Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Buxton, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 7:45PM Sunday August 25, 2019 11:50 AM EDT (15:50 UTC) Moonrise 12:07AMMoonset 2:47PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ152 S Of Oregon Inlet To Cape Hatteras Nc Out 20 Nm- 1000 Am Edt Sun Aug 25 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late Tuesday night...
Rest of today..NE winds around 20 kt. Seas 7 to 9 ft. Dominant period 6 seconds. Scattered showers.
Tonight..NE winds around 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the evening. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. Scattered showers, mainly in the evening.
Mon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 5 to 6 ft in the afternoon. Dominant period 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers.
Mon night..NE winds around 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Dominant period 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers.
Tue..NE winds around 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Buxton, NC
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location: 35.13, -75.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 251400
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
1000 am edt Sun aug 25 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will remain stalled offshore into Monday. Low
pressure will lift northeast well offshore of the southeast
coast early this week. Another cold front will move through mid
week.

Near term through today
As of 10 am sun... No big changes with update. Latest radar
analysis indicates light rain or drizzle continuing across E nc,
though this activity not amounting to much in accums, and only
expect a hundredth or so inland. Showers will be sct along the
immediate coast ESP the obx through the rest of the day, so sct
coverage in fcst remains.

Prev discussion... As of 650 am sun... Latest analysis shows
front stalled off the SE coast, with 1030 mb high pressure
centered over the NE us extending into the mid- atlantic and se
us, resulting in a cad wedge pattern across the carolinas.

Latest radar imagery shows scattered light showers across the
area this morning. The upper level trough will continue to shift
eastward today as drier air continues to filter into the mid
and upper levels. Still some low level moisture which supports
isolated to widely scattered showers, best chances this morning,
then transitioning towards the coast late morning and
afternoon. Clouds may be tough to scour out until late in the
day from NW to SE with cad pattern. Temps will continue to be
pleasant and comfortable for august standards. Low level
thickness values and NE winds support highs in the upper 70s to
low 80s, and dewpoints generally 65-70 deg. Breezy along the
coast today, with NE wind gusts 25-30 mph, as gradient tightens
between high to the north and front to the south.

Short term tonight
As of 240 am sun... High pressure to the north will continue to
wedge into the area with sfc front stalled off the coast. Drier
air continues to filter in, and while could see a few showers
along the coast expect most of the area to remain dry. Pleasant
temps with lows dropping into the low mid 60s inland and upper
60s to low 70s along the coast.

Long term Monday through Saturday
As of 340 am sun... A drier conditions start at the beginning of
the work-week, then a cold front will approach the area from
the west midweek and push through Thursday resulting in showers
and thunderstorms. Afterward, high pressure builds in leading to
drier weather.

Monday through Wednesday... A weak mid upper level ridging will
be placed over the southeast and mid-atlantic region, while a
shortwave trough is over the ms tn oh valley. At the sfc,
conditions will be drier as high pressure continues to wedge
into the carolinas from the north, while a potential tropical
system to the SE of enc coast. The previous runs of the ecwmf
have been consistent with the potential tropical system to
remain well offshore, while the cmc, ukmet, and spaghetti models
continues to support the ecwmf output. Most of the impacts will
be related to the water in the form of rough surf and strong
rip currents.

The previous mentioned shortwave trough weakens or somewhat gets
absorbed with a broad trough along the northern stream as it approaches
the carolinas Tuesday. Remaining energy from the shortwave is
forecasted to trigger some showers Tuesday afternoon and showers
and thunderstorms for Wednesday. Expect highs 80-85 degree
range on Monday, then temps will moderate a bit more into the
mid to possibly some upper 80s by Wednesday. Overnight lows will
range in the upper 60s to low 70s inland and mid 70's along the
outer banks.

Thursday through Saturday... Models diverge at this point with
the timing of the cold front and beyond. The ECMWF continues to
be consistent with the past few runs with the front pushing
through enc by Thursday morning, while the GFS is running aoa
24-hours behind. Afterward there is some indication the frontal
boundary lifts north or becomes hung up near the coast, and some
showers develop with increasing fgen, so will keep slight to
chance pops. Trended closer with the ECMWF due to it's
consistency. Expect highs in the mid upper 80s and lows in the
mid upr 60s interior to low 70s coast.

Aviation 14z Sunday through Thursday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 650 am sun... Widespread ifr and lifr ceilings across the
terminals early this morning. CIGS shld slowly lift and
eventually begin to sct out as drier air works in withVFR
expected in the aftn. NE wind gusts 20-25 kt expected this
afternoon.

Long term Monday through Thursday ...

as of 340 am sun... A quasi-stationary boundary will well south
of the area through midweek... Leading to a drier trends. Still
can see occasional sub-vfr in regards to lower ceilings due to
lingering low level moisture. An cold front will approach the
area Wednesday leading to additional showers and thunderstorms.

Cold front is expected to push through Thursday.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 650 am sun... SCA conditions developing quickly across the
waters early this morning. Latest buoy obs indicate nne ne
winds 15-25 kt, and seas 7-10 ft north of hatteras and 3-5 ft
south. Moderate to strong NE winds and rough seas expected today
and tonight. Scas continue for the coastal waters, sounds and
neuse bay rivers into tonight. The gradient will continue to
strengthen today between high pressure to the north and front to
the south, as area of stronger winds expands southward. Ne
winds increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt and seas building
to 5-10 ft, highest north of hatteras. Leaned towards ec waves
with nwps and wavewatch several feet underdone north of hatteras
this morning. Strong NE winds will continue tonight with seas
remaining above 6 ft.

Long term Monday through Thursday ...

as of 340 am sun... Wind gradient will relax, though seas will
remain elevated due to the potential tropical system bringing
higher seas and swell. Expected NE winds 15-20 knots Monday,
becoming 10-15 Tuesday, while seas will be 4-6 ft across all
coastal waters and gradually subsiding from south to north
Tuesday. A return flow begins Wed with winds 10 knots or less
ahead of the approaching cold front. Then winds will become
northerly after the frontal passage. Seas 3-5 ft wed, becoming
2-3 ft Thursday.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 650 am sun... Dangerous surf conditions expected north of
cape hatteras today, with strong rip currents and dangerous
shore break. A high risk of rip currents continues north of cape
hatteras, with a moderate risk from CAPE hatteras to cape
lookout.

Minor water level rises will be possible for low lying areas
adjacent to the southern pamlico sound and neuse rivers
(including areas from downeast carteret, west towards cherry
point and oriental) through tonight, given the persistent
strong NE winds. Rises up to 0.5 ft above ground (1 ft above
normal) possible.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement until 8 pm edt this evening for ncz203-
205.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for amz137.

Small craft advisory until 11 am edt Monday for amz135.

Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Monday for amz131-230-231.

Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Wednesday for amz150-152-
154.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt Monday for amz156-158.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Cqd tl
short term... Cqd
long term... Bm
aviation... Cqd bm
marine... Cqd bm
tides coastal flooding... Mhx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41025 - Diamond Shoals 18 mi31 min NNE 21 G 27 80°F 84°F1015.1 hPa74°F
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 35 mi51 min NNE 16 G 25
44095 45 mi35 min 76°F9 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 53 mi57 min NNE 14 G 19 76°F 71°F1017.3 hPa

Wind History for USCG Station Hatteras, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hatteras, Mitchell Field, NC30 mi60 minNE 11 G 2310.00 miOvercast79°F72°F79%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHSE

Wind History from HSE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr5NE7NE7NE6NE8NE8NE9
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1 day agoSW10
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--6N5NE7NE6NE76NE6
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SW11SW11SW10----------------SW8SW8SW8SW9SW10

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
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Cape Hatteras
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:50 AM EDT     3.41 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:41 AM EDT     0.74 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:25 PM EDT     4.31 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:48 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:56 PM EDT     0.83 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.32.93.33.43.22.61.91.30.80.81.11.72.53.33.94.34.23.83.12.31.510.81

Tide / Current Tables for Avon, North Carolina
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Avon
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:51 AM EDT     2.10 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:53 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:39 PM EDT     3.09 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:15 PM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.722.11.91.61.10.60.20.10.30.81.42.12.733.12.82.31.610.50.30.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.