Friday, October18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Buxton, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 6:30PM Friday October 18, 2019 8:15 PM EDT (00:15 UTC) Moonrise 8:45PMMoonset 10:31AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ152 S Of Oregon Inlet To Cape Hatteras Nc Out 20 Nm- 647 Pm Edt Fri Oct 18 2019
.gale watch in effect from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon...
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds.
Sat night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 25 to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft after midnight. Dominant period 9 seconds, decreasing to 4 seconds after midnight. A slight chance of tstms. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain after midnight.
Sun..SE winds 25 to 35 kt, becoming sw 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. Rain with a slight chance of tstms in the morning, then rain in the afternoon.
Sun night..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. A chance of rain, mainly in the evening.
Mon..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Buxton, NC
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location: 35.13, -75.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 182227
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
627 pm edt Fri oct 18 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will build in through early this weekend. An
unsettled pattern is expected late in the weekend as the remnants
of tropical storm nestor move northeast across the area.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
As of 625 pm Friday... No changes to previous thinking. Another
clear and chilly night upcoming with axis of high pressure ridge
centered along the i-95 corridor. With low dewpoints in place,
temperatures will radiate nicely tonight with low temperatures
similar to last night with upper 30s over most inland areas,
lower 40s south coast, ranging to the lower 50s outer banks.

Cirrus clouds from nester could spread into southern sections
late but are not expected to inhibit radiational cooling. A
patch or two of light frost could occur in protected inland
areas, and some patchy, shallow radiational fog is also
possible, but neither should be of much consequence.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through 6 pm Saturday
As of 325 pm Friday... Saturday will be a transitional day as the
airmass across eastern nc changes drastically, going to
precipitable water values of well under an inch in the morning,
to nearly 2 inches by evening. High clouds will thicken by late
morning and lower during the afternoon. Per the latest high-
resolution output, some light precipitation may reach the far
southern zones during the latter part of the afternoon, but most
of the significant precipitation holds off until after 00z
Sunday.

Long term Saturday night through Friday
As of 330 pm fri... Two separate systems are progged to impact
our area in the long term. The remnants of nestor will cross
eastern nc tomorrow night into Sunday. Then, a strong cold front
is forecast to slide across the region in the middle of the
week, followed by high pressure building in and bringing a drier
and cooler airmass. Another front approaches the carolinas to
close the work week.

Saturday night into Sunday... The most active part of the period
will involve the remnants of tropical storm nestor in the gulf
of mexico. The system will be picked up by a shortwave over the
northwest gulf and strengthen before reaching florida. The
cyclone will make landfall across the florida panhandle early
tomorrow and then move over eastern nc tomorrow night into
Sunday as an extratropical low ahead of the negatively tilted
shortwave. Model guidance remains in excellent agreement in
regards to timing, and thanks to the presence of a potent LLJ of
40-50 knots and good divergence aloft, have raised pops into
categorical range this cycle.

There is still some uncertainty on exactly where the center of
the low tracks, which in turn has implications on where the
axis of heavy rainfall will be. The nam ECMWF track the low
further inland and has widespread rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches
mainly west of highway 17. The GFS features a solution closer
to the coast and has the higher rainfall amounts focused along
highway 17. Regardless, precipitable water is expected to surge
to 2"+ across all of eastern nc and most areas are forecast to
see beneficial rainfall amounts of at least an inch, with up to
3 inches possible closest to the low track. Given the area has
been dry, the risk for flash flooding appears low although urban
flooding issues are certainly possible. For coastal flooding
concerns, go to our "tides coastal flooding" section for more
information.

Severe weather remains a concern, especially along and east of
the low track where veering low-level winds will promote
favorable looping hodographs. Instability is weak (around 500
j kg) but sufficient effective bulk shear and storm relative
helicity (300+ m2 s2) point to a risk of an isolated tornado or
two especially overnight Saturday into Sunday morning when the
most optimal veering profiles are forecast to be in place. Spc
has eastern nc under a marginal risk of severe storms for
Sunday.

Besides the tornado threat, wind gusts up to 35-45 mph are
likely for coastal areas and the outer banks. Higher gusts are
not out of the question if the higher winds aloft can be mixed
to the surface. A wind advisory may need to be considered in
future forecasts.

Sunday night into Monday... The low shifts offshore with upper
ridging building in behind it. At the surface, weak high
pressure will build in behind the exiting systems and bring
drier conditions for Monday. Forecast 1000-850 mb thicknesses
support highs in the mid to upper 70s.

Tuesday through Friday... The next chance of rain comes on
Tuesday as a strong cold front slides east ahead of a deep
upper trough over the central u.S. The GFS continues to
advertise a less amplified trough which translates to a slightly
faster frontal passage, but regardless of timing issues
confidence is high enough to warrant likely pops for Tuesday for
the coastal plain. Behind the front strong CAA will help knock
highs back down to around seasonal levels with surface high
pressure building from the west. Another central u.S. Trough and
attendant cold front is forecast to approach the area at the
end of the week and can't rule out a few coastal showers along a
developing coastal trough on Friday. Will go with low end
chance pops for now. Temperatures will be at or slightly above
average.

Aviation 22z Friday through Wednesday
Short term through Saturday ...

as of 625 pm Friday... High confidence thatVFR conditions will
continue through most of this TAF cycle with high pressure in
control and a very dry airmass in place. Isolated pockets of
very shallow fog cannot be ruled out early Saturday morning, but
the probability is too low to include in the forecast at this
point. High clouds associated with TS nester located in the
northern gulf will start to thicken and lower late Sat morning
into early afternoon. Some MVFR ceilings could develop around
00z Sunday depending on the onset of precipitation associated
with nester which is expected over the area later Sat evening.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday ...

as of 330 pm fri... An area of low pressure will traverse eastern
nc tomorrow night into Sunday with rapidly increasing rain
chances starting 00z on Sunday. Expect a mix of MVFR and ifr
conditions with periods of lifr conditions in heavy rain,
especially for locations closer to the coast. Llws is likely
tomorrow night into Sunday with southerly 45-50 kt winds
possible at 5000 feet and ese winds at around 10-15 knots.VFR
conditions return Monday before deteriorating again on Tuesday
ahead of a passing cold front. A surge of drier air behind the
front is expected to usher inVFR conditions again for
Wednesday.

Marine
Short term through Saturday ...

as of 625 pm Friday... Earlier surge produced gusty winds and
rough seas for a few hours, but has now waned as all marine
buoys reporting seas at 4 feet or less and winds 15 knots or
less. The pressure gradient remains slack on Saturday with n
winds at 10 knots veering E later in the day as the remnants of
nestor start to move toward the area. Seas of 2-4 feet initially
this evening, drop to 1-3 feet over all waters by Saturday,
before things ramp up rapidly Saturday night.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday ...

as of 330 pm fri... Dangerous seas and winds arrive tomorrow
night as an area of low pressure traverses eastern nc. Seas are
expected to build as high as 10-12 feet by Sunday morning, and
lingering above 6 feet until Monday through Tuesday morning,
decreasing from south to north. Gale conditions appear likely
starting late Saturday night and continuing into Sunday
afternoon, and therefore have hoisted a gale watch for all
waters except rivers. As the low lifts north, a secondary
northerly surge is forecast on the backside of the low for
northern and central waters Sunday night into Monday morning.

Northerly winds weaken below 20 knots by Monday afternoon, then
veer to the SW and increase to 15-20 knots Tuesday ahead of a
cold front, becoming NW by Wednesday.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 330 pm fri... A fast moving but powerful low pressure
system will cross the area Saturday night though Sunday. At
least minor inundation of 1-2 ft above ground in very low-lying
areas is possible across much of coastal north carolina, both
oceanside and along the tidewaters Sunday morning and soundside
Sunday night as winds become northerly behind the low. Locations
in which dune structures were weakened during hurricane dorian
or last week's nor'easter will be especially vulnerable to
additional flooding.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Gale watch from Saturday evening through Monday afternoon for
amz135-150-152-154-156-158-230-231.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Jme ctc
short term... Ctc cb
long term... Ms
aviation... Jme ms
marine... Jme ctc ms
tides coastal flooding... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41025 - Diamond Shoals 18 mi26 min NNW 12 G 18 64°F 73°F3 ft1016.3 hPa45°F
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 35 mi46 min N 13 G 15 62°F 65°F1016.6 hPa
44095 45 mi30 min 76°F4 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 53 mi52 min NW 2.9 G 5.1 56°F 63°F1016.5 hPa

Wind History for USCG Station Hatteras, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hatteras, Mitchell Field, NC30 mi25 minVar 510.00 miFair60°F42°F52%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHSE

Wind History from HSE (wind in knots)
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2 days agoNE4E4E5E5E5SE8SE7SE9SE8SE9SE11E10
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
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Cape Hatteras
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:10 AM EDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:43 AM EDT     4.57 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:07 PM EDT     0.87 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:08 PM EDT     3.70 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.32.51.710.70.81.42.23.144.54.54.23.52.61.81.10.911.52.22.93.53.7

Tide / Current Tables for Avon, North Carolina
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Avon
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:07 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:41 AM EDT     3.18 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:15 PM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:03 PM EDT     2.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.91.30.70.30.10.20.61.322.73.13.22.92.31.60.90.40.20.20.61.11.622.2

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.