Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Buxton, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 905 AM Wed...Latest analysis shows strong high pressure offshore, strong low pressure over Quebec with attendant cold front extending through the NE and Mid-Atlantic, then back through the Southern Plains. The front will grad sink southward through the day as weak low pressure develops along it, approaching the NC/VA border, the Albemarle Sound and the northern Outer Banks this evening. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon into the evening, with best chances north of Hwy 264, near the approaching frontal boundary. Despite the meager shear, a few strong to severe storms will be possible (best chances this evening), near area of enhanced instability, forcing and steep low level lapse rates. MLCAPES are forecast to reach 1000-1500 J/kg by 00Z. The main threat will be locally damaging wind gusts. Low level thickness values and deep SW flow will allow temps to climb into the upper 80s inland and upper 70s/low 80s for the beaches...while dewpoints continue to rise into the 60s.

Air Quality Alerts remain in effect for Jones and Craven counties due to the ongoing Black Swamp Wildfire. With S/SW winds continuing to advect smoke to the north, the NCDEQ has extended the Code Orange Air Quality Action Day for Jones and Craven counties until midnight tonight.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
As of 230 AM Wed...A weak backdoor cold front will sink southward towards the Albemarle Sound and northern Outer Banks this evening, before lifting back north early Thu morning. This boundary will likely serve as a focus for convection this evening. Despite the meager shear, sct showers and thunderstorms expected through the first part of tonight, likely focused north of Hwy 264, near area of enhanced instability, forcing and steep low level lapse rates. A few strong to severe storms with damaging wind gusts will be possible. Another very mild night, with lows in the 60s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 315 AM Wednesday...

Key Messages: - Next potential cold front impacts the area this weekend bringing unsettled weather to ENC.

Thursday: Ridge wil remain off the East Coast on Thursday as a low pressure system develops over the Plains in advance of a shortwave trough expected to lift northeastward across the CONUS. This low will drag the stalled front northward as a warm front. Southwesterly flow will persist through the day, with WAA yielding highs in the upper 80s (mid-70s along the Outer Banks). With pressure gradient remaining tight overnight between low to the north/northwest and high offshore, southwesterly winds are expected to remain slightly elevated overnight, and lows are forecast in the mid-to-upper 60s.

Friday through Saturday Night: Behind the initial shortwave trough forecast to move northeastward across the central Plains and Midwest Thursday, a separate upper-level trough will dig into the Midwestern US Friday into Saturday. These two features will yield a deepening surface low that is forecast to track northeastward across the Northeastern US/southern Canada, with an attendant cold front sweeping across the Ohio River Valley Friday as a prefrontal trough sets up across the mid-Atlantic. Cold front then later approaches ENC late Saturday. Guidance indicates two potential rounds of precipitation--one with the prefrontal trough Friday/Friday night and a better chance with the cold frontal passage Saturday. Guidance still differs on exact timing of frontal passage; however, there is fairly strong agreement for precipitation associated with the frontal passage. Latest trends have been to slow frontal passage slightly. Have reflected this in PoPs.

Guidance does indicate potential for thunderstorms Friday and Saturday with models depicting ~500 J/kg MLCAPE across ENC Friday afternoon and Saturday. Shear currently looks to remain more limited on Friday; however, enough deep-layer shear could be present to contribute to at least a low end threat for severe storms. AI/ML guidance continues to depict a non-zero threat for severe weather on Friday, so trends will continue to be monitored. Shear is forecast to increase as upper trough approaches on Saturday, and some AI/ML guidance hints at the possibility of severe weather. Any severe risk Saturday will likely depend on the exact timing of the cold frontal passage, which remains somewhat uncertain.

Sunday - Wednesday: Upper-level (and thus surface) pattern remain uncertain with main guidance (ECMWF/GFS) depicting very different solutions. GFS is the most progressive with the upper level pattern allowing upper trough to push out to sea before cutting off and allowing an Omega block to become centered directly over the Eastern Seaboard. While both Canadian and ECMWF guidance cut the trough off around the Eastern Seaboard with an omega block setting up further to the west. If the GFS pattern were to verify, high pressure ridge would settle into the region and bring benign weather to the area. If the Canadian/ECMWF pattern were to verify front would stall near the coast with an upper low sitting over the Mid-Atlantic allowing for continued unsettled weather into early next week. Will have to monitor trends either way to see how things shake out.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 1240 PM Wed...Pred VFR conditions trough the TAF period.
A front will sag into NE NC late this afternoon and evening, which will bring sct showers and tstms, and potentially a brief period of sub-VFR conditions, mainly north of Hwy 264. Gusty winds this afternoon will diminish to less than 10 kt tonight then become gusty again Thu afternoon.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 315 AM Wednesday...High pressure ridging will remain anchored off the Southeast Coast through Friday bringing primarily VFR conditions across all of ENC into the end of the week. There is a low end chance at seeing some sub-VFR conditions late Friday with the approach of a prefrontal trough with better chances at sub-VFR conditions this weekend as a cold front pushes through the area bringing the potential for shower and thunderstorms to the area.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 905 AM Wed...Latest obs show breezy SW winds 10-20 kt with seas 2-4 ft. High pressure will remain anchored offshore today and tonight, while a weak backdoor front approaches the northern waters and sounds this evening. Gusty SW winds will continue today, peaking this afternoon and evening due to the enhanced gradient resulting from the approaching front. SCA's remain in effect for the coastal waters Oregon Inlet to Surf City along with the Pamlico Sound, with SW winds increasing to 15-25 kt late this afternoon through the first part of tonight...with seas expected to peak at 3-5 ft. Gradient will grad relax a bit late tonight and early Thu morning. Sct showers and tstms will be possible late this afternoon and evening across the northern sounds and coastal waters, with potential for iso strong tstm with gusty winds.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 315 AM Wednesday...High pressure will remain anchored off the Southeast Coast through Friday. This will bring a general lull in impactful marine conditions until this weekend. As we get into Thurs, front lifts north as a warm front allowing the gradient to relax and for southwesterly winds to ease down to 10-15 kts with 2-4 ft seas. We do finally see our streak of benign boating conditions come to an end this weekend as a stronger cold front approaches from the west on Fri and Sat increasing winds closer to 15-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts and 3-5 ft seas resulting in the potential for SCA conditions at the end of the workweek and into the weekend.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ092-193- 194.
Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196- 199-204.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ135-152-154.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for AMZ156-158.