Sunrise 6:34 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 11:14 PM   Moonset 7:41 AM

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FXUS62 KGSP 270522 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 122 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak warm front will lift north of our area this evening. After that, we can expect a warming trend through the weekend and into next week as high pressure takes over. A weak cold front is expected to approach from the northwest on Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
100 AM Update...Current mesoanalysis and micro-Sat show low to mid level clouds hanging tough this morning along and east of I-26.
Expect these clouds to persist for the most part overnight, while widespread Ci rounds a h5 ridge to the west. Could see some dense fog across the srn NC mtn river valleys this morning, but will be close depending on the amt and thickness of clouds traversing the area possibly limiting cooling.

Otherwise, 1030+ mb surface high pressure over New England is expected to ooze slowly south through the period...and is forecast to be centered a couple hundred miles off the upper Mid-Atlantic coast by this evening. This movement of the parent high into a less favorable location will result in gradual cessation of northeast low level flow and modification of weak hybrid cold air damming regime/thinning of cloud cover by the afternoon. As such, todays's max temps are expected to be significantly warmer than yesterday...actually topping out very close to climo.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 1235 PM EDT Friday: We will continue to warm up through the latter half of the weekend with deep layered ridging lingering atop the SE CONUS. The atmosphere is expected to remain suppressed, as piedmont temperatures warm to near 80 in spots. To start off the work week, with only subtle changes expected in the mean ridge positioning, it looks like another quiet wx day on Monday.
Coincident with the warming flow around Bermuda high pressure max temperatures will average around 5 deg F above Sunday's readings.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 100 PM EDT Friday: Southern plains energy supporting a weakly forced cool front will eject toward the cwfa on Tuesday. Forecast model blends and ensembles maintain a decent response as this feature shears across the region, likely being able to aid in the development of numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms in the mountains, with increasingly more limited deep convective cvrg by the time forcing makes it to the piedmont.

The pattern keeps a progressive look for the rest of the week and the most notable feature is the llvl ridge of very warm air with does not get displaced, so we expect lower elevation daily maximums to reach well into the 80s through next Friday. In the wake of Tuesday's weak s/wv passage, there may be a thunderstorm chance minima on Wednesday but rising back to more solid chances by the end of the period as broad frontal zone nears.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: MVFR CIGs continue at KAVL this morning thru daybreak, possibly lingering till noon. Lowering VSBY to MVFR is also possible at KAVL arnd daybreak for a couple hrs. KHKY could see MVFR CIGs develop arnd daybreak persisting thru the morning hours before lifting to VFR. Otherwise, expect low to mid level VFR CIGs elsewhere into the late afternoon/evening. Winds become and remain more se/ly with a limited gust potential today as a strong sfc high centers and broadens off the midAtl coast.

Outlook: Drying is expected Sunday/Monday. A frontal system could bring a round of showers and storms to the area Tuesday, with more of a potential for isolated/scattered diurnal convection on Wed.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

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