Sunday, August18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hobucken, NC

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 7:54PM Sunday August 18, 2019 4:09 AM EDT (08:09 UTC) Moonrise 8:50PMMoonset 8:05AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 337 Am Edt Sun Aug 18 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 20 to 25 kt this afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers and tstms until late afternoon, then a chance of showers and tstms late.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the evening.
Mon..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hobucken CDP, NC
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location: 35.19, -76.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 180720
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
320 am edt Sun aug 18 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will track northeast across eastern nc today. High
pressure offshore will extend west into eastern north carolina
through mid week. A cold front will slowly approach the area
late this week and into next weekend.

Near term through today
As of 315 am Sunday... Complicated fluid forecast today with
developing low pressure currently located vicinity of CAPE fear.

The low is forecast to track northeast inland east of CAPE fear
early this morning moving through the pamlico sound before
exiting off of the northern outer banks by mid to late
afternoon. Main concern is the potential for heavy rains as the
systems passes through as pw values increase to around 2.5" and
region comes under the right entrance region of the upper jet
enhancing lift. Complicating the forecast is 1) potential for
deep convection over the gulfstream robbing moisture inflow into
eastern nc and limiting precipitation amounts and 2) potential
for the low to track just offshore which would really limit
heavy rain threat. Only the NAM is tracking the low just off of
the coast, while the rest of the models move the low just
inland. Therefore will follow consensus and favor a just inland
movement today. Gave some thought to issuing a flash flood watch
for portions of the immediate coast where 7-10 inches has
fallen during the past 7 days. Held off due to the expected
quick movement of the system across the area but still concerned
that some local flooding could occur in regions of frequent
downpours. Expecting widespread 1-1.5" amounts east of highway
17 with locally heavier amounts possible.

The rain should be mostly offshore by 19z with only a very
small risk of a brief shower or TSTM once the main rain area
moves out the area. Highs will be 85-90 degrees.

Short term tonight
As of 315 am Sunday... Westerly flow on back side of departing
low will dry out most of the area tonight with clearing skies
except for the immediate coast where the northern extent of the
deeper moisture will linger overnight resulting in more clouds
and very low chances for a shower or thunderstorm. Lows will be
in the low to mid 70s.

Long term Monday through Saturday
As of 315 am sun... Somewhat drier conditions are expected
through mid week as high pressure builds in from the east, with
precip chances becoming more scattered. Then, a slow moving cold
front will approach from the north late in the week, which
could lead to another period of unsettled weather from Friday
into next weekend.

Monday through Thursday... High pressure will build in through
the day from the western atlantic with just some scattered
showers and thunderstorms expected, likely forming along the sea
breeze and propagating inland. A bit more coverage is expected
Tuesday through Thursday with a weak lee trough forming over
central nc, and continued possible convective initiation along
the sea breeze each day. Very little wind shear will keep
convection disorganized.

High temps will be slightly above average through this period.

Hottest day is expected Monday, with highs reaching the low 90s
inland and the upper 80s along the coast. Very high humidity
levels will lead to heat indices 100 to 105 degrees Monday
afternoon as well. Tuesday through Thursday will be slightly
cooler with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s inland and the mid
to upper 80s along the coast. Very warm low temps will continue.

Friday and Saturday... The base of an upper level trough will
swing into the southern appalachians Friday, as a cold front
drops south through virginia. Precip chances will be increasing
Friday as storms fire along and south of the front in a hot and
humid airmass. Continued high chances of rain on Saturday as
well, though there is some uncertainty on how far south the
front travels before stalling. The latest GFS shows the front
pushing well south of the forecast area, while the latest ecmwf
stalls the front along the southern nc coast for most of the
weekend. Will look for more model consensus before
increasing decreasing pops from around 50% for this period. High
temps will be cooler with more cloud cover, remaining mostly in
the 80s.

Aviation 07z Sunday through Thursday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 315 am Sunday... SubVFR conditions including a period of
ifr conditions is expected through early to mid afternoon as an
area of showers and tstms moves across the area as low pressure
tracks just east of the TAF sites. ExpectingVFR conditions to
develop around 21z as drier westerly flow develops on backside
of the departing low. Could see patchy fog develop late tonight
but signal is guidance was too low at this time so will leave
out of the forecast for now.

Long term Monday through Thursday ...

as of 315 am sun... MostlyVFR conditions this week, with
scattered convection expected during the afternoons and
evenings. Patchy fog also possible in the early mornings with
high dewpoints and rather light winds.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 315 am Sunday... Sca's have now been issued for the sounds
and all of the coastal waters today into this evening as low
pressure is forecast to track just inland this morning, then
offshore of the northern outer banks by late afternoon. Shifting
mostly southerly winds 15-25 kt with higher gusts possible will
produce seas of 5-8 ft into early this evening, highest south
of oregon inlet. Winds are forecast to become westerly tonight
and diminish to 10-15 kt resulting in seas subsiding to 2-4 ft
late. There are still differences in track intensity of this low
resulting in significant differences in the wind direction and
wind speed forecasts with a period of low end gales not out of
the question. A blend of the operational models yielded the
current forecast of sustained sub gale winds but situation will
be monitored closely for possible upgrade. Widespread gusty
showers and thunderstorms are expected across the waters through
mid afternoon as the low passes through.

Long term Monday through Thursday ...

as of 315 am sun... Decent boating conditions are expected for
most of the week. Winds will be mostly SW 10-15 Monday through
Wednesday afternoon, before increasing to 15-20 kts Wednesday
evening through Thursday. Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft through
Wednesday, and then increase to 3-5 ft on Thursday.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for amz135.

Small craft advisory from noon today to 7 pm edt this evening
for amz131-150-230-231.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for amz152-
154.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for amz156-
158.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Jme
short term... Jme
long term... Sgk
aviation... Jme sgk
marine... Jme sgk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 35 mi52 min S 23 G 30 80°F 83°F1016.2 hPa
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 39 mi58 min SW 5.1 G 7 78°F 77°F1016.3 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 40 mi70 min S 28 G 33 78°F 1016.1 hPa (-0.4)75°F

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC12 mi2.2 hrsW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F75°F90%1016.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNKT

Wind History from NKT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6W6CalmNW4W4W3W5SW8CalmCalmSW7NE8CalmSE7CalmW3CalmS4CalmCalmW3CalmSW12
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1 day agoSE3S4S5S7S6S5SE3SE6NE4W12N10SE6E5SE4SE83SE4SE8SW3E4SE6S6SW11SW7
2 days agoSW3W4CalmCalmW4SW4SW3SW7SW46SW10SW10SW4SE3S4CalmCalmCalmS5S6SW6NW3W5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Sea Level, Core Sound, North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina
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Ocracoke Inlet
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:00 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:09 AM EDT     2.09 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:14 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:19 PM EDT     2.11 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.10.70.40.20.30.71.11.61.92.121.71.30.90.50.30.40.71.11.51.92.12.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.