Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stonewall, NC

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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 122019 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 419 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak front will gradually dissipate off the coast today. Another weak front is expected to approach the area on Monday, followed by Bermuda high pressure dominating and inland lee trough over the piedmont.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 400 PM Sun . Broad troughing in place over the eastern CONUS this afternoon with two distinct shortwaves rotating around the feature. The first is currently overhead and expected to exit offshore tonight, while a more potent shortwave was noted over the Ohio Valley. It is this feature that will bring us more active weather tomorrow as it digs into the mid- Atlantic. At the surface, a front remains stalled offshore with the sea breeze advancing north from the coast. Another cold front was noted over the southern OH valley, which will dive south towards the Carolinas tomorrow.

Radar shows hardly any activity along the sea breeze with dry air winning the battle this afternoon. Very isolated activity remains possible before sunset. There is a pretty remarkable moisture gradient in place with Tds in the mid to upper 70s along the coast, with mid to low 60s over the coastal plain (Washington is currently reporting a Td of 59 degrees). This will not last today with moist southerly flow, and expect Tds to rise back above 70 area-wide overnight. Consequently, lows will only fall into the mid 70s, closer to upper 70s near the coast. If we can squeeze out some appreciable rainfall before sunset, those areas will be susceptible to patchy fog early tomorrow morning.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/. As of 400 PM Sun . The aforementioned shortwave in the Ohio Valley will dive south into an unstable environment tomorrow, characterized by bulk shear of around 25-30 kt. There's a bit of spread on how much instability is available, with the NAM 3km showing well north of 4000 J/kg MLCAPE. Most other CAMS (and the HREF mean) show still impressive CAPES of 3000 J/kg along the coast and ~1500-2000 inland. This, in combination with upper level support from the shortwave, will provide a favorable environment for organized clusters of storms with the main threat being damaging wind gusts.

Most CAMS show consensus on storm evolution tomorrow with the NAM being an outlier. As is typical for summer, storms will fire along a developing seabreeze and stay along the coast with northeasterly storm motions at 20-25 kt, while a second cluster will develop ahead of the approaching surface front and advance south towards the coast. Activity will weaken after sunset, although shower and storms will probably be ongoing towards midnight, like we observed Friday evening.

Low-level thicknesses change little tomorrow but with increasing cloud cover associated with the shortwave, highs should be a degree or two "cooler" tomorrow but still around 90 degrees.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 300 AM Sun .

Tuesday through Friday . Upper level heights rise to 594 DM by the end of the week which will continue our summerlike pattern through the end of the week. Daily convection is possible along the sea breeze, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. By later in the week while something isolated can't be ruled out, the overall chances will dip a bit with building subsidence from our upper level ridge.

Saturday . Pretty far out to get too cute but signs point toward a weakness in the upper level heights with the ridge retreating west a bit. This may allow for a better chance for thunderstorms but with it being 7 days out, capped chances at 30%. Remaining hot with highs in the 90s inland.

AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Short Term /through 18Z Monday/ . As of 2 PM Sunday . VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Cu field this afternoon providing sct skies. EWN and OAJ have best chance of experiencing late afternoon tstorms. Winds out of the SW 7kts or less with a chance of gusts associated with outflows from any tstorms that do develop. Slight chance of fog tomorrow for OAJ and EWN, but that will be dependent on rainfall late this afternoon/early evening so BR/FG was omitted from this cycle. Tomorrow SCT to BKN skies between 7k and 8k ft working in from NW moving SE. Winds will be S to SW 7kts or less except for EWN which shows 8kt winds gusting up to around 15kts.

Long Term /Monday night through Thursday/ . As of 2 PM Sun . Mainly VFR through the period. Monday a shortwave enters the region bringing an increased chance of showers and tstorms developing after 18Z. Potential for brief MVFR restrictions especially during the afternoon in periods of showers or thunderstorms. Early morning fog also possible in the footprint of afternoon/evening rainfall.

MARINE. Short Term /Sunday night and Monday/ . As of 415 PM Sun . Latest buoy observations show south to southwesterly flow over the water with seas 3-4 feet for northern waters, and 4-5 feet central and southern waters. Diamond Shoals reported 6 foot seas for a time. Guidance shows seas increasing with pinched gradient between high pressure offshore and an approaching cold front/shortwave currently in the Ohio Valley. Although gusts should remain below 25 kt, seas will build to 4-6 feet for central and northern waters with a few 7 footers possible in the outer waters. NWPS initialized reasonably well but seemed a little too aggressive with seas tomorrow, so blended in the slightly more conservative NBM to knock seas down a foot or two. Seas will slowly diminish Monday as the front departs.

Long Term /Monday Night through Thursday/ . As of 430 AM Sun . 6 foot seas will linger early in the long term period with improving marine conditions through mid week.

6 footers linger Monday especially central waters with southwest winds 10 to 20 kts. Sea subside to 2 to 4 feet Tuesday, as winds diminish to under 10 kts. Wind directions will be a bit tricky over the waters Tuesday with a boundary cutting through the area. Winds over the northern waters will be more northerly, while a southwest flow will continue south of Cape Hatteras. Winds back toward the southeast through the end of the period and remain light, or generally 5 to 15 kts with seas 2 to 3 feet.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ156. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM EDT Monday for AMZ158.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . MS SHORT TERM . MS LONG TERM . EH AVIATION . EH/CEB MARINE . EH/MS

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC	30 mi	62 min	SSW 14 G 18	84°F	86°F		1009.8 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC	38 mi	56 min	SSW 16 G 19	83°F			1009.2 hPa (-1.0)
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC	52 mi	62 min	SSW 12 G 16	84°F	85°F		1009.6 hPa

Wind History for Beaufort, NC

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC	15 mi	2 hrs	SE 9	10.00 mi	A Few Clouds	90°F	73°F	58%	1009.9 hPa
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC	20 mi	62 min	S 10 G 18	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	87°F	75°F	67%	1008.6 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC	22 mi	62 min	S 11 G 17	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	88°F	75°F	68%	1008.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNBT

Wind History from NBT (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina

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Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (17,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC

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