Tuesday, October27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Charlotte, NC

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:39AMSunset 6:34PM Tuesday October 27, 2020 11:19 AM EDT (15:19 UTC) Moonrise 4:04PMMoonset 2:53AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Charlotte, NC
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location: 35.21, -80.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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FXUS62 KGSP 271427 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1027 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. Warm and partly sunny conditions should return this afternoon under weak high pressure. Clouds return for Wednesday as tropical cyclone Zeta approaches the central Gulf coast. Rain chances increase Wednesday night as Zeta makes landfall and moves through the Deep South. Periods of heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected overnight Wednesday through Thursday as the remnants of Zeta pass over the region. Conditions improve for Friday with cool, dry weather expected through early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 1020 AM EDT Tuesday: Low stratus continues to fill in across the Piedmont and may not scatter out until this afternoon for many locals. With the reduced insolation due to the cloud cover, have trimmed by highs into the low to mid 70s for areas likely to see the clouds lift last. The light southwest winds and stratus has allowed dense fog to lift for most areas, although increasing 500 mb heights this morning has maintained patchy dense fog across some mountain valleys including near Asheville.

Otherwise, as the fog dissipates and lingering low stratus lifts within a few hours after sunrise, expect a pleasant day with a mixture of sunshine and clouds across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia as the wedge continues to dissipate and upper ridging builds in overhead. Downsloping flow will allow for quite the warm up today, with max temps progged to climb above normal and into the mid 70s, cooler across the mountains. Late overnight, cloud cover will begin to increase in coverage as deep tropical moisture infiltrates in from the GOM ahead of Zeta. Min temps will remain above normal.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. As of 330 AM Tuesday: As tropical cyclone Zeta lifts north over the central GoMex, a weak stationary boundary over the southern Appalachians, extending southwest into the Lower Mississippi River Valley, will begin to lift north as a warm front Wednesday morning. Tropical moisture will begin to advect into Georgia around the periphery of high pressure moving offshore. PoPs will ramp up during the day on Wednesday in response to the warm front, though it appears the best forcing and rainfall amounts will set up to our west. Therefore, Wednesday rainfall should pose no concerns. With the warm front lifting north and increasing thicknesses, high temperatures should remain 5-7 degrees above normal despite increasing cloud cover.

Zeta makes landfall over the central Gulf coast early Wednesday night yet there remains some disagreement within the guidance about the orientation and strength of low-level upslope flow over our area. Overall, we lack the classic signal of strong low-level southerly flow necessary to support significant precip accumulations ahead of a tropical cyclone. The best upper diffluence is due north of Zeta in response to the anomalous upper low over the southern Plains and as such the best rainfall response is also to our west. This pattern would thankfully work to reduce the priming effect we often see in the favored areas of the southern mountains in advance of a Gulf Coast cyclone and limit storm-total accumulations.

As Zeta moves across Alabama overnight Wednesday and approaches Georgia by Thursday morning, a brief period of better upslope forcing may set up ahead of the low across the southern mountains, though precip rates should be of minimal concern. The NHC track is well placed within a tightening spread of guidance, increasing the likelihood that Zeta will pass over or just to the west of the southern Appalachians Thursday morning into the early afternoon as it begins to undergo extratropical transition. Such a track keeps us within the favorable sector of the storm for heavy rainfall as it passes, as well as maintains a non-zero risk for a few storms capable of damaging winds Thursday afternoon. As Zeta passes by, a slug of tropical moisture (2"+ PWs, or near climo maxes) will accompany the storm. As we've previously noted, antecedent conditions and above-normal streamflows support excessive runoff and near bankfull stream response, even though the speed of the storm will work to limit accumulations. Isolated to widely scattered nuisance flooding by Thursday afternoon appears to be the main hydro threat from this storm especially along and near the Blue Ridge Escarpment, with one or two instances of more notable flash flooding possible. Storm-total accumulations of 1-3", especially from the Foothills west, appear to be on track, with isolated 3-4" still possible along the favored ridgetops of the southern mountains. Expect lower accums, more on the order of 0.50-2", for the Piedmont.

Model guidance is coming into some agreement that a wedge of 300-700 J/kg of SBCAPE will accompany the eastern quadrants of Zeta as it surges NE and combined with 40-60kts of bulk shear we will continue to advertise a non-zero damaging wind threat from isolated storms, primarily over the lower Piedmont south of I-85. The NAM, with its slower storm motion, may best synchronize Zeta's shear and forcing with peak heating. Furthermore, the NAM tries to develop showers ahead of the cold front which is quickly following behind Zeta. Uncertainty remains regarding peak wind gusts associated with Zeta for Thursday as well. While the storm should be undergoing rapid weakening below tropical-storm strength it may also be undergoing extratropical transition. Therefore, we will have to monitor for a gradient wind concern, especially over the mountains for Thursday, which may warrant an Advisory if our confidence increases in subsequent forecast packages.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 330 AM Tuesday: By Friday morning, Zeta will be a distant memory with its remnants well offshore. The once anomalous upper low will be passing overhead as it is absorbed into a potent shortwave trough. Forcing and instability associated with the trough axis and steep lapse rates aloft will work with residual moisture to maintain a chance PoP across western North Carolina into the morning hours, but this will quickly dissipate as the trough axis slides east. As high pressure builds over the Great Lakes, the resultant pressure gradient with the offshore low will result in a brief period of northwest-flow showers over the central and northern mountains, which should fully dissipate by late Friday afternoon as strong high pressure builds into the Northeast. CAA will be stronger over the mountains on Friday, so expect highs to be a few degrees below normal there, but near normal to the east.

By Friday night CAA is in full force over the forecast area with low temperatures returning to near normal after being well-above normal Friday morning. The high pressure source will likely be transient and quickly slide offshore on Saturday as a developing longwave trough digs into the northern Plains. Nevertheless, the pattern supports high temperatures 6-10 degrees below normal on Saturday and Sunday and light winds will support patchy frost in the mountains both mornings as temps dip into the middle to upper 30s.

The progressive pattern brings a cold front to our doorstep on Sunday with enough moisture to possibly support a slight chance of showers, though it's too far out to have confidence in this. Another strong (>1030mb) high approaches from the west for Monday behind the trough and settles over the Tennessee Valley by Tuesday morning, keeping us dry and cool with temperatures 3-5 degrees below normal. With high pressure overhead, expect a more widespread frost threat over western North Carolina by Tuesday morning.

AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. At KCLT and elsewhere: A mixture of VFR/MVFR/IFR/LIFR prevails at the TAF sites this morning due to fog and low cigs. A dense fog advisory which includes KCLT will continue through 13Z. With fog expected to lift and dissipate within a few hours of daybreak, expect improving conditions to VFR between 14Z and 16Z giving way to mid to high level clouds SCT to BKN in nature for today and tonight. Overnight, low cigs and fog will allow for flight restrictions to return as moisture begins to infiltrate in ahead of Zeta. Winds will remain light through the valid TAF period.

Outlook: Flight restrictions return Wednesday as the remnants of Zeta bring widespread rain low cigs/vsbys to the area with the most significant impacts anticipated on Thursday. Conditions will improve at the end of the week.

Confidence Table .

14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-12Z KCLT High 84% High 94% High 94% Med 75% KGSP High 84% High 100% High 93% Med 78% KAVL High 88% High 100% High 95% Med 75% KHKY High 87% High 100% High 97% Med 76% KGMU High 87% High 100% High 95% High 83% KAND High 85% High 100% High 98% High 89%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. NC . None. SC . None.

SYNOPSIS . JMP NEAR TERM . Munroe/SGL SHORT TERM . JMP LONG TERM . JMP AVIATION . SGL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 61 mi50 min Calm G 1.9 64°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 80 mi60 min Calm G 4.1 65°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlotte, Charlotte / Douglas International Airport, NC6 mi28 minWSW 59.00 miOvercast64°F62°F93%1023.3 hPa
Concord Regional Airport, NC14 mi28 minN 03.00 miFog/Mist63°F62°F100%1024.4 hPa
Gastonia Municipal Airport, NC17 mi26 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist64°F61°F90%1023.1 hPa
Monroe, Monroe Airport, NC17 mi27 minSSW 58.00 miOvercast64°F64°F100%1024 hPa
Rock Hill, Rock Hill - York County Airport, SC20 mi26 minWSW 49.00 miOvercast64°F62°F93%1023.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCLT

Wind History from CLT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3Calm3SE5S3CalmSW5SW3S3CalmCalmS3S3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3S3S3CalmSW4SW5
1 day agoE7NE12NE9NE11NE9N7N10NE8
G17
N10NE8N6N7N10NE9N10N8N7N5N6NE5NE6N6N4NE3
2 days agoW4SW6S7SW74W5S4S7S5S6S3S4S5S7S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmNE3SE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.