Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for San Luis Obispo, CA

.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...13/152 PM.

A warming trend will begin Saturday as high pressure expands west from AZ. This will have the usual assortment of impacts, namely warmer temperatures (mostly away from the coast), and a shallower marine layer (between 800-1200 feet). Highs are expected to peak on Sunday with highs at least in the mid 90s across the warmest coastal valleys, with a 50-60% chance of reaching 97-99. These numbers would likely be below heat advisory criteria but can't rule that out completely. Closer to the coast, including Downtown LA highs will be in the 70s and 80s. Breezy but sub-advisory level Sundowner winds are expected across southwest Santa Barbara County tonight and Saturday night along with southwest winds across the Antelope Valley in the afternoon and evening.

Increasing northerly gradients are expected Sunday into Sunday night that will generate stronger Sundowner winds into early Monday with winds gusting 45 to 55 mph possible through the canyons and passes.

A trough is expected to move onshore over Central California Monday that should create a stronger onshore flow and cool temperatures at least a few degrees, but highs will still be a few degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...13/208 PM.

After a day of cooling Monday temperatures are expected to start ramping back up Tuesday and peaking Wednesday at similar or possibly even slightly higher temperatures than this coming Sunday. Still mostly 70s and 80s for coastal areas within around 10 miles of the coast. But again 90s for most of the coastal valleys and possibly touching 100 in the warmest areas and the Antelope Valley and interior SLO County.

The latter half of the week will turn cooler as a another trough hits the West Coast. By Thursday onshore gradients to the east are expected to be close to 10mb and gradients to the north will turn strongly positive (7mb SBA-BFL) putting an end to the Sundowners and likely keeping many coastal areas under a marine layer well into the afternoon.

AVIATION
14/0042Z.

At 0005Z at KLAX, the marine inversion was based at 1300 feet.
The top of the inversion was 3400 feet with a temperature of 23 degrees Celsius.

For 00Z TAF package, high confidence in KPRB, KWJF and KPMD.

For other sites, moderate confidence in 00Z TAFs. There is a 30% chance of LIFR/VLIFR conditions at KSBP 08Z-16Z. Elsewhere, timing of flight category changes could be +/- 2 hours of current forecasts.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. There is a 30% chance of cigs lowering to IFR category overnight into early Saturday morning. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. Timing of return of CIG/VSBY restrictions could be +/- 3 hours of current 08Z forecast with a 30% chance of MVFR conditions instead of IFR. There is a 20% chance that CIG/VSBY restrictions do not develop tonight.

MARINE
13/1238 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Wednesday, high confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds with seas hovering near SCA levels.
On Monday and Tuesday, there is a 40-60% chance of widespread Gale force winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Wednesday, SCA level winds are expected, mainly during the the afternoon and evening hours. There is a 20% chance of Gale force winds Monday and Monday night.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Today through Sunday, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for a majority of the southern Inner Waters, except for the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there will be an increasing chance of SCA level winds through the period. For Sunday night through Wednesday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel (with a 30% chance of Gale force winds Monday and Monday night), but winds are generally expected to remain below SCA levels elsewhere across the southern Inner Waters.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).