NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
As of 10 PM Thursday...No major changes for the forecast in this update. Scattered showers moving westward towards OBX and Crystal Coast, and as a result have PoPs gradually increasing along the coast through tonight.

Previous Discussion
As of 415 PM Thursday

- Increased chance of coastal showers through tonight

Satellite imagery this afternoon reveals a broad area of low pressure off the Southeast U.S. coastline, with a warm front arcing northeast through the SW Atlantic. As of this writing, that warm front is located roughly 60-80 miles SE of Cape Hatteras. This warm front is forecast to move NW through this evening, reaching the coast by midnight. The inland progression of the warm front may be slowed by ridging trying to build south out of the Mid-Atlantic. This, then, sets up more of a stationary front/coastal trough type scenario tonight.
Meanwhile, on the outer edges of the remnants of Francine, a plume of deeper low-mid level moisture over the Atlantic is forecast to get pulled north into the Carolinas. The combination of increasing moisture plus the increased low-level forcing along the SFC boundary should support an increased risk of showers and a few thunderstorms tonight, especially along the coast. With this forecast update, I've increased the chance of showers some, especially across southern sections of ENC.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
As of 10 PM Thursday...Increased PoPs Friday with this update, particularly for southern portions of the CWA 18Z guidance added confidence to the heavy showers expected Friday, and with scattered to widespread precip expected in the morning and afternoon hours, capped PoPs at 74%. Flash Flooding concerns exist for the Crystal Coast with the 18Z HRRR suggesting 24 hr precip totals have a 20-30% chance of exceeding 5" in this region.

Previous Discussion
As of 200 PM Thursday

- Monitoring the potential for heavy rain on Friday

A stationary boundary or coastal trough is forecast to setup across ENC on Friday as low-mid level moisture continues to get pulled north into the Carolinas well to the east of the remnants of Francine. Guidance differ on how far north the deeper moisture will get, but there is a good signal for scattered, to potentially numerous, showers and thunderstorms across at least the southeastern half of ENC on Friday, and I've increased the chance during this period given the recent wetter trends seen in ensemble guidance. It should be noted that the depth of moisture, increasing low-level convergence, and slow storm motions has the potential to produce periods of intense rainfall rates. Recent short-term ensemble guidance have shown a significant increase in rainfall totals through Friday, with a reasonable worst case scenario of 2-4" for many areas. This is a fairly large change from previous runs, and I don't want to jump on one solution too quickly, but it's certainly worth noting as this could introduce some short-term hydro concerns.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 420 AM Thursday...Rex block develops by Friday across the Eastern CONUS while the upper low associated with the remnants of Francine stalls across the Tennessee River Valley. At the surface, a frontal boundary or coastal trough will remain near ENC through Saturday. There remains lower than avg confidence as far as precip goes so kept max PoPs at Chc mainly along and east of Hwy 17 as this area will be closest to the coastal trough. With high pressure wedged in to the north, east to northeast winds will prevail and result in seasonably cool temps with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Sunday into midweek... There still remains a fair amount of uncertainty with the forecast from Sunday and beyond. Francine is forecast to dissipate over the Tennessee River Valley with the upper level low associated with Francine gradually opening up into a broad trough and shifting from the Tennessee River Valley to the Southeast Sun into Mon. As this occurs a weak upper level low then develops off our coast and gradually tracks northwestwards into the Southeast as well. At the surface a wave of low pressure gradually develops Sun into Mon and is forecast to then track NW and track into the Southeast sometime between Mon and Tue. This is forecast to continue to bring unsettled conditions and at least a chance for daily precip to ENC through midweek. Will note, guidance has since backed off development of this aforementioned low as compared to last nights guidance, however, given this is a recent trend did not change the forecast much.
Given that blocking patterns can be notoriously difficult to predict, expect a lot of variability in model solutions in the coming days and as a result still capped PoP's at SChc to Chc until more certainty in the eventual outcome of this lows exact track and strength comes into focus. Expect avg to slightly below avg temps from Sun on into midweek given expected cloud cover, increased chance for showers and storms and continued E'rly onshore flow.

AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 00z Saturday/...
As of 730 PM Thursday...

- Increased risk of sub VFR CIGs and VIS tonight into Friday

A warm front is forecast to move northwards towards the coast of ENC tonight, then stall near, or over, ENC on Friday.
Increasing moisture along that boundary should support an increase in low CIGs and SHRA. A few TSRA will be possible as well (10-30% chance) with highest chances near the coast. With this TAF update, I've trended the forecast more pessimistic regarding low CIGs and SHRA, especially from KOAJ to KEWN.
Recent guidance suggest CIGs and VIS could end up even lower than forecast, with a period of IFR/LIFR conditions within the realm of possibility. If IFR/LIFR CIGs do develop Friday, it will likely be along and south of hwy 70, including KEWN, KOAJ, and KISO where moisture convergence is the highest.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 420 AM Thursday...A frontal boundary will lift north toward the area late in the week while at the same time a coastal trough develops just offshore. This will allow for a period of unsettled weather to set up across ENC starting on Fri and continuing into next week. As a result increased chances of sub-VFR conditions are likely through this weekend. Otherwise E-NE winds at 5-15 kts with gusts up near 20 kts will be possible through the entire period.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Friday/..
As pf 10 PM Thursday...Added coastal waters from Duck to Oregon Inlet to the list of Small Craft Advisories from 6Z to 15Z Friday for 6 ft seas. While some guidance shows 6+ ft seas continuing beyond 15Z Friday for the northern waters, confidence remains too low to extend it out further at this point.
Otherwise, seas 5-8 feet, highest off of Hatteras Island and NE winds 15-20 kts gusting to 20-25 kts.

Previous Discussion
As of 415 PM Thursday

- Hazardous conditions for small craft continue south of Oregon Inlet

Eastern NC remains sandwiched in between high pressure to the north, and low pressure to the south. Additionally, a warm front is located about 60-80nm SE of Cape Hatteras. The pressure gradient associated with these features is supporting widespread 15-20kt winds across the ENC waters this afternoon, and these conditions are expected to continue into Friday. As the warm front nears the coast, the gradient is forecast to tighten up some, with winds responding by building to 15-25kt (strongest south of Cape Hatteras). Across the coastal waters, seas of 4-7ft are expected to continue into Friday. The current marine headlines handle the ongoing conditions well, and no changes were needed for this forecast update. Eventually, expansions to the headlines will be needed as we move beyond Friday.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 420 AM Thursday...A warm front or coastal trough is forecast to develop over the area this weekend. This will act to tighten the pressure gradient allowing for 15-25 kt E-NE'rly winds through the weekend. As we get into early next week, a low pressure system may develop tightening the pressure gradient further and increasing winds but confidence is low in the lows strength and exact track so will just mention the increased threat for elevated winds at into midweek next week. In addition to the increased winds, elevated shower and thunderstorm chances will begin starting Fri in association with the aforementioned coastal trough. Elevated seas will also persist through the period with the approach of the coastal trough and eventual low pressure system next week resulting in seas building from 4-6 ft Fri to 8-12 ft by Sunday. As a result SCA's remain in place for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet with the SCA's persisting into the end of the period. Will likely need SCA's for the coastal waters north of Oregon Inlet later this week as well given current trends.

HYDROLOGY
As of 415 PM Thursday...

Recent short-term ensemble guidance have trended notably wetter for tonight and Friday across the southern half of ENC, with reasonable worst case scenario rainfall amounts of 3-6" possible for areas south of HWY 70. This is a fairly significant increase compared to previous guidance, which is noteworthy, but also doesn't guarantee the worst case scenario. Should the worst case scenario amounts unfold, there would be a subsequent increase in the risk of flooding/flash flooding concerns. We're just coming out of a period of dry weather, and 1 hr FFG values are high (2-3"), which should prevent a more significant flooding risk. But, where rainfall rates are the highest, there could be at least a few instances of flooding/flash flooding.

Beyond Friday, there continues to be a solid signal for multiple rounds of heavy rainfall associated with the development of low pressure off the Southeast U.S. coastline.
We'll continue to monitor trends in guidance, as a renewed flooding risk may develop in the coming days.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday evening for NCZ196- 203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to noon EDT Friday for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154-156- 158.