Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bayview, NC

NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/
As of 930 PM Wednesday...

Based on reports of dense fog across portions of northern Onslow County (where impacts from accumulating hail continue), we have issued a Dense Fog Advisory through the rest of the night. This is a very targeted advisory, focusing on a relatively small area from Fountain to Richlands, and as far south as the Albert J Ellis Airport.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...As of this evening, a weak cold front was progressing steadily southwest across southwestern sections of ENC. Behind this front, a much more stable airmass is in place, with no convection noted. Ahead of the front, a pool of residual instability remains, and scattered convection is ongoing in the vicinity of Duplin County. The airmass over, and around, Duplin County was likely worked over from earlier convection, and it appears unlikely that the thunderstorm risk will last much longer before the front clears this area. Until then, we'll hold onto a mention of thunderstorms for a few more hours. Given the drier and more stable airmass moving in, the risk of thunderstorms appears very low after midnight tonight, and I trended the chance of showers lower.

Of note, for areas in northern Onslow County that saw accumulating hail earlier this afternoon, there will continue to be a risk of fog (enhanced by the hail) and slippery roads. A Special Weather Statement was issued to cover lingering travel impacts in this area this evening. While the accumulating hail should steadily melt through the night, the fog risk may last most, if not all, of the night, and this area will be monitored for the potential need of a targeted Dense Fog Advisory. In light of all of the above, I hit the fog potential harder in the forecast for that area. I also added in a mention of fog for areas that saw the heaviest rainfall earlier today.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
As of 315 PM Wed...Aforementioned stalled front off the srn coast will be drawn inland by the seabreeze tomorrow. A drier airmass will mean covg of showers will be much less, and have a 20% chc for mainly the swrn 1/3 of the FA, with a small period of 30% for the far sw where better convergence and some instability will be present. Can't rule out an iso storm or two in the afternoon hours. Temps will be near seasonal norms, in the mid/upr 70s for most, with near 70 OBX zones.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 240 AM Wednesday...

Friday through Saturday...There will be enough residual moisture and instability behind the front to keep a chance for isolated to widely scattered showers and storms across the area Fri. Trends in the guidance indicate only minimal coverage of any showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. NBM PoPs look too high and have lowered them a little and if current trends continue in subsequent model runs then will continue to lower them in future forecasts. Yet another cold front is forecast to move through the area late Sat resulting in the threat for more widespread showers and storms. Highs Thu will be around 80, warming into the low 80s Fri and low to mid 80s Sat.

Sunday through Tuesday...Slightly cooler and drier air moves in as high pressure builds over the are from the north Sunday into early next week. Again NBM PoPs look to high for Sunday. Could see a lingering early morning shower, otherwise dry conditions should prevail. Will continue a dry weather forecast through mid next week though an isolated afternoon sea breeze shower or storm can't be completely ruled out. Highs Sunday will be in the low 70s, warming to the mid 70s Mon and low 80s Tue.

AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 00z Friday/...
As of 730 PM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGES

- FG and IFR/LIFR risk at OAJ through tonight

- Occasional sub VFR conditions possible elsewhere through the night

- TSRA risk appears lower on Thursday

For the most part, the TSRA risk is steadily shifting away from ENC as a weak cold front continues to progress southwest through the area. Until that front fully clears through, a limited TSRA risk will remain, mainly for areas west and southwest of KOAJ. In the wake of the earlier TSRA, residual low CIGs and reduced VIS will be possible at times, especially KOAJ, KISO, and KEWN. At KOAJ, specifically, accumulating hail from earlier will likely lead to an enhanced risk of reduced VIS and sub VFR CIGs . With this TAF update, I hit KOAJ harder, with the potential for a period of dense FG and LIFR conditions.
With the drier air moving in, it's unclear how long through the night the BR/FG risk will last, but there's a decent signal for for much of the night, and the TAFs reflect this expectation.
The drier air moving in is expected to support a reduced risk of TSRA on Thursday, with the main window of opportunity being focused along the afternoon seabreeze.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 240 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGES

- TSRA and sub-VFR risk persists through Saturday

A series of weak frontal boundaries coupled with sufficient moisture and instability will result in a chance for isolated to widely scattered mainly afternoon showers and storms Fri with brief sub VFR conditions possible. A strong front will cross the region late Sat with more widespread showers and thunderstorms and a better chance for a period of sub VFR conditions.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Thu/...
As of 315 PM Wed...Nerly winds behind frontal passage will cont at 5-15kt tonight and into Thu. Some ocnl gusts to 20 kt, but will remain below SCA levels. Some showers/storms early this evening will wane with loss of heating, with just some ocnl showers expected from time to time through Thu morning.

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/...
As of 240 AM Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Small Craft conditions possible Saturday night and Sunday

High pressure builds in Thu with NE winds 10-15 kt Thu with winds veering to SE around 10 kt Fri. Sat ahead of the next cold front winds become S to SW 10-15 kt then shift to NW to N 15 to 20 gusting to 25 kt Sat night and Sun as high pressure builds back in behind the cold front. Seas are forecast 2-4 ft with some 5 footers across the outer central waters Thu through Sat cold front will push south through the waters Wed with winds becoming NE around 15 kt and continuing Thu. Winds are forecast to become SE around 10 kt Fri and S to SW 10-15 kt Sat ahead of the next cold front. Thu through Sat seas are forecast to be 2-4 ft with some 5 footers possible over the outer waters. Seas build to 5-8 ft Sunday in the stronger post frontal northerly flow.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ198.
MARINE...None.