Monday, August19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Frisco, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 7:52PM Monday August 19, 2019 4:42 PM EDT (20:42 UTC) Moonrise 9:15PMMoonset 8:57AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ154 S Of Cape Hatteras To Ocracoke Inlet Nc Out 20 Nm Including The Monitor National Marine Sanctuary- 336 Pm Edt Mon Aug 19 2019
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Isolated showers and tstms after midnight.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Isolated showers and tstms in the morning.
Tue night..SW winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 8 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Dominant period 10 seconds, decreasing to 5 seconds in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the evening.
Thu..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas around 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Frisco, NC
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location: 35.22, -75.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 191947
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
347 pm edt Mon aug 19 2019

Synopsis
High pressure offshore will extend west into eastern north carolina
through mid week as a weak trough of low pressure lingers well inland.

A cold front will slowly approach the area late this week and
then cross the area next weekend.

Near term tonight
As of 330 pm mon... Scattered thunderstorms remain possible
through the afternoon and into early evening across mainly
inland areas. A few storms could become strong to severe, with
damaging winds being the primary threat given CAPE values near
or over 3000 j kg and dcape values of 1000-1500 j kg. Convective
activity will wane with the loss of solar insulation.

The area will remain between a well established bermuda ridge
offshore and developing troughing inland. Inland areas will
decouple shortly after sunset while coastal areas see persistent
light southwest winds as the high ridges strongly to our south.

Dry conditions are expected, though a stray shower or two over
the beaches cant be completely ruled out. Patchy fog is possible
for locations that decouple and can remain clear enough for
efficient radiational cooling - which is expected to occur
mainly inland. Lows will be several degrees above normal as a
warm and humid airmass remains in place.

Short term Tuesday
As of 330 pm mon... High pressure ridging into the area from the
east and south will dominate once again on Tuesday. Troughing
inland will be a bit stronger, and a bit more storm coverage
than today is possible. Still, it will overall be a similar day
to today with isolated to scattered convection away from the
beaches and the potential for a few strong storms producing
gusty winds. Temps will be a degree or two cooler than today,
owing primarily to increased cirrus coverage.

Long term Tuesday night through Monday
As of 245 am mon... High pressure will extend over the area
through Thursday with only scattered thunderstorms expected.

Then, a slow moving cold front will approach from the north late
in the week, and should eventually cross the area this weekend,
which would lead to another period of unsettled weather.

Tuesday night through Thursday... Scattered afternoon
thunderstorms are expected through Thursday with a weak lee
trough forming over central nc, and continued possible
convective initiation along the sea breeze each day. Very little
wind shear will keep convection disorganized. High temps will
be slightly above average through this period, with readings in
the low 90s inland and the mid to upper 80s along the coast.

Warm and humid nights will continue.

Friday through Sunday... The base of an upper level trough will
swing into the southern appalachians Friday, as a cold front
drops south through virginia. Precip chances will be increasing
Friday as storms fire along and south of the front in a hot and
humid airmass.

Thereafter guidance diverges, with the latest run of the gfs
aggressively pushing the front south of the region on Friday
before stalling (and then pushing back north late in the
weekend), whereas the latest ECMWF develops an area of low
pressure along the front Friday in southern va which halts the
progression of the front southward until later in the weekend
when the front moves eastward through the area. Will keep
generally 40-50% pops for Friday and the weekend, and hope for
some better model consensus in the next cycle.

Aviation 19z Monday through Saturday
Short term through Tuesday ...

as of 140 pm mon... High res models are suggesting more coverage
with scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, which have begun
to show up on radar. Any storms would produce brief sub-VFR
conditions. Convective activity will diminish after sunset.

Overnight fog is once again possible early Tue morning, given
the similar airmass.

Long term Tuesday night through Friday ...

as of 255 am mon... MostlyVFR conditions this week, with
scattered convection expected during the afternoons and
evenings. Patchy fog also possible in the early mornings with
high dewpoints and rather light winds.

Marine
Short term through Tuesday ...

as of 330 pm mon... Bermuda high pressure ridging south of the
area will remain in control. Light to moderate southeast winds
prevail, though winds may occasionally become more west-
southwest as the strength of the ridging to the south subtly
varies. Seas around 2-4 ft prevail in mainly locally generated
windswell.

Long term Tuesday night through Friday ...

as of 255 am mon... Decent boating conditions are expected for
most of the upcoming week. Winds will be mostly SW 10-15
through Wednesday afternoon, before increasing to ssw 15-20 kts
Wednesday evening through Friday morning. Seas will be 2-4 ft
through Wednesday, and then increase to 3-5 ft early Wednesday
night. Conditions Wednesday night through Thursday night will
likely be close to small craft over most of the coastal waters,
with wind gusts near 25 kts and seas around 5 feet.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Cb
short term... Cb
long term... Sgk
aviation... Sgk ml
marine... Sgk cb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 3 mi61 min SSW 5.1 G 8.9 85°F 81°F1017.6 hPa
41025 - Diamond Shoals 20 mi43 min SSW 14 G 16 83°F 1017.5 hPa (-0.4)77°F
44095 40 mi57 min 81°F2 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 40 mi61 min S 12 G 15 83°F 83°F1017 hPa

Wind History for USCG Station Hatteras, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hatteras, Mitchell Field, NC1 mi52 minSSW 1010.00 miFair86°F79°F80%1017.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHSE

Wind History from HSE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6SW7SW6SW5SW5SW7SW5W7SW5SW4W6SW443SW5SW5W6SW65SW6SW66SW8SW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Hatteras (fishing pier), North Carolina (3)
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Cape Hatteras (fishing pier)
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:23 AM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:26 AM EDT     3.11 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:28 PM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:35 PM EDT     3.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.82.21.50.90.60.60.91.52.22.83.13.12.72.21.61.10.70.811.62.22.83.23.3

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
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Cape Hatteras
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:07 AM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:28 AM EDT     4.02 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:29 PM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:38 PM EDT     3.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.22.41.50.80.50.71.222.93.6443.52.821.20.80.81.21.92.73.43.83.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.