Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Buxton, NC

KEY MESSAGES
1) Dense fog threat will return along the coast tonight and persist for the next few overnight periods.

2) Well above normal to near record conditions expected through early next week with high pressure ridging offshore.

Aviation...Increased risk of IFR/LIFR conditions late this evening into Friday morning.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Pattern across the CONUS remains stagnant, especially over the eastern portion of the country with pronounced mid-level ridging and persistent moist low-level southwesterly flow. After hanging on for much of the morning, lingering near-shore sea fog has lifted and all areas have good visibility today. Persistence forecast is the name of the game day with no change in the pattern except for even higher dew points, with fog developing close to midnight and hanging on into the morning hours with coastal areas likely socked in longer. Highest risk for lowest visibilities is areas along and south of US 70.

A similar pattern will continue for the next couple of days, and sea fog will likely persist in some fashion into Sunday morning. Expect the most widespread areas of fog to develop at night, especially after midnight, and fog could extend inland from the coast at times.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An anomalously strong ridge remain in place over the southeastern CONUS into early next week. This will bring near record temperatures possible for some inland zones some afternoons, especially tomorrow through this weekend (see Climate Section below). Highs will reach the upper 70s/low 80s generally along and west of US 17, and upper 60s/low 70s closer to the coast. The immediate coast will remain cooler due to very cold ocean/sound temperatures.

Latest forecast trends show a weak front moving into the Carolinas late this weekend and into early next week, bringing the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms...though it looks like well above normal temps will continue.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Another round of fog and low stratus is expected tonight.
Flight cats will remain VFR until ~08/09Z when VIS and CIGs will start to decline. Similar to the past few nights, IFR/LIFR sea fog is expected to develop first and then drift inland through the overnight hours (densest along the immediate coast). Inland areas may not see fog develop until early tomorrow morning, but a brief drop to LIFR VIS is still possible around sunrise. VIS should return to VFR by mid-morning except for the immediate coast where lingering sea fog could keep MVFR VIS through early afternoon. Widespread LIFR stratus is expected by early tomorrow morning with CIGs returning to VFR by ~15-16Z and fair weather cu developing in the afternoon. Winds will remain southwesterly at 5-10 kt through the period.

Outlook: A cold front will move into the area on Sunday, leading to a change in the weather pattern, but also bringing with it an increased risk of SHRA and TSRA. This risk may linger into early next week.

MARINE
SEA FOG: Persistence forecast remains for sea fog tonight, following the pattern of the previous nights. Sea fog will likely redevelop this evening in moist and anomalously warm southwesterly flow, eventually expanding overnight and bleeding into inland areas. A similar pattern will continue for the next couple of days, and sea fog will likely persist in some fashion into Sunday morning. Expect the most widespread areas of fog to develop at night, especially after midnight.

WINDS/SEAS: Pleasant boating conditions are expected (outside of fog) for the next couple of days with high pressure offshore.
Winds will be SSW/SW at 5-15 kts and seas 3-5 ft.

Outlook: Good boating conditions continue into this weekend.
Winds generally be 10-20 kts out of the S/SW as high pressure remains offshore. The pressure gradient will tighten Sunday and into early next week as a front move into the area, and winds/seas will approach Small Craft criteria for portions of the marine area. A stronger front may cross the region in the middle of next week, although significant timing and intensity differences remain.

CLIMATE
Record High temps for 03/05 (Thursday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 84/2015 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 74/1976 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 86/1923 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 76/2023 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 87/1976 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 83/1985 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 03/06 (Friday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 85/1961 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 76/1992 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 84/1961 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 74/1992 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 85/1976 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 82/1961 (NCA ASOS)

Record High temps for 03/07 (Saturday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 89/1974 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 74/2022 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 84/1961 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 74/1991 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 86/1908 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 85/1974 (NCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.