/ . As of 1210 PM Thu . VFR conditions currently across the area with mostly sunny skies. Pred VFR expected through 06z tonight, with prolonged period of sub-VFR conditions developing late tonight and early Fri morning. Will likely see ceilings lower to MVFR between 06-12z, with shower chances increasing after 15z Friday. Could see a period of LLWS develop Friday afternoon and evening as strong SW winds develop aloft.

Long Term /Friday night through Tuesday/ . As of 130 PM Thu . Sub-VFR conditions expected into Sat morning with widespread rain showers and low clouds. Return to VFR later Sat through early week as high pres builds back in.

MARINE. Short Term /Tonight and Friday/ . As of 305 PM Thursday . NNE/NE winds have trended down a bit this afternoon, but seas remain elevated along the coastal waters. Was able to drop the SCA for the Pamlico Sound earlier. Seas will remain 5-6 feet on the waters north of Oregon Inlet until after midnight. Elsewhere, frequent wind gusts to 25 knots coupled with seas up to 6-7 feet will persist on the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet and no changes made to SCA in those waters. Winds subside on all waters Friday, with more marginal seas for SCA, but will ramp up again ahead of a surface low moving just inland by tomorrow evening/night.

Long Term /Friday Night Through Tuesday/ . As of 130 PM Thu . Breezy to strong southwesterly winds develop as low pressure tracks along the coast Friday night, continuing into Saturday night. Hazardous seas of 6-10 ft persist through much of the weekend, before finally subsiding later Sunday as high pres begins to build into the area. More favorable boating conditions prevail early next week has high pressure dominates.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for AMZ152-154-156- 158. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for AMZ150.



SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . CTC SHORT TERM . CTC LONG TERM . CB AVIATION . CQD/CB MARINE . CTC/CB

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC	33 mi	66 min	NNE 9.9 G 22	48°F	55°F		1034 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC	43 mi	36 min	NNE 21 G 25	48°F			1033.9 hPa (-1.1)	41°F

Wind History for Beaufort, NC

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N12 G17

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NE14 G23

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S11 G15

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SW12 G17

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2 days ago

S3

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SW10 G13

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SW12 G15

SW12 G17

S12 G18

SW10 G16

SW9 G14

SW10 G14

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC	3 mi	1.7 hrs	NE 14 G 18	10.00 mi	Fair	48°F	30°F	50%	1035.4 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC	19 mi	1.7 hrs	NNE 15	10.00 mi	A Few Clouds	51°F	32°F	48%	1034.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEWN

Wind History from EWN (wind in knots)

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N9 G15

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SW15 G21

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S12

SW15 G23

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Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina

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Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (16,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC

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