Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tupman, CA

KEY MESSAGES
1. Warming and drying trend this weekend with temperatures rising to above average.

2. An elevated risk for fire starts in Kern County due to low humidity and increased winds, particularly across the Mojave Desert.

3. Next chance for precipitation and cooler temperatures begins Monday.

DISCUSSION
Shortwave ridging across the west coast continues to bring warm and dry conditions for the region through this weekend.
Afternoon highs in the mid 80's are expected for the San Joaquin Valley and Mojave Desert. Along with this warming, RH's are expected to dry significantly, with values down to 5-10% in the desert and 10-15% for western Kern County. Combined with slightly elevated wind, elevated fire danger for the Kern County desert and minor fire risk for western Kern County will persist through Monday.

Looking to early next week, a cut-off low pressure system is expected to move through California starting Monday, bringing precipitation to the northern part of our CWA, becoming more prevalent by Tuesday. Current impacts are uncertain, but the Weather Prediction Center places at least 5% chance for excessive rainfall in the foothills north of Tulare County.
Current guidance places snow levels around 6500-7000 feet as the system passes through, lowering to 5000-5500 feet overnight into Wednesday. Probabilities for a foot of snow accumulation by Wednesday night are 60-70% north of Kings Canyon.

This system is also expected to cause strong winds on the leeward side of the Sierra Nevada and into the Mojave Desert Slopes. Probabilities for 65 mph gusts are 40 to 55% for Tuesday when the cut-off is expected to move through. This cut-off will also lead to cooling temperatures, and by Wednesday are expected to be 3 to 5 degrees below normal in the Valley.

Next weekend, a possible second system may brush by our area by next Saturday, which may bring additional precipitation to the mountainous regions of Fresno County and northwards, with probabilities for 0.01 inches of rainfall at 30 to 50% by Monday, April 27th. The Climate Prediction center also has our region under leaning above normal for precipitation for both the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks, so another late season system may be possible even as we approach our dry summer.


AVIATION
VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours.

FIRE WEATHER
A strong warm-up is expected for this weekend with afternoon temperatures approaching ten degrees above averages on Sunday.
Humidity will continue gradually drying across the region as a result. Elevated fire risk is expected particularly for the Mojave Desert with a decrease in minRH values between five and ten percent. Wind gusts will increase for the Mojave Slopes during the afternoons. An approaching system brings a pattern change late Monday, with precipitation across much of the region anticipated from then until Wednesday afternoon.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.