Sunrise 6:15 AM   Sunset 7:54 PM Moonrise 12:44 AM   Moonset 10:26 AM

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AMZ137 NEuse And Bay Rivers- 953 Pm Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
Overnight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Wed - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon. Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the evening. Thu - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves light chop. Thu night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Fri night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Sat - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Sat night - SE winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 953 Pm Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - High pressure will remain anchored offshore through mid week. A cold front will impact the area late in the week.

FXUS62 KMHX 300559 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 159 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will remain anchored offshore through mid week. A cold front will impact the area late in the week.

NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/
As of 1915 Monday...No changes required to the near term.

Previous Disco as of 300 PM Mon...Very quiet weather pattern in place over the eastern CONUS this afternoon. Mid- level ridge remains overhead today as high pressure centered over the Atlantic extends onshore. This pattern will remain in place tonight, with continued southwesterly flow keeping overnight temperatures mild under clear skies - upper 50s to low 60s.
Guidance has backed off a bit on low stratus potential overnight, with now only the NAM and ARW advertising such development. Both of these models have a history of being too aggressive in showing low stratus in south to southwesterly flow, and given the lack of support from any other guidance (including a reliable GFS LAMP) did not reflect this in the forecast.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
As of 300 PM Monday...Upper ridge will begin to break down tomorrow as a strengthening shortwave trough, currently digging into eastern Texas, shifts eastward. Attendant surface low pressure/trough will also move across the southeastern CONUS, bringing unsettled weather ahead of it. Eastern NC will remain under the influence of the ridge into Tuesday evening, keeping conditions dry but with increasing high clouds as upper level moisture increases. The minority of guidance quickest with the surface trough/low does show some isolated shower activity impacting the coastal plain around sunset tomorrow, but probability of this is too low (under 10%) to include mentionable PoPs. Temperatures will be a degree or two warmer than today, in the low to mid 80s inland.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 330 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Low to mid 80s for the rest of the week

- Best rain chances Wednesday and then this weekend

FORECAST DETAILS

Dry weather should prevail Tuesday with the system not making its way to ENC until Wednesday. With this disturbance expected to pass during Wednesday's peak heating, showers and thunderstorms are possible across the area (30-55% chance).
Although thunderstorms are possible, severe storms are less likely as very little shear is expected.

Thursday has trended drier for showers and thunderstorms with PoPs below slight chance. Temperatures will remain high with upper 80s inland to mid to upper 70s along the coast.

A little more moisture advection Saturday and Sunday with both the Bermuda High and an approaching frontal system from the west contributing to the increase in precipitable water. Increasing chances for rain and thunderstorms (35-40%) by Saturday afternoon and then lingering into Sunday as the front moves into the region. Temperatures slightly cooler both days but still well above normal for this time of year.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 06z Wednesday/...

As of 145 AM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Sub VFR conditions possible overnight (30-50% chance)

FORECAST DETAILS

The main forecast challenge over the next 6-8 hours will be the potential for BR/FG/low stratus. With high pressure offshore to the southeast of Eastern NC, a moistening low-level flow is ongoing from the Atlantic into the Carolinas. Within this flow, there is evidence on satellite imagery of some attempt at FG or stratus from coastal SC north into SE NC. While moisture advection overnight is expected to be stronger than this time 24 hrs ago, it's still unclear whether or not the depth of moisture will be sufficient for impactful sub- VFR conditions or not. For now, I've kept the TAFs as-is, with no changes to the 00z TAFs (regarding the fog/stratus potential). Stay tuned for amendments if needed.

Any fog or stratus that develops is expected to mix out with daytime heating on Tuesday. During the day Tuesday, gusty S to SW winds up to ~20kt are likely with daytime mixing and the passage of the seabreeze. With increasing moisture, I expect more cumulus with the seabreeze today, but the risk of SHRA still appears low (<10% chance). Late Tuesday evening, continued moisture advection is expected to lead to the development of mid-level CIGs ahead of an upper level wave approaching from the west. There will be a chance of SHRA and TSRA with this wave, but not until after the current 06z TAF cycle.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 330 PM Monday...Pred VFR expected through the period. An approaching disturbance will bring some chances for precipitation Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 310 PM Tuesday...Quiet boating conditions in place this afternoon over area waters as high pressure remains anchored to our southeast. Regional observations show southwesterly winds of 10-15 kt with seas averaging 3 feet with periods of 10-11 seconds. Little change in these conditions are expected through the period. Like yesterday, an increase in winds across the northern waters and sounds with a tightening thermal gradient is expected and a few spotty gusts to 25 kt are possible. This is not expected to last long enough to warrant SCA. A similar pattern is expected tomorrow, although for a broader swath of near-shore waters.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 330 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Good boating conditions expected early this week

FORECAST DETAILS

High pressure will shift offshore early this week, with inland troughing developing in the lee of the Appalachians. Winds will steadily increase early next week with southwesterly flow of 10-20kt common. Seas of 3-5 ft will be common through early next week, setting up good boating conditions for several days.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Core Creek Bridge
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Mon -- 12:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:54 AM EDT     2.30 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:48 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:25 PM EDT     1.84 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:39 PM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

North River Bridge
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Mon -- 12:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:52 AM EDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:10 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:19 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:24 PM EDT     1.57 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:01 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

North River Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

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Morehead City, NC,