SHORT TERM
Tonight through Sunday.

Moisture will continue to decrease tonight into Saturday as an upper level shortwave pushes through the region and shifts the flow to a dry west or southwesterly direction. By Saturday morning, the probability for over 1.00 inch PWAT is below 20% areawide. This dry air will stick around through the weekend as PWATs drop to 30%-50% of normal for this time of the year. No precipitation chances are in the forecast for any locations through Sunday.

Breezy southwest winds are expected this weekend as the pressure gradient increases with the passing upper level system. Saturday will be the windiest day with widespread gusts of 20-30 MPH, especially through that typical southwesterly wind belt from Barstow, CA through Las Vegas, NV through Colorado City, AZ. The probability for impactful winds over 40 MPH is low (20% or less), however fire danger will increase as there will be significant dry air entrenched over the region. The highest risk for wildfire spread will be in Arizona Strip where winds over 20 MPH will combine with low relative humidity, along with recent fire starts which may compound issues. In southern Mohave County winds may not be as strong but they will still be elevated and the risk for fire starts will be high because of dry conditions and the amount of recreation that goes on in the area over the weekends. Issued a Red Flag Warning for much of MOhave County for Saturday due to the overall heightened risk and at least near-criteria conditions. Elsewhere, anyone with outdoor plans that would involve activities that increase fire starts like camping or traveling with chains on cars should use caution. Winds on Sunday will not be as strong as Saturday as the upper level system begins to move away from the area, with gusts across the region topping out at 20-25 MPH.

As the trough moves through the Great Basin region over the weekend, high pressure will be knocked down and the strongest heights will be pushed out of the area. This will result in cooler temperatures as temperatures fall to near normal for the first time in a while by Sunday. Las Vegas has observed 36 consecutive days of temperatures over 105 degrees as of yesterday. The previous record was 25 days in 2017. The current forecast calls for a high temperature of 104 on Sunday, which will end the streak. Latest NBM probabilities show a 71% chance of Las Vegas reaching 105 or higher, with the deterministic NBM on the cooler side of the box-and-whiskers for the week. If Las Vegas reaches or exceeds 105 on Sunday, there will not be another opportunity to break this streak through the remainder of the forecast period.

LONG TERM
Monday through Friday.

Period begins with a trough across the Pacific Northwest that will maintain a southwest flow over the southern Great Basin and Mojave Desert. This will keep the area dry along with seasonable temperatures.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, the trough will begin to fill/weaken allowing ridge which had been suppressed over the southern High Plains to begin expanding westward. This will allow temperatures to heat back up above normal along with increasing thunderstorm chances returning to northwest Arizona Wednesday/Thursday, and potentially a few hi-based storms west of the Colorado River over the higher terrain of the Mojave National Preserve and Clark County mountains.

AVIATION
For Harry Reid...Southwest winds with occasional gusts to 25kts can be expected this afternoon and again on Saturday afternoon. Winds will diminish slightly overnight tonight, but a few gusts to 20kts will remain possible. Any afternoon convection today will be limited to the Mormon Mesa and Peach Springs corridors, and no storms are forecast on Saturday. Smoke from fires over southern California will also move across the area today and Saturday. While no significant reduction in surface visibilities is expected, slantwise visibilities may fall below 7NM at times.
Otherwise, no operationally significant cloud cover is expected through Saturday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Only isolated areas of convection are forecast this afternoon and evening, mainly over northwest Arizona. Southwest- to- west winds will increase across the Mohave Desert this afternoon, with gusts to 25kts possible in the Vegas Valley and 30kts near KDAG. Winds in the Colorado River Valley will generally be southerly, around 25kts this afternoon. Near KBIH, light southerly winds will turn westerly by late afternoon. Smoke from fires over southern California will also move across the area today and Saturday. While no significant reduction in surface visibilities is expected, slantwise visibilities may fall below 7NM at times over southern Nevada and eastern California.
Otherwise, no operationally significant cloud cover is expected through Saturday.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.