Buxton, NC Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Buxton, NC

May 8, 2024 4:42 AM EDT (08:42 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:07 AM   Sunset 8:00 PM
Moonrise 5:06 AM   Moonset 7:55 PM 
  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall  New

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Top   Marine   7-Day   NWS   Buoy   Airport   Tide   Map   GEOS   Radar  

Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      HIDE   Help
AMZ152 S Of Oregon Inlet To Cape Hatteras Nc Out 20 Nm- 331 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024

.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday morning through Friday morning - .

Today - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 6 seconds and ne 2 ft at 11 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms late.

Tonight - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 11 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.

Thu - SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 6 seconds and ne 2 ft at 11 seconds, becoming S 6 ft at 6 seconds and ne 2 ft at 11 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.

Thu night - SW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Wave detail: S 6 ft at 7 seconds and ne 2 ft at 10 seconds. Showers and tstms likely.

Fri - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 5 ft at 7 seconds and ne 1 ft at 12 seconds. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.

Fri night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: nw 3 ft at 6 seconds and ne 2 ft at 12 seconds. Showers likely with a chance of tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.

Sat - N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.

Sat night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft.

Sun - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft.

Sun night - W winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 331 Am Edt Wed May 8 2024

Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - High pressure will continue to strengthen offshore while weak troughing continues for the next few days, as warm moist southerly flow leads to unsettled conditions. A strong frontal system will move through Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Buxton, NC
   Hourly   EDIT   Help   Map   HIDE
NEW! Add second zone forecast


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
      HIDE   Help   
NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS62 KMHX 080734 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 334 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will continue to strengthen offshore while weak troughing continues for the next few days, as warm moist southerly flow leads to unsettled conditions. A strong frontal system will move through Friday. Drier and more seasonable temperatures expected this weekend.

NEAR TERM /TODAY/
As of 3 AM Wed...Latest analysis shows high pressure anchored offshore, weak sfc troughing inland and mid level ridge building over the SE US. Mid-upper level ridging will grad shift offshore today, allowing more of a zonal flow aloft to develop over the Carolinas. Within the flow, an impulse, or two, lifting out of the Lower MS Valley will move through the SE later today and tonight, interacting with a moist and unstable airmass to support an increased risk of clusters of thunderstorms. Locally, there will also be some potential for convection along the seabreeze, which may be pinned closer to the coast courtesy of the westerly low-level flow.

Challenging forecast regarding convective development today and tonight, and it remains low confidence. This type of setup is a classic one for MCS development, though with this type of pattern models can oftentimes struggle with the evolution of convection as it moves downstream. Diurnal heating of a warm, moist airmass will support moderate to locally strong destabilization this afternoon, with MLCAPEs increasing to 2-3,000 J/kg and deep layer shear 25-35 kt. This will support the potential for organized tstms, with potential for damaging winds (60+ mph), large hail (>1") and an isolated tornado.
The caveat is that the evolution of upstream convection will have a significant impact on the airmass, as any early convection would tend to keep instability lower, and vice-versa.
Eastern NC remains in a Slight risk of svr wx (west of Hwy 17)
and a Marginal risk (east of Hwy 17). Timing wise, it looks like the greatest svr wx threat will be late this afternoon into early evening...though depending on the evolution, the threat could linger later into the evening. 00z CAMs show little convective development before 20z.

Hot and humid today, with highs climbing to around 90/low 90s inland, and low to mid 80s for the beaches. Temps combined with dewpoints in the upper 60s will lead to heat index values peaking in the mid 90s for much of the area.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 3 AM Wed...Convective threat will likely linger through this evening and possibly through the overnight hours. Initial seabreeze driven convection will likely weaken will loss of diurnal heating this evening, with potential for a secondary round of convection overnight as weakening MCS moves across the Carolinas. The potential for svr wx will continue, with main threats still damaging winds, large hail and an iso tornado.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As 315 AM Wed... Most impactful weather looks to occur at the beginning of the period, though there does remain some uncertainty with regards to the severe threat on Thurs still. ENC then dries out over the weekend as high pressure ridge builds in from the west and remains over the area into early next week. Next potential round of unsettled weather begins to approach the area around midweek next week.

Thursday...As we get into Thurs, upper level trough over the Great Lakes begins to pivot to the south and east while a jet streak begins to expand over the Mid-Atlantic increasing lift. At the mid levels a fairly potent mid level shortwave rounds the base of the trough and tracks over the Mid-Atlantic Thurs afternoon/evening while at the surface deepening low pressure system in the Great Lakes tracks NE'wards into the Northeast with its associated cold front nearing western NC and a prefrontal trough setting up over the Coastal Plain Thurs evening. With this in mind, early morning shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast to clear out before additional development is forecast in the afternoon with activity likely beginning to the west and quickly moving E'wards into the FA. Out ahead of the trough and approaching cold front the environment across ENC appears rather supportive for severe weather. Model soundings and latest Hi-Res guidance suggest ample MLCAPE (1000-2000 J/kg) as well as ample DCAPE (700-900 J/kg) and inverted V soundings across the region. In addition to this, deep layer wind shear of 30-40 kts, slightly stronger forcing, and mid level lapse rates closer to 6.5- 7.0 C/km all suggest we will have another threat for strong to severe thunderstorms on Thurs afternoon and evening with storms bringing a threat for damaging wind gusts and hail given the environment. ENC remains in a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather Thurs afternoon and evening.

One potential failure mode for the Thurs threat would be what happens with Wednesdays convective activity. While it seems to be the outlier, some of the CAM guidance does suggest more robust tstm activity Wed night with a MCS moving to our south Thurs morning. If this were to occur, we could see lower instability values and thus a potentially lower severe threat as ENC gets robbed of more robust dynamics and moisture from the MCS to the south. With this in mind, current thinking is this solution has a 20% or less chance of occuring with an 80% chance for strong to severe thunderstorm activity on Thurs and the current forecast reflects this. Stay tuned to the forecast as we continue to refine it on the coming updates to see how this threat trends. Highs get into the low 90s inland and 80s across the OBX while lows only get down into the 60s.

Friday through early next week... Upper level troughing finally pivots out of the Great Lakes and overspreads the Mid-Atlantic on Fri into Sat with the last and likely strongest mid level shortwave rounding this troughs base on Fri. At the surface, low pressure in the Northeast will continue to trek NE'wards while its associated cold front finally tracks across the region slowing as it pushes offshore. A wave of low pressure then develops along this frontal boundary on Fri as well and tracks along or near the coast. Once again kept thunder in the grids for Fri as HRRR and NBM probs continue to highlight the potential for about 250-500 J/kg of SBCAPE to remain over the area. Either way Friday looks to have the best shot at widespread precip. Through the weekend and into next week general troughing remains over the Eastern Seaboard before gradually ejecting out into the Canadian Maritimes as upper level ridging begins to overspread the Southeast. Dry frontal passage currently forecast Sun evening into Mon before surface ridging begins to overspread ENC from the west on Mon. Temps do cool over the weekend closer to normal.

AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 3 AM Wed...Pred VFR conditions expected through most of the TAF period. HRRR probs for stratus early this morning, at less than 10%. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop late in the afternoon, mainly after 20z which may bring occasional sub-VFR conditions along with the potential to bring strong wind gusts and hail.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 315 AM Wed...Main concern for sub-VFR conditions would be within any shower or thunderstorm activity that impacts ENC Thursday afternoon and evening with a slightly higher potential for widespread sub VFR conditions on Friday as a cold front moves through the area and more widespread shower activity is forecast. As we get into the weekend and into early next week VFR conditions are then forecast for the rest of the period as high pressure ridging gradually builds in from the west.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 3 AM Wed...Latest obs show SW winds 5-10 kt north of Hatteras and stronger at 10-20 kt south of Hatteras, with seas 2-4 ft. SW winds will be increasing through the day as the thermal gradient strengthens. Could see a brief period of SCA conditions across the waters and Pamlico Sound late this afternoon and evening, with gusts to 25 kt, and seas building to 3-5 ft. There will be a risk of showers and thunderstorms, especially late afternoon through the overnight hours.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 315 AM Wed... Still expecting a cold front passage Fri morning with shower and thunderstorm activity out ahead of the front Thurs afternoon and evening. Additional shower and thunderstorm activity possible once again on Fri across all waters as the front pushes offshore and a weak wave of low pressure develops along the front. Locally enhanced winds and seas will be possible within any thunderstorm that impacts our waters. Drier weather then expected this weekend and into early next week.

Otherwise we start the period out under SCA conditions from Oregon Inlet south and across the Pamlico Sound as SW'rly winds out ahead of the cold front quickly increase after daybreak on Thursday to 15-25 kts with gusts in excess of 25-30 kts.
Elsewhere across the northern waters and sounds as well as the inland rivers, slightly lighter winds will persist closer to 15-20 kts with a few gusts up around 25 kts, though will have to monitor trends in case inclusion of SCA's becomes necessary especially along the N'rn coastal waters and Neuse river. As the front nears and eventually pushes offshore Fri morning SW'rly winds then decrease down to 10-15 kts, thus ending SCA's across all waters. Behind the front winds gradually turn to a W and then NW direction at 10-15 kts. By Sat light and variable winds are forecast as high pressure ridge gradually builds in from the west with W'rly flow at 10-15 kts returning Sun into early next week. 3-5 ft seas along our coastal waters to start the period quickly increase on Thurs to 5-8 ft. Seas then lower just as quickly on Fri morning back down to 3-5 ft and then to 2-4 ft by Fri evening remaining at these heights into early next week.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ156-158.




Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       HIDE   Help
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
41120 15 mi102 min 66°F4 ft
41025 - Diamond Shoals 22 mi42 min WSW 7.8G12 67°F29.78
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 35 mi54 min SW 7G8 68°F 68°F29.79
41083 43 mi162 min WSW 7.8 67°F 65°F29.79
44095 45 mi46 min 66°F3 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 53 mi54 min WSW 5.1G6 72°F 67°F29.79


Wind History for USCG Station Hatteras, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      HIDE   Help
toggle option: (graph/table)



Airport Reports
    EDIT      HIDE   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KHSE30 sm25 minWSW 043 smPartly Cloudy Mist 66°F66°F100%29.77
Link to 5 minute data for KHSE


Wind History from HSE
(wind in knots)
toggle option: (graph/table)


Tide / Current for Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
   
EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   HIDE   Help
Cape Hatteras
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:01 AM EDT     -0.49 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:08 AM EDT     3.85 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:55 PM EDT     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:31 PM EDT     4.85 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, Tide feet
12
am
0.8
1
am
-0.1
2
am
-0.5
3
am
-0.2
4
am
0.6
5
am
1.6
6
am
2.7
7
am
3.5
8
am
3.8
9
am
3.6
10
am
2.9
11
am
1.8
12
pm
0.7
1
pm
-0.1
2
pm
-0.4
3
pm
-0
4
pm
0.8
5
pm
2
6
pm
3.2
7
pm
4.2
8
pm
4.8
9
pm
4.8
10
pm
4.2
11
pm
3.1


Tide / Current for Avon, North Carolina
   EDIT      HIDE   Help
Avon
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:14 AM EDT     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:03 AM EDT     2.66 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:57 PM EDT     -0.52 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:32 PM EDT     3.93 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Avon, North Carolina, Tide feet
12
am
0.7
1
am
-0.1
2
am
-0.4
3
am
-0.3
4
am
0.2
5
am
1
6
am
1.8
7
am
2.4
8
am
2.7
9
am
2.5
10
am
1.9
11
am
1.1
12
pm
0.3
1
pm
-0.3
2
pm
-0.5
3
pm
-0.3
4
pm
0.4
5
pm
1.4
6
pm
2.5
7
pm
3.3
8
pm
3.9
9
pm
3.9
10
pm
3.4
11
pm
2.6


Weather Map
      HIDE   Help


GEOS Local Image of east us   
EDIT   HIDE



Morehead City, NC,





NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE