NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
As of 5 PM Sun...Little change in the current weather is expected through most of tonight. Scattered showers will continue to stream across the area to the north of a developing and nearly stalled low pressure system. Strong NE/ENE winds will also continue at around 20-30 mph, highest along the coast, and temperatures will remain mild and in the 70s.

By early tomorrow morning conditions will begin to deteriorate as the low pressure system to our south continues to strengthen and drift northward and may become a tropical storm (see discussion below). Rain chances will increase just before daybreak along the southern coast as out bands from the circulation move onshore. Winds will also increase slightly with gusts over 40 mph possible.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
As of 5 PM Sun...Biggest development this afternoon has been the increased potential of a tropical storm forming to the south of the Carolina coast tonight or tomorrow. The National Hurricane Center is starting advisories on what will be called PTC (Potential Tropical Cyclone) #8, and Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for Eastern NC from Surf City to Ocracoke Inlet.

Overall, the expected threat from this low whether it meets the characteristics of a tropical storm has not changed much, however there is increased potential for further strengthening of this low before landfall now that it is becoming better organized.

*TIMING*

Impacts from this system will begin tomorrow morning as rain showers move inland from the the southeast, and spread northward through the day. Winds will strengthen tomorrow morning as the low tracks northward towards Cape Fear, and winds should peak late morning or early tomorrow afternoon across the area.

*IMPACTS*

-Flash Flooding

Very heavy rainfall is expected to fall from this storm as PWATs surge over 2" by tomorrow. Expect the heaviest rain amounts along and south of US 70 with up to 4-7 inches possible (and locally higher amounts possible). Lesser amounts of 3-5 inches can be expected further north, however with there still being uncertainty in the track and intensity of this storm, expected rain totals could vary from the current forecast.

-Coastal Flooding

The coastal flooding threat has changed very little, but there is now potential for up to 3 ft of water AGL in low lying areas.
See Coastal Flooding Section below for more details.

-Tornado Potential

The current forecast track of PTC 8 moving north over Cape Fear tomorrow would bring right front quadrant of this system across Eastern NC. Due to this a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment will develop over the area, and there will be a risk for tornadoes. Of course much uncertainty exists with this aspect as well, and the ultimate threat of tornadoes will depend on the strength of the circulation and exact track.

-Strong Winds at the Coast

Winds will strengthen to 30-40 mph along the coast tomorrow, with potential for wind gusts to reach 40-50 mph especially within rain bands. This may cause sporadic power outages and/or tree damage.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 6 PM Sun...
Eastern North Carolina will remain unsettled through the entire period as an impactful low moves out of the area Tuesday. Beyond that, troughing over the Eastern Seaboard will continue to bring daily chances for showers and thunderstorms across the region into next weekend.

Tuesday...The low then continues inland on Tue eventually lifting north of the region by Tue afternoon allowing for much more benign weather to finally begin to overspread ENC for at least a brief time period Tue afternoon and evening. Expecting below avg temps across ENC Tue with highs only getting into the 70s to low 80s while lows get down into the 60s to low 70s.

Wednesday into the weekend... Previously mentioned upper trough will remain over the Eastern Seaboard through the end of the week while at the surface previously mentioned low is forecast to be to the north and likely dissipated. As we get into the weekend there is increasing uncertainty with the forecast as the upper trough over the Eastern Seaboard looks to cutoff into an upper low in the Southeast as upper ridging builds across the Northeast but there is a rather large spread in timing and depth of the cutoff low this weekend across all available guidance so the forecast beyond Friday is low confidence.

Either way, daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across ENC into the weekend as troughing continues to remain a focus for shower and tstm activity. Will note however, winds will finally ease by Wed as the pressure gradient relaxes as a weakness in the ridge centered to our north briefly develops, though a second ridge of high pressure does begin to extend south into the area by Friday. Otherwise continued onshore flow will keep clouds around the region while temps remain at or below avg.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Monday afternoon/...
As of 1930 Sunday...Mostly VFR currently with bouncing MVFR CIG and VIS due to showers over inland terminals which is expected to continue for a few more hours with a brief lull in shower activity after midnight. MVFR ceilings first return to PGV/ISO as low stratus builds over the Coastal Plain, similar to last night. Rain chances then increase for all terminals from south to north tomorrow morning as the low begins to migrate northward toward the coast. This will also bring associated MVFR CIGs , and eventually IFR flight cats by midday Monday.
Winds generally ENE 10-15kt with infrequent gusts to 20kt overnight strengthen through the morning Monday, peaking late morning/early afternoon. Highest windspeeds near coast, approaching 30kt gusts with higher gusts possible under stronger storms. Crosswind hazard for EWN runway 14R/32L mid-morning onward. LLWS concerns come into the play after the end of this TAF period for OAJ.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 6 PM Sun...Continued unsettled weather will bring a chance for sub-VFR conditions across ENC Tue as a low pressure system moves out of the area. After the low moves to the north we will still see at least a low end threat on Wed and Thurs for sub- VFR conditions as daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will remain.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 6 PM Sun...Dangerous boating conditions expected through tomorrow as winds remain strong and even increase as an area of low pressure develops to our south. This low may become a Tropical Storm tonight or tomorrow and NHC has started writing advisories on it as PTC (Potential Tropical Cyclone) #8.

Winds tonight will be ENE at 20-30 kts, with the highest winds south of Cape Hatteras. By early tomorrow morning winds will increase to 25-35 kts with gusts to 40-45 kts south of Cape Hatteras, and 25-30 kts with gusts to 35 kts to the north. Winds will likely peak sometime in the early afternoon, and slowly weaken late in the day. Seas will continue to be quite hazardous through tomorrow. Expect waves to range from 8-13 ft through tonight, and then increase to 10-15 ft tomorrow.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 6 PM Sun...Dangerous marine conditions continue into Tuesday, but gradually improve from south to north with winds easing down to 15-20 kts with gusts up around 20-25 kts by Tue morning and veering to a SE and eventually SW direction while seas fall down to 5-8 ft along our coastal waters. Winds and seas fall even further Wed with winds remaining S'rly at 10-15 kts while seas along our coastal waters finally lower down to 3-5 ft by Wed morning. This should then end SCA criteria across all waters with more benign boating conditions forecast for Thurs. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through the period with locally enhanced winds and seas possible within the strongest storms that may develop.

HYDROLOGY
As of 6 PM Sun...Widespread heavy rain is expected late tomorrow through Tuesday as low pressure develops to our south and pushes northward. Abundant tropical moisture with this system will lead to extremely heavy rainfall rates over areas that have become saturated over the last week. Where the heaviest rainfall sets up remains uncertain due to larger than average spread in model guidance, but confidence in heaviest rainfall remains highest along and south of US 70 where storm total 4-6 inches of rain is possible. A more widespread 2-4 inches is forecast for the rest of ENC.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
As of 6 PM Sun...There will be potential for coastal flooding of up to 1-3 ft AGL tonight and tomorrow as winds strengthen in association with a developing low pressure system to our south over the Gulf Stream which has the potential to become a Tropical Storm in that time frame. Additionally, coastal flooding may be worsened due to the astronomically high tide cycle we are entering.

Ahead of this system, strong ENE/E winds will buildup water along the SE portion of the Pamlico Sound as well as the Neuse, Bay, and Pamlico Rivers. Oceanside, high water levels in addition to strong wave run up will likely produce ocean overwash along NC 12 on the Outer Banks at times of high tide.

Additionally with this system we can expect a high threat of rip currents, rough and dangerous surf/shore break, and beach erosion.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ195-196-199.
Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT Monday through Tuesday afternoon for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-203>205.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ080-094- 194>196-199.
Flood Watch from 5 AM EDT Monday through Tuesday morning for NCZ090>092-094-193>196-198-199.
High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ195-196-199- 203>205.
Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Monday through Monday evening for NCZ195-196-199-203>205.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT Monday for NCZ203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ131-135>137- 230-231.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150-152.
Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ154-156-158.