Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hobucken, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 3:45 PM Thursday...A stalled front is currently draped just south of the NC/SC border and will lift north as a warm front tonight. As this boundary enters the FA, some isolated showers and thunderstorms may blossom with the best chance being offshore and along the coast but PoPs have been capped at slight chance. Lows will be in the mid-50s to low-60s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/
As of 4 PM Thursday...Guidance continues to trend drier for Friday, but residual moisture, instability, and multiple sources of lift could still support isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across ENC. In the morning, weak coastal troughing will be the main forcing mechanism to initiate any precipitation offshore and along the immediate coast. As we transition into the afternoon, additional showers and thunderstorms may form along the seabreeze as it moves into the coastal plain. Instability will be marginal (MLCAPE ~500 J/kg)
but a lack of shear and weak lapse rates should keep any convection sub-severe.

Highs will max out in the low-80s across the coastal plain and mid-70s along the coast.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 0330 Thursday...

Saturday...Yet another cold front is forecast to move through the area late Sat resulting in the threat for more widespread showers and storms. Highs warming into the low 80s Fri and a tick or two warmer ahead of the approaching front Saturday.

Sunday through Wednesday...Slightly cooler and drier air moves in as high pressure builds over the area from the N Sunday into early next week. Again NBM PoPs look to high for Sunday. Could see a lingering early morning shower, otherwise dry conditions should prevail. Will continue a dry weather forecast through mid next week though an isolated afternoon sea breeze shower or storm can't be completely ruled out. PoPs increase again on Wednesday with the approach of another series of fronts to cross the area later in the week. Highs Sunday will be in the low 70s, warming to the mid 70s Mon and low 80s Tue.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Friday Morning/...
As of 2 PM Thursday...VFR flight conditions are expected for the remainder of the day with light easterly winds and increasing cloud cover. Tonight, guidance has trended more pessimistic with the potential for fog and low stratus. All TAF sites have the potential to see at least MVFR CIGs and VIS, especially between 07-12Z. Crossover temperatures are forecast to be met at ISO, EWN, and OAJ, which are the terminals that also have the best chance at seeing an isolated light shower this afternoon. This would lean the forecast toward patchy fog, but the issue will be whether or not terminals are able to decouple. If we remain more mixed, then a low stratus event will be more likely. Probabilistic guidance gives all TAF sites a ~40-60% chance of MVFR CIGs and a ~25-40% chance of MVFR VIS.
Lower CIGs (4-5kft) will linger into the mid-morning hours, sticking around the longest east of Highway 17.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 0345 Thursday...

KEY MESSAGES

- TSRA and sub-VFR risk persists through Saturday

A series of weak frontal boundaries coupled with sufficient moisture and instability will result in a chance for isolated to widely scattered mainly afternoon showers and storms Fri with brief sub VFR conditions possible. A strong front will cross the region late Sat with more widespread showers and thunderstorms and a better chance for a period of sub VFR conditions.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Friday/...
As of 4:10 PM Thursday...Pleasant boating conditions will continue through Friday. Ongoing 10-15 kt northeasterly winds will become southeasterly by late tomorrow afternoon. Seas will generally be 2-4 ft with some 5 ft seas possible along the outer central waters.

LONG TERM /Friday night through Monday/...
As of 0400 Thursday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Small Craft conditions possible Saturday night and Sunday

High pressure builds in Thu with NE winds 10-15 kt veering to become SE around 10 kt by Fri morning. Sat ahead of the next cold front, winds become S to SW 10-15 kt then shift to NW to N 15 to 20 gusting to 25 kt Sat night. Sunday, post frontal Nerly surge works down the coast through Sunday morning as high pressure builds back in behind the cold front. Prefrontal wind forecast has increased showing potential for prefrontal SCA conditions as well. Seas are forecast 2-4 ft with some 5 footers across the outer central waters Thu through Sat.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.