Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Buxton, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 4:58PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 7:09 AM EST (12:09 UTC) Moonrise 4:37PMMoonset 6:12AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ152 S Of Oregon Inlet To Cape Hatteras Nc Out 20 Nm- 658 Am Est Wed Dec 11 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday evening...
Today..N winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt this afternoon. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Showers likely early this morning, then a chance of showers late this morning.
Tonight..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds.
Thu..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers.
Thu night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. A chance of showers.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft, building to 7 to 10 ft after midnight. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Sat..SW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft, subsiding to 5 to 8 ft. Showers, then a chance of showers.
Sun..W winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Buxton, NC
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location: 35.13, -75.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 111152 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 652 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

SYNOPSIS. A strong cold front will exit the area this morning with high pressure building south from the Great Lakes. Another cold front and low pressure area will Friday into early Saturday. High pressure will then build over the region Sunday into Monday. Another low pressure area and cold front may move through by Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /TODAY/. As of 645 AM Wednesday . The final band of rain this morning associated with the 850mb frontal passage is now racing into our western tier of counties and bring roughly a half hour or so worth of precipitation as it heads towards OBX. Updated PoPs based on this feature, showing completely dry conditions by 10-11am. Temperature wise, forecast is in excellent shape thus far with no changes needed.

Prev disc . Eastern North Carolina remains firmly placed under deep southwesterly flow aloft ahead of an upper level trough digging into the Tennessee Valley as seen on WV imagery. At the surface, the cold front has quickly pushed offshore with all locations now seeing northerly winds, but at 850mb per RAP analysis the front is just now nearing Raleigh. The surface front has sparked a broken line of showers just offshore while the upper front is spurring some light rain/heavy drizzle moving across the Coastal Plain. This precipitation is expected to spread eastward in the near term with generally light accumulations as some drier air in the column is preventing more robust rain. QPF will average about 0.1 inches or so, with a few isolated amounts up to a quarter of an inch.

Precipitation will come to an end during the morning as the front and upper trough axis shift offshore and dry and cooler air advects in their wake, with sunshine eventually peaking in during the afternoon. With strong CAA during the day temperatures will hold mainly steady with highs in the low 50s for coastal areas, mid to upper 40s coastal plain.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/. As of 245 AM Wednesday . Strong high pressure builds in from the north during the evening as dew points drop further into the low 20s by Thursday morning. Skies will quickly trend mostly clear overnight, but with N/NE gradient winds expected to remain up to 5-10 knots temps no effective radiational cooling is expected. Regardless, lows will fall to around freezing and as low as the upper 20s in the coastal plain, with lows around 40 OBX where even stronger winds are expected.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 4 AM Wed . Periods of unsettled weather expected through the long term period, with roller coaster temps as a progressive/amplified active weather pattern is expected to continue.

Thursday through Thursday night . Strong high pressure will build in from the north with much cooler and drier air mass. Lows will be near or below freezing for all but the coastal areas on Thur morning, where brisk NNE winds will keep temps in the 30s and low 40s here. Despite the widespread sunshine, highs Thu only in the upr 40s/low 50s. Thur night will exhibit a non-diurnal temp curve, with lows likely being realized before midnight, whereafter clouds and increasing TD's ahead of next system will bring temps up towards daybreak, esp near the coast. There may even be a stray shower that brushes the OBX zones late overnight Thur.

Friday through Saturday . Rain chances inc Fri as deep srly flow increases with digging long wave trough across the lower MS River Valley, which will spur low pressure development over the deep south. This low will ride up the coast rapidly, with rain becoming likely through the day Fri, peaking Fri evening when best UVV/Fgen/PWATS will converge. Maintained the categorical pops this period, as good model to model consistency as well as spaghetti ensembles converging on this solution. Widespread moderate to heavy rain will be possible. Depending on exact track of the low, there could be potential for strong to even severe storms if storm track is further inland. Latest 11/00Z ECM continues to indicate aoa 500 J/KG of sfc based capes advecting into the area with plentiful shear overnight Friday. Upr trough will still be west of the region though deepest moisture will be offshore Sat morning. Could be quite a bit of showers around first half of Sat due to good forcing with upr trough, and have a likely pop for most of the area early, with rapid drying later in the day. It will be mild both days with highs in the 60s.

Sunday through Monday . Drier conditions with near to above normal temps expected late weekend to early next week as quasi zonal flow develops.

Tuesday . Next potent cold front and possible low pressure system quickly advance towards the region by Mon night or Tue, and introduced high chc pops to account for this. Continued warm as swrly flow ahead of the system will be present.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Short Term /through Wednesday/ . As of 650 AM Wednesday . Mainly MVFR conditions prevail this morning with a band of stratiform rain now encroaching on PGV and ISO this hour. This will bring some brief lowering to IFR during and an hour or two after passage for all sites before colder and drier air quickly brings in VFR conditions, raising ceilings and eventually mainly clear skies early this evening with gusty northerly winds. Dry conditions overnight with northerly winds at around 5 knots or so and no fog expected.

Long Term /Thur through Sunday/ . As of 4 AM Wed . Dry weather expected Thu as high pres in control. Some inc in clouds on Thur night ahead of next system. The low pressure area will quickly advance in on Friday, with sub VFR expected possibly into Sat morning with widespread rain showers and low clouds. Return to VFR later Sat into Sun.

MARINE. Short Term /Tonight and Wednesday/ . As of 250 AM Wednesday . Cold front has now pushed off the waters this morning with most buoys and coastal stations reporting northerly winds 10-20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Northerly winds will continue to increase in the next few hours with a few gale force gusts possible in the morning especially across the central waters, although this threat will be in too short a time frame to warrant Gale headlines. A brief lull in winds is expected tonight as front exits before strong high pressure builds back in tonight and retightens the gradient. Seas remain elevated at 5-8 feet through the period.

Long Term /Thu through Sunday/ . As of 4 AM Wed . No changes to previous thinking with an active weather pattern expected through the end of the week and into the weekend which will result in hazardous boating conditions with strong winds and elevated seas AOA 6 ft through the period. Winds will continue N 15-25 kt into Thur with large dangerous seas continuing above 6 ft through at least Sat as yet another storm system moves through the waters Fri night and Sat with winds switching to srly and swrly 15-25 kt with higher gusts.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ135- 231. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ131- 230. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for AMZ150-152-154- 156-158.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . MS SHORT TERM . MS LONG TERM . TL AVIATION . TL/MS MARINE . TL/MS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41025 - Diamond Shoals 18 mi39 min NNE 19 G 25 62°F 73°F1018.8 hPa60°F
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 35 mi57 min N 24 G 30 52°F 60°F1020.2 hPa
44095 45 mi53 min 63°F8 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 53 mi57 min N 15 G 26 50°F 58°F1021.5 hPa

Wind History for USCG Station Hatteras, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hatteras, Mitchell Field, NC30 mi18 minN 11 G 215.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist53°F50°F89%1022.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHSE

Wind History from HSE (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
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Cape Hatteras
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:14 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:16 AM EST     4.29 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:36 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:38 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:50 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:35 PM EST     3.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-00.41.12.13.13.94.34.23.62.61.60.70.10.10.51.22.12.93.43.432.21.20.4

Tide / Current Tables for Avon, North Carolina
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Avon
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:14 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:20 AM EST     3.43 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:51 PM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:38 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:33 PM EST     2.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.10.20.81.62.43.13.43.32.92.21.40.60.1-00.20.71.31.92.22.31.91.40.70.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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