Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Charlotte, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 8:09PM Monday August 19, 2019 4:47 PM EDT (20:47 UTC) Moonrise 9:37PMMoonset 9:19AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Charlotte, NC
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location: 35.21, -80.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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Fxus62 kgsp 191904
afdgsp
area forecast discussion
national weather service greenville-spartanburg sc
304 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019

Synopsis
An area of low pressure and elevated moisture will persist across
the western carolinas and northeast georgia through Wednesday. A
moist cold front will approach the region Thursday and become
stationary on Friday. The front will gradually settle south of the
area through the weekend as high pressure builds in from the north
and maintains cooler than normal temperatures.

Near term through Tuesday
As of 255 pm edt Monday: situated in between a ridge of
high pressure both to the west and east, as a few upper shortwaves
swing through overhead, an unsettled weather pattern has already
blossomed across the western carolinas and northeast georgia this
afternoon. With temperatures currently in the upper 80s lower 90s
and dewpoints in the lower 70s, latest mesoanalysis depicts sbcape
values of 2000-3500 j kg across the area, with plenty of dry air in
place at the mid levels. Thus, would not entirely rule out a few of
these storms becoming strong to severe before the end of the day,
with microbursts, as noted in previous discussions, as a
possibility. In addition, with the aforementioned temperatures and
dewpoints, though below heat advisory criteria, heat indices in the
mid to upper 90s outside the mountains will continue through this
evening.

Expect convection to linger into the evening hours, gradually waning
into tonight, though a few light showers overnight could not be
entirely ruled out. With the expectation of mid to high level clouds
overhead through the overnight hours as weak sfc low meanders north
into the area, expect min temperatures to remain above normal. Some
of the guidance fcst soundings continued to suggest fog development
towards daybreak on Tuesday, but confidence is fairly low ATTM given
anticipated cloud cover.

A similar pattern is expected on Tuesday, though the potential for
strong to severe storms will be slightly less. Temperatures will
remain just above normal, with heat indices in the low to mid 90s.

Short term Tuesday night through Thursday
As of 1:35 pm edt Monday: the short-term forecast picks up at 00z on
Wednesday with our region stuck between upper ridging to the west and
weaker upper ridging over the western atlantic. On wed, broad upper
trofing begins to dig down across the great lakes as the ridges amplify
on either side of us. On thurs, the upper trof persists over the great
lakes as heights fall over our area and upper-lvl flow strengthens
from the west. At the sfc, the bermuda high will continue to be the
main driver of our synoptic pattern thru most of the period, keeping
a moist, tropical airmass over the cwfa. On thurs, a moist cold front
will make its way southeastward from the ohio river valley and approach
the fcst area early thurs. The front is expected to move through the
cwfa late thurs and into early fri. No major changes were needed for
the sensible fcst with above climatology pops each day, with thurs
carrying likely pops across roughly the northern half of the cwfa.

Instability will be decent each day evening, with little in the way
of shear on Wed and a bit more on Thursday as the front approaches.

Instability will probably be limited to some extent on Thursday as
cloud cover is expected to increase thru the day. Temperatures will
remain just above normal.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
As of 115 pm edt Monday: an slow moving cold front will continue
pushing over the fa to begin the ext range. With the upper flow
becoming more diffuse the front will become broad and stall while
slowly drifting south thru fri. Good agreement is seen in the latest
guidance in developing a 1024 mb canadian high over the midwest
early Fri and traversing it east thru the period and this shud setup
a wedge scenario across the fa thru the weekend.

In the meantime... Good instability will be had along and ahead of
the sfc bndry which will instigate deep tstms. Deep layered
shear remains quite low however... So the mode will likely remain
pulsey with multicellular lines probable into the evening. The
latest GFS is the quickest with bringing in NE ly flow within
the sfc-h8 layer Fri afternoon at khky and then arnd 00z at
kgsp. The other op models are much slower with the wedge idea
development arnd 12z sat. So... Some uncertainty is had with the
onset time of more stable air and a general decrease in thunder
activity Fri evening.

The wedge does look to become mature by Sat afternoon tho and expect
atl and gom moisture adv to reinforce the pattern... Which could
linger into Mon per the gfs. MAX temps on Fri will be right arnd
normal... Then below normal temps by a couple cats or so over the
weekend. Pops will remain abv normal outside the mtns in isentropic
lift... With the wedge bndry likely become convectively active across
the extreme ERN to SW rn zones each afternoon Sat and sun.

Aviation 19z Monday through Saturday
At kclt and elsewhere:VFR prevails at all TAF sites this afternoon,
with convection already blossoming across the entire forecast area.

Thus, all TAF sites have prevailing vcsh vcts for the afternoon
hours, with tempo groups to account for possible short-lived flight
restrictions due to any shra tsra that moves over a TAF site. Expect
convection to wane into tonight, with lingering mid to high level
clouds and light winds. Latest fcst soundings continue to suggest
the potential for stratus, while some are hinting at fog
development. Confidence is low in regards to fog given the
anticipated cloud cover, but attm, could not entirely rule it out
towards daybreak.

Outlook: the potential for afternoon evening showers and
thunderstorms is expected to increase throughout the week, as a cold
front approaches from the NW into Thursday. Morning fog and low
stratus will be possible each day across the mountain valleys.

Otherwise, expectVFR.

Confidence table...

19-01z 01-07z 07-13z 13-18z
kclt high 100% high 100% high 100% high 100%
kgsp high 100% high 100% high 100% high 94%
kavl high 100% high 100% med 68% high 96%
khky high 100% high 100% high 93% high 100%
kgmu high 100% high 100% high 100% high 90%
kand high 100% high 100% high 92% high 90%
the percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 61 mi58 min ESE 5.1 G 9.9 92°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 80 mi28 min S 6 G 8.9 92°F 1015.2 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlotte, Charlotte / Douglas International Airport, NC6 mi56 minESE 13 G 2510.00 miThunderstorm92°F69°F47%1016.2 hPa
Concord Regional Airport, NC14 mi58 minW 77.00 miRain82°F71°F70%1017.9 hPa
Gastonia Municipal Airport, NC17 mi54 minSSW 410.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity88°F75°F66%1016.1 hPa
Monroe, Monroe Airport, NC17 mi55 minVar 310.00 miFair82°F66°F58%1016.9 hPa
Rock Hill, Rock Hill - York County Airport, SC20 mi54 minSSW 710.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity86°F69°F57%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCLT

Wind History from CLT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW4S12--NW5CalmS3CalmS3----Calm------CalmS5--4--4S6--5
1 day agoE6E7----NE7NE5E8SE5S3W3CalmNW3--CalmS4CalmCalm----W4SE44W4SW3
2 days ago--5--N4NE3--SE10SE9------CalmS7--CalmN3NE6--E6E3--SE5CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.