Saturday, January18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Vandemere, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 5:23PM Saturday January 18, 2020 8:57 AM EST (13:57 UTC) Moonrise 1:10AMMoonset 12:31PM Illumination 41% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ137 NEuse And Bay Rivers- 630 Am Est Sat Jan 18 2020
Today..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se late. Waves light chop. A slight chance of showers late.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves choppy. A chance of showers.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves a moderate chop, increasing to choppy after midnight.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves a moderate chop, increasing to choppy after midnight.
Tue..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves choppy.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vandemere, NC
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location: 35.17, -76.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 181138 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 638 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

SYNOPSIS. Strong ridging remains in control today. A strong cold front will approach from the west tonight, crossing the area early Sunday. Cold high pressure then dominates the region for most of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 630 AM Sat . No significant changes with the early morning update. Shower activity along a coastal trough remains well offshore, with mid-to-upper level clouds streaming across much of the area, resulting in a continued non-diurnal warming trend.

Ridging aloft will gradually break down through the day today, with modest height falls prompting widespread cirrus coverage. In the low levels, high pressure ridging in from the north will slide well east of the area through the day, with NE to E flow in the morning becoming increasingly S through the afternoon. A weak coastal trough could prompt the development of showers over the coastal waters, occasionally sliding back over the coast through early afternoon, but overall dry conditions are expected across the area. Later in the afternoon, POPs begin to trend up as low level moisture transport increases. However, lack of significant lifting mechanism keeps POPs slight chance for most to low end chance along the immediate coast in the hours leading up to sunset. Highs will range from near normal along the Albemarle- Pamlico Peninsula where ridging will keep weak CAA in place, to several degrees above normal south of US Hwy 264 where WAA begins by mid-afternoon.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/. As of 3 AM Sat . Height falls aloft continue tonight as broad troughing overspreads the eastern US. At the surface, high pressure will remain anchored well offshore as low pressure deepens over the Great Lakes. This will prompt a strengthening, 50+kt LLJ to work over the area in the evening, bringing gusty S to SW winds and very efficient low level moisture transport. Showers are likely across most of the area with the theta-e surge late this evening into early Sunday morning. However, without upper level support for significant lift and in the absence of any notable instability, rain rates will mostly be light, and QPF is low (<.1 in for most) despite scattered to widespread shower coverage through much of the night. The band of greatest moisture will work offshore within several hours of sunrise as the cold front associated with the aforementioned low begins to work into the area from the west, and POPs trend downward at the end of the period.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 245 AM Sat . A cold front will push thru Sunday followed by high pres for much of the work week.

Sunday and Sunday night . Cold front will cross the region Sunday. Some sct light shra early coast will end by late morn with decreasing clouds form W to E. Cold advection doesn't kick in til late and expect mild highs mainly in upr 50s to lower 60s. Much colder and drier air will spread in Sunday night with lows dropping into the 25 to 30 dgr range inland and low/mid 30s beaches.

Monday through Wed . Arctic high pressure will grad build E thru mid week. Mdls cont to show short wave crossing Tue but moisture expected to remain mainly well offshore and cont only slight pops for portions of OBX Tue into Tue night. Expect mclr skies inland thru period with cold highs in the lowers 40s Mon and Tue warming a bit to mid/upr 40s Wed. Lows will be in the 20s inland to mainly 30s beaches.

Thu thru Fri . Grad warming this period as high pres crests over the region Thu with building hgts aloft. The high will then slide offshore Fri with srly winds developing. Clouds will be increasing Fri and may see small chc of shra late. Highs will be in the 50s Thu then reach lower 60s most spots Fri.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Short Term /through Saturday Night/ . As of 630 AM Sat . VFR conditions today as high pressure ridges into the area. Mid clouds early this morning will linger through much of the day, with low level flow becoming increasingly southerly this afternoon, prompting the development of some lower clouds around 5kft or high. This evening, a strong 50+kt S to SWrly LLJ moves over eastern NC, bringing gusty winds, several hours of LLWS as surface flow is more southerly than 850 mb flow, and rapidly increasing low level moisture content. The chance for MVFR ceilings will begin to increase toward the end of the TAF period, with sub-MVFR possible at times in showers, but not expected to prevail as low level winds prompt persistent mixing.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/ . As of 245 AM Sat . Any linger sub VFR cigs early Sun will quickly dissipate as drier air spread in with VFR expected bulk of the day. VFR will dominate Mon thru Wed as cold dry air spreads in with high pres.

MARINE. Short Term /through Tonight/ . As of 330 AM Sat . A weak coastal trough will move close to the coast, bringing generally light and easterly flow this morning through early afternoon. Then, high pressure off the coast and low pressure crossing the Great Lakes will prompt the development of a strong SWrly LLJ that will move over the coastal waters this evening, resulting in rapidly deteriorating conditions. These stronger low level winds will readily mix to the surface across the relatively warmer waters near the Gulf Stream, with confidence lower in efficient mixing closer to the beaches and across the inshore waters. Have opted for a Gale Warning for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet tonight through Sunday morning, with the most consistent Gale conditions expected beyond 5-10 miles offshore. SCA has also been issued for the larger inshore sounds and the Alligator River, where frequent gusts to 25 kt are expected overnight, and SCA extended for coastal waters north of Oregon Inlet.

Marginally hazardous seas (4-6 ft) prevail across coastal waters today. Then, seas increase rapidly in accordance with the wind this evening, reaching 6-12+ ft by late evening, and remaining in that range through sunrise. Despite increasingly warm and moist air being advected across the coastal waters, sea fog is not expected to be an issue thanks to the strong winds overnight.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/ . As of 245 AM Sat . Poor boating expected most of this period. Gusty SW winds of 20 to 30 kts with higher gusts early Sunday will become NW 15 to 25 kts in aftn as cold front crosses. Seas of 6 to 11 ft at daybreak will subside to 5 to 7 ft late. NW winds 15 to 25 kt Sun night become N 15 to 20 kts Mon. Seas will slowly subside below 6 ft Mon aftn. Short wave crossing Tue will lead to low pres developing well offshore and combined with high pres to the W will lead to NNE winds increasing to 20 to 30 kts and seas building back to 5 to 7 ft. NNE winds will cont at 15 to 25 kts Tue night and Wed with seas 5 to 7 ft.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Sunday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Sunday for AMZ131-230-231. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Sunday for AMZ152-154-156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST Monday for AMZ150.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . CB SHORT TERM . CB LONG TERM . RF/BM AVIATION . RF/CB MARINE . RF/CB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 31 mi58 min 1034.9 hPa (-0.7)
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 38 mi58 min N 12 G 15 40°F 1034.8 hPa (-0.9)35°F
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 50 mi58 min 1034.4 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC14 mi2 hrsNNE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy43°F30°F60%1036 hPa
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC22 mi64 minNE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy36°F26°F67%1035.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNBT

Wind History from NBT (wind in knots)
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2 days agoNE11NE11NE10NE7NE9NE4NE6NE5NE3CalmE3CalmSW3CalmS3S4S6SW6SW6SW8SW7SW7SW6SW10

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:09 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:55 AM EST     2.03 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:35 AM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:31 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:14 PM EST     1.70 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:21 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:42 PM EST     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.51.921.91.61.10.60.2-0-00.20.61.11.51.71.61.410.50.1-0.2-0.2-0

Tide / Current Tables for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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North River Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:09 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:54 AM EST     1.74 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:57 AM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:31 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:13 PM EST     1.46 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:21 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 11:04 PM EST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.81.31.61.71.61.410.60.30-0.10.10.50.91.31.41.41.20.90.50.2-0.1-0.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.