Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tupman, CA

KEY MESSAGES

1. Temperatures will remain cooler than climatological average today, but will overall be trending warmer this week.

2. Another system arrives midweek which will provide a chance of showers and thunderstorms to mainly the mountain areas.
Otherwise, warmer than average temperatures continue until the end of the week.

3. A cooldown and stronger system will bring a chance of more widespread precipitation and locally gusty winds by the weekend.

DISCUSSION
Some low clouds and fog continue over southern and eastern portions of the SJ Valley, but are expected to dissipate by later this afternoon. Expect high temperatures to remain below average today, but not as cool as over last weekend. As the ridge of high pressure builds over our area, much warmer temperatures are in store for Tuesday until later this week, with highs reaching several degrees above average by Wednesday.
The warmest spots still have a good chance of reaching at least 85 degrees on both Wednesday and Thursday, or roughly 40-80 percent. The chances of reaching 90 degrees, at least in the Central Valley, are low, or less than 15 percent, although Thursday would be the more favorable day. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will also develop over much of the mountain and foothill areas from Wednesday until at least Friday, although there is a slight chance for a showers towards Sequoia NF during this afternoon and early in the evening.

Model guidance continues to show a low pressure system impacting much of the region by the weekend. Latest probabilistic data show at least a couple of inches of snow by Saturday afternoon, including about a 40-50 percent chance by late afternoon. This system is looking similar to last weekend's pattern. So, we're not quite done with winter-like weather. Thunderstorm potential remains over the mountains and into southern and eastern parts of the SJ Valley, similar to last Saturday. Showers will linger over mainly the Sierra Nevada into Sunday. It appears a warming trend and drying begins early next week.

AVIATION
00Z Update:

In the San Joaquin Valley and West Side Hills, areas of MVFR due to low clouds will continue until 02Z Tuesday.

Across the Sierra Nevada, adjacent foothills and Tehachapi Mountains, mainly MVFR ceilings with local IFR due to mountain obscuration in showers and low clouds lasting thru 02Z Tuesday.

Otherwise VFR conditions prevail for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.