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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 844 Pm Pst Sun Dec 10 2023
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 10 seconds.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 10 seconds.
Mon night..W winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 8 seconds.
Tue..Winds variable 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming N 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt early, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft.

PZZ600 844 Pm Pst Sun Dec 10 2023
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park...at 03z or 7 pm pst, a 1025 mb was located 700 nm west of los angeles, and a 1011 mb low was located south of arizona.

FXUS66 KLOX 110420 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 820 PM PST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
10/129 PM.

Dry conditions are expected through at least the middle of the week with above normal high temperatures. The dry air, however, will allow colder than normal overnight lows in wind sheltered areas. Moderate Santa Ana winds may return Wednesday.

.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...10/732 PM.

***UPDATE***

Offshore flow weakened today with the LAX to DAG gradient currently at -5.1, which is about 2 mb less offshore than this time yesterday. The combination of weakening offshore flow and the lack of upper level support caused the NE winds to decrease below advisory levels early this afternoon, which in turn resulted in less cold air advection into the region. High temperatures warmed 4 to 8 degrees across most of the area. Relative humidities have improved compared to yesterday, but will continue to be dry with values between 12-25% through tomorrow.

Otherwise, fairly benign weather is expected through tomorrow with high clouds continuing across the area. These high clouds will not allow as much radiational cooling tonight with 40s-50s being common, except for the mountains and interior areas lowering into 30s. High temperatures tomorrow will generally be a few degrees cooler due to the high clouds and weakening offshore flow. The two exceptions will be for the LA County mountains/Antelope Valley which will no longer have cold air advection, as well as Santa Barbara County which will also see a few degrees of warming due an increase in offshore flow. High temperatures will be 6-12 degrees above normal tomorrow.

Forecast is in shape and no updates are planned.

***From Previous Discussion***

Models continue to indicate an inside slider trough dropping south through NV later Tuesday with a return to light to moderate offshore flow returning. However, pressure gradients remain on the lighter side, especially from the deterministic runs. The NAEFS solutions are a little stronger but still only in the -4 to -5 range. In addition, EPS solutions show very little wind at the usual windier spots so at this time the chances for any impactful northeast winds are on the lower side. Models do show some northeast flow aloft but peaking at only around 30kt at 850mb. So despite the favorable upper air pattern this next offshore event appears like it will be lighter and much less impactful than this most recent event. Humidities will remain on the lower side so with no marine layer and good radiational cooling overnight look for chilly morning temps, especially in the interior valleys.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...10/210 PM.

Light to moderate offshore flow expected to continue through next Sunday but without any upper support winds are expected to be below advisory levels. High pressure will follow the inside slider bringing warmer temperatures to the region with low humidities.
Highs will be 5-10 above normal through the period, though overnight lows will be chilly, especially in wind protected locations.

The next storm system on the horizon looks to be another tricky cut off low situation. Models at one time had been indicating a trough with decent moisture moving through the area over next weekend but more recent ensemble solutions have trended much slower with the arrival as ridging develops over western North America and stalls the eastward propagation of the trough near 140w, or roughly 1000nm west of Pt Conception. The official NBM forecast still has 15-30 pops across the area next Sunday but that's just factoring in some previous faster moving model solutions that are now much less in favor. So while rain chances from this system still look good, the much more likely arrival day now is into the following week, between Monday and Wednesday (Dec 18-20).

AVIATION
11/0035Z.

At 0000Z at KLAX, there was no marine inversion or marine layer.

High confidence in VFR TAFs. The wind issues have dissipated.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF. High confidence that any east wind component will be below 6 kt.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

MARINE
10/814 PM.

For the Outer Waters, NW winds are expected to increase to Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels across the outer waters north of the Channel Islands (PZZ670/PZZ673) tonight through late Mon night.
By Mon afternoon, winds will expand across the entire outer waters, and continue through at least late Mon night. Winds will start to decrease on Tue, with a 30% chance of SCA level winds lingering across north of Point Sal (PZZ670) into Tue morning, and 60-70% of SCA winds lingering from Pt. Conception to San Nicolas Island (PZZ673/PZZ676) through Tue evening. Otherwise, SCA conds are not expected thru Thu.

For the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level NW winds during the afternoon/evening hours Mon and Tue.
Otherwise, SCA conds are not expected thru Thu.

For the inner waters S of Pt. Conception, there is a 30% chance of SCA level NE winds nearshore from Ventura to Malibu Wed morning and again Wed night into Thu morning. Otherwise, SCA conds are not expected thru Thu.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Tuesday for zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Monday to 3 AM PST Tuesday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

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Santa Barbara
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Sun -- 12:33 AM PST     2.00 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:36 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:54 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:04 AM PST     5.93 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:20 PM PST     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:00 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:48 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:42 PM PST     3.50 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Santa Barbara, California, Tide feet

Santa Barbara
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:46 AM PST     1.90 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:36 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:54 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:11 AM PST     5.82 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:24 PM PST     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:00 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:48 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:44 PM PST     3.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Santa Barbara, California (2), Tide feet

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