Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Charlotte, NC

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 330 AM EST Friday: A shortwave residing within a split flow regime across the East Coast will slide across the CFWA by the daytime period today. At the same time, surface high pressure will control the sensible weather through the forecast period. Weak northwest flow has developed with shallow moisture residing in the low-levels and allowing for the upslope component to activate stratocu over the favorable spots along the TN/NC border. Indications of this is already evident on NT Microphysics imagery and the potential for precip is evident on radar as reflectivity is ongoing and should continue through the afternoon. Cloud top temperatures of -12 to -18C suggests that ice nucleation is active. In this case, expect for flurries to light snow showers to continue through the afternoon with little accumulation expected before dry air entrainment ends all upslope precip.

The shortwave axis will slip through the CFWA from west to east during the daytime period and should allow for enough forcing to promote clouds to develop over the rest of the CFWA at peak heating and continue to roam the sky through sunset before the shortwave moves east of the CFWA and surface high sets up shop over the central and southern Appalachians as the flow aloft flattens out by the end of the period. Temperatures right now are 10-15 degrees below normal as mostly clear skies prevail over the rest of the CFWA. Afternoon highs will be slightly warmer as the airmass gradually modifies, but values remain ~10 degrees below normal. Overnight lows Friday will continue to run 10-15 degrees below normal as decent radiational cooling conditions prevail and allow for temperatures to drop at a relatively fast pace once the clouds scour out after sunset. The one caveat in the forecast is whether or not the boundary layer can fully decouple overnight Friday, which may not allow temperatures to fully drop to their potential for overnight lows. Either way, another cold night will be in store for the CFWA.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 141 AM Friday: Our welcomed quiet/fair weather period should extend through most of the weekend courtesy of weakening high pressure. We should remain more-or-less under the confluent nearly-zonal flow aloft downstream of the split in the upper flow over western North America. Even though the high pressure air mass overhead Saturday morning slowly moves southeast and weakens through Sunday, the overall SW to W flow aloft should allow for the expected gradual warming of temps back toward normal, which is the big takeaway for this period. We probably won't make it there Saturday, falling short by about five degrees, but Sunday looks right around normal, if not a few degrees above, and won't that be nice? A weak sfc front will most likely lay out on the west side of the mtns late in the day.

Meanwhile, a typical weak ill-defined and difficult-to-time srn stream wave will be approaching from the west on Sunday. There remains much uncertainty as to the path of the weak wave and when if any precip would spread in from the west starting Sunday night. The concern, as usual, is the onset time and how that might play with the thermal structure across the region. It is worth noting that none of the guidance has precip arriving before midnight Sunday night, and over half of the GEFS ensemble holds off until after 12Z Monday or never brings precip across the fcst area. Allowing for arrival before daybreak Monday west of I-26 would mean a chance of wintry precip-types at onset and there is no consensus yet, other than to say fcst soundings from the GEFS support more of a rain/wet snow scenario because of a lack of a prominent warm nose. Temps would warm steadily through the morning with warm advection and no cold air damming wedge, so precip would change over to rain across the mtn valleys and I-85 corridor fairly quickly. Again, that is IF it precipitates at all. The operational GFS has been fairly consistent with bringing the limited light precip across the region on Monday, while the op ECMWF and Canadian maintain a more southerly track which takes the bulk of the precip to our south. The lack of consensus limits the precip probs to the 20/30 range and the QPF to around a tenth of an inch or less, so even if some locations over the mtns/foothills stay with something other than rain into the morning, amounts would not get near Advisory level. The precip, such as it is, would move out in the afternoon and temps would still get up right around normal.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 321 AM Friday: We are reasonably confident that Monday night and Tuesday will be quiet in the wake of a weak system, as high pressure moves across the Southeast. Temps should continue to warm, perhaps five degrees above normal or more. The rest of the forecast continues to suffer from a lack of confidence because of the split flow pattern that will continue to affect our region through the remainder of the week. There could be a system that moves through the confluent flow aloft at some point between Wednesday and Friday...or not. For example, the operational GFS brings the next system over the region on Wednesday, but the support is lacking in the GEFS and does not agree with the other models that keep us dry. Looking closer at the GEFS, it still appears to be all over the place in terms of timing of this system, or if there will even be a system. The model blend leaves us with an unsatisfying low-end precip prob from Wednesday night onward, but it could just as easily end up with no precip at all, so you would be perfectly within your right to ignore it. Temps are expected to be above normal for Wednesday into Thursday, with a cool down back toward normal late in the week.

AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the forecast period. Streaming high clouds oriented from the southwest to northeast continue to stream overhead, mainly overlaying the Upstate terminals and KCLT. These high clouds are expected to clear out of the area before daybreak. Low VFR stratocu have developed over the NC/TN border and should break containment over KAVL after daybreak with 035-050 SCT/BKN cigs. This cloud deck will likely stick around through the end of the forecast period, while gradually scattering after 00Z Saturday. More clouds will overspread the rest of the area as 050-060 SCT/BKN cigs will be in place during peak heating before scattering out after sunset. Light and variable winds are expected tonight through daybreak before winds pick up a west-southwesterly component (5-10 kts), while KAVL maintains a northwesterly direction. Sporadic low end gusts can't be ruled out during the afternoon. High pressure centers over the region Friday night, leading to light and variable winds with mostly clear skies with the exception of some lingering stratocu in KAVL.

Outlook: VFR conditions prevail as broad high pressure lingers over the area through the weekend. A frontal system may bring restrictions and light precipitation to the area Sunday night/Monday, with drying returning Tuesday.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.