Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stonewall, NC

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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 231443 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 943 AM EST Sat Jan 23 2021

SYNOPSIS. Cool Canadian high pressure will build south over the Carolinas through the weekend. A warm front will lift north across the area Monday as strong low pressure passes by well to the west. High pressure will again build over the area Tuesday into Wednesday, before a strong coastal storm impacts the area late next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 945 AM Sat . No changes to the prev disc.

Prev disc . Zonal flow presides over the Carolinas early this morning with a low- amplitude upper level ridge taking shape over the southern Plains. At the surface, a broad 1026 mb high centered just east of the upper MS River Valley continues to build into the southeastern CONUS. A weak front crossed eastern NC earlier this morning with its most pronounced effect being westerly to northwesterly winds of around 10 kt over OBX.

Clear but chilly start to the weekend in the cards as upper ridge shifts east and surface high extends into the area. Biggest sticking point for today will be high temperatures as strong low-level CAA prevails over the area, driving low-level thicknesses down to ~1290 m. Lowered expected highs a couple degrees down to the suggested highs in the mid 40s, although with strength of CAA wonder if forecast is still too generous. Brisk NW winds at around 10 kt inland and 15 kt over the Outer Banks will keep wind chills in the 30s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/. As of 325 AM Sat . Upper ridge will continue to build over the Gulf Coast states while the surface high shifts overhead. Tonight will be about as good as it gets for efficient radiational cooling, and anticipate "MOS- buster" lows as temperatures fall to their coldest readings so far in the winter season. Inland locales should drop into the low to mid 20s, while OBX holds at or below freezing. Well shaded areas could dip into the upper teens.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 245 AM Sat . Dry weather is expected Sunday, with below normal temps. Then, a fairly complex storm system will move over the area Monday into Tuesday, bringing the potential for rain and gusty winds. Then high pressure will briefly build in on Wednesday, with another, stronger storm expected to impact the area Wednesday night into Thursday night.

Sunday . Continued cold and dry on Sunday with highs remaining in the 40s as high pressure prevails over the area.

Monday through Wednesday . High pressure will shift offshore early Monday morning, as a complex low pressure system moves out of the lower Mississippi Valley. A warm front, with possible weak wave along it, will move over the area Monday morning through the afternoon, as the parent low tracks into the Ohio Valley. Expect very good coverage of rain most of the day Monday due to isentropic lift, and have increased PoPs to categorical. Late Monday, precip will become more scattered in the warm sector, until a new triple point area of low pressure strengthens along the NC/VA border and tracks to the east. Best chances for rain Monday night will be along the northern tier and over to the NOBX in the evening, then increase over areas to the south late Mon night into early Tue as the cold front pushes into the area. The front is forecast to cross the region Tue night. Since the area will be in the warm sector, we will see temps reaching the 50s to low 60s on Monday, and then 60s to perhaps low 70s on Tuesday. Behind this system Tuesday night, temps will plunge into the 30s, with highs only in the 40s expected on Wednesday with high pressure briefly building in.

Wednesday Night through Friday . There is increasing confidence that another complex area of low pressure will move into the region Wednesday night, and then deepen rapidly off the NC coast Thursday into Thu night. Model solutions have converged on a low vicinity of NC Thu, but still differ greatly on the evolution and track of this system which leads to uncertainty on P-type/QPF amounts/and strength of the winds. This low would have the potential to deepen rapidly. Since the location of this low will be critical to determining impacts to the area, which could possibly include snow, heavy rain, very strong winds, and coastal flooding, it is still too early to determine the exact impacts to Eastern NC. The evolution of this system will be closely monitored over the next several days. Drier and much colder weather is expected Friday and Sat as the low pulls away and high pressure builds over the area.

AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Short Term /through 12Z Sunday/ . As of 610 AM Sat . High confidence in VFR conditions through the period. Still no clouds this morning as broad high pressure over the Upper Midwest expands into the area. Strong CAA in the wake of an overnight front will result in gusts to 15-20 kt during the day, before winds rapidly decouple after sunset as surface high moves overhead. Airmass is too dry to support potential fog formation Sunday morning.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/ . As of 245 AM Sat . VFR conditions are expected through Monday morning with high pressure and mostly dry weather over the airspace. A large storm system will move into the area on Monday into Tuesday, with sub-VFR conditions likely at times. VFR conditions are expected Tue into Wed as high pressure builds over the area.

MARINE. Short Term /Today and Tonight/ . As of 325 AM Sat . Marine forecast remains the most challenging part of this morning's package. Cold front has pushed off the waters with NW to N winds at 10-15 kt over the sounds, 15-20 kt over the coastal waters. Diamond Shoals again is over-performing guidance and has recorded gusts of 25- 30 kt for the past several hours, building seas to 5 feet and still rising this hour.

Highest confidence in the forecast is in regard to gusty northerly winds persisting along and north of Hatteras Island, where frequent gusts to 30 kt will drive seas to 5-7 feet. More problematic part of the forecast regards the waters south of Ocracoke Inlet. A good chunk of hi-res guidance shows a brief but potent northerly surge later this morning with CAA overspreading the waters, hinting at wind gusts to around 25 kt for about a 9-hour window. Based on the over-performances already observed this morning, opted to hoist a SCA for remaining coastal waters until 21z. Also moved starting times up for previously existing SCAs from Ocracoke Inlet north.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/ . As of 245 AM Sat . Though the northerly winds will be diminishing Sunday from 15-20 kt early to 5-10 kt late, 6 ft seas will likely be ongoing over portions of the northern and central waters Sunday morning. Monday as a warm front crosses the area, winds will increase to S/SW 15-25 kts, and then further strengthen to 25-30 kts Monday night with a period of Gale Force winds possible over the central waters, resulting in seas building to 6-12 ft late. Winds will subside slightly on Tuesday, but remain W 15-25 kts, with elevated seas continuing. Wednesday N winds 15-20 kt will diminish to 10-15 kt. Seas 3-5 ft will subside to 2-4 ft.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for AMZ150-152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ156- 158.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . MS/ML SHORT TERM . MS LONG TERM . JME AVIATION . JME/MS MARINE . JME/MS

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC	30 mi	52 min		46°F	50°F		1021.9 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC	38 mi	40 min	NNW 16 G 19	45°F			1021.6 hPa (+2.4)
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC	52 mi	52 min		43°F	50°F		1020.8 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC

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NW8 G14

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC	15 mi	44 min	NNW 12	10.00 mi	Fair	45°F	29°F	54%	1021.9 hPa
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC	20 mi	46 min	N 9 G 16	10.00 mi	Fair	46°F	23°F	40%	1022.1 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC	22 mi	46 min	NNW 16	10.00 mi	Fair	46°F	24°F	42%	1021.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNBT

Wind History from NBT (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina

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Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Ground Weather Radar Station

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