Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hobucken, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 5:55PM Thursday February 20, 2020 11:03 PM EST (04:03 UTC) Moonrise 5:05AMMoonset 3:09PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 930 Pm Est Thu Feb 20 2020
.gale warning in effect through Friday evening...
Overnight..N winds 30 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Rain.
Fri..N winds 30 to 35 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Rain likely in the morning.
Fri night..N winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft in the morning, then 1 ft.
Sat night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft, then around 2 ft. Showers likely.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft, then 1 ft. A chance of showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hobucken CDP, NC
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location: 35.19, -76.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 210245 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 945 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure off of the southeast coast will deepen and lift northeast well offshore tonight and Friday. Cold high pressure will rebuild over the area for the weekend, before another area of low pressure impacts the area early to mid next week.

NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/. As of 945 PM Thu . Main change was to lower snow amounts a bit, but forecast remains the same with warning criteria snow expected in the WSW. RA/SN line slowly sinking south of a Kenansville to New Bern to Swan Quarter line per Dual Pol radar analysis. Sfc temps even where it is snowing are slow to drop to below freezing, so snow is not accumulting all that rapidly despite moderate rates. Have mentioned 3-5 inch accums where WSW is in effect, and a trace to around an inch closer to the coast where temps will be warmer in the WSY.

Prev discussion . As of 710 PM Thu . Update to add Duplin county to WSW, as mesoscale banding of heavy snow forecast to affect much of the county, with totals reaching 2 to 4 inches. Fcst mainly on track, and only tweaked to transition to snow earlier, as column has cooled to below freezing for most of the nrn coastal plain counties, and will transition from a wintry mix to mostly snow from west to east from there.

Prev discussion . As of 400 PM Thu . Precip shield has encompassed much of the CWA with a few scattered reports of sleet along the Hwy 264 corridor. Mesoanalysis continues to show a bullseye area for frontogenesis parked over that area. The deformation zone will work to concentrate areas of the heaviest precip throughout the event. The HRRR is initializing well, showing the deformation zone with the associated concentrated precip area over the northern counties and pivoting overnight to a more north-south orientation, likely positioning itself along Hwy 17. Highest snow amounts will likely occur north of Hwy 70 with 4-6 inches. Southern counties will still see some accumulations of 2-4 inches and less than 2 inches along the Crystal Coast.

As the event unfolds, we expect rain to begin changing over to mixed precip late afternoon/early evening NW along the Hwy 264 corridor, spreading SE to N. Craven, N. Onslow, and S. Beaufort counties by 03z. The transition time from rain to snow is expected to take place rather gradually, threatening a few hours of robust wintry mix that may cause hazardous travel. Snow will then begin taking over in our NW counties and pushing SE through midnight, afterward which snow will become the dominant ptype along Hwy 17 and west. Snowfall rates are expected to be relatively high, up to 0.5"/hr in and around the deformation zone, which will provide a moderate dendrite growth zone for a few hours. Snow will likely be heavy and wet when it reaches the surface, creating concerns for power outages, reduced visibilities, and slippery roads, particularly within mesoscale bands. As the coastal low moves out to sea, we can see snowfall beginning to taper off NW around 10-12z, eventually clearing out of much of the forecast area by 15z, with any lingering precip SE being predominantly rain.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/. As of 300 PM Thurs . Behind this system Friday skies will clear from west to east, but strong winds will continue. Strong CAA and snow cover will limit surface heating, and temperatures will struggle to reach past the upper 30s, with wind chills in the 20s all day.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 300 PM Thu . Fri night through Sunday . High pres will build in Fri night thru the weekend with dry weather. With expected snow pack and clear skies Fri night expect very cold temps with the normally colder inland areas dropping to around 20. Beaches will be a bit milder with upr 20s to lower 30s. Temps remain cold Sat with highs in the 40s to around 50 with plentiful sunshine. Temps moderate on Sunday as the high builds overhead and hgts aloft increase. Highs shld reach the upr 50s to lower 60s most spots.

Mon through Wednesday . Looks mild and unsettled this period as a complex frontal system approaches Mon and slowly pushes thru Tue night into Wed before dissipating. Plenty of moisture will spread N in advance of the front with likely pops Mon/Mon night and chc Tue and Wed. The front should cross the coast and dissipate Wed. Highs Mon will be mainly in the lower 60s with mid/upr 60s Tue and Wed.

Late next week. High pressure will build into the area behind the front with cooler highs in the 50s Thursday.

AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Short Term /through Friday morning/ . As of 7 PM Thu . Coastal low continues to strengthen this afternoon. Cigs have mainly dropped to IFR as change over to a wintry mix, bringing with it IFR conditions. Tonight into the overnight hours, precip will transition to all snow beginning NW and pushing SE, dropping visibilities down to 1 mile, or potentially less. Ceilings and visibilities will improve once the snow tapers off W to E Friday morning. Strong NNE winds will persist throughout the TAF period.

Long Term /Fri night Through Tuesday/ . As of 300 PM Thu . VFR conditions expected to prevail through the weekend as high pres builds across. Shra threat increases Mon and Tue ahead of approaching cold front with occasional sub VFR poss.

MARINE. Short Term /Tonight and Friday/ . As of 300 PM Thu . Dangerous boating expected through Fri as strong NNE winds develop today and cont tonight as low pres develops and deepens well to the SE. Cont Gale Warning for all but Pamlico River where we have SCA. Winds will increase to 30 to 40 kt with gusts to 45-50 kt over the warmer water tonight into Friday. These winds will lead to seas reaching to 9 to 14 ft tonight into Fri.

Long Term /Fri night through Tue/ . As of 300 PM Thu . Winds will slowly begin to decrease early Fri evening to sub Gale and especially Fri night to below 25 kt late as the low moves further offshore. Seas will remain dangerous early 8-14 ft subsiding to 5-9 ft early Sat. Winds become light Sat as the high builds close with seas subsiding to 4 to 6 ft late. Light winds cont Sunday with the high overhead . seas finally drop below SCA lvls Sun at 3 to 5 ft. The high moves off the coast Mon with front slowly approaching from the W. SSW winds will increase from 10 kt Mon to 15 to 20 kts Mon night and 20-25 kt Tue with seas 2-4 ft Mon building back to 4 to 7 ft Tue.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 300 PM Thu . NNE gale force winds are expected tonight into Friday, as an area of low pressure lifts east to northeastward well off the Carolina coast. These strong winds will lead to minor soundside water level rises for areas adjacent to the Southern Pamlico Sound, mainly Eastern Carteret including the Core Sound area, and areas along the lower Neuse River, as well as Ocracoke and Hatteras Island south of Buxton. Minor inundation 1-2 ft (agl) are expected with local amounts up to 3 ft possible Down-east Carteret, and a Coastal Flood Advisory conts for these areas. A High Surf Advisory was issued for the OBX from Cape Hatteras North this evening thru late Fri night for 8 ft+ waves in the surf zone.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for NCZ195-196- 199-203. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for NCZ198. Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Friday for NCZ029-044>047- 079>081-090>092-094-193-194. Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for NCZ196-203>205. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for NCZ194-196- 204-205. High Surf Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for NCZ203-205. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Friday for AMZ136. Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Friday for AMZ137. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Friday for AMZ135-150-152-154-156- 158. Gale Warning until 5 PM EST Friday for AMZ131-230-231.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . TL/CB/ML SHORT TERM . CB/ML LONG TERM . RF/JME AVIATION . JME/TL MARINE . RF/JME TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . MHX


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 35 mi52 min N 22 G 27 39°F 51°F1022.7 hPa
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 39 mi52 min NNE 31 G 37 42°F 47°F1021.8 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 40 mi64 min N 27 G 33 40°F 1022 hPa (-0.0)40°F

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC12 mi2.1 hrsN 19 G 283.00 miRain Fog/Mist and Breezy39°F37°F93%1023.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNKT

Wind History from NKT (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS5S3SW3SW3SW4W5W7NW7NW7N14--NE14N13NE13NE15NE16N10NE13NE10NE11NE12NE10NE14NE11
2 days agoNE6NE5NE7NE4N5N5N5N3N4NE3CalmCalmNW3NE7NW34CalmSE3SE5S5S4CalmCalmSW3

Tide / Current Tables for Sea Level, Core Sound, North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina
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Ocracoke Inlet
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:02 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:24 AM EST     1.93 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:44 AM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:08 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:39 PM EST     1.58 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:50 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 11:38 PM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.40.91.41.71.91.91.71.30.80.30.100.20.50.91.31.51.61.410.60.2-0.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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