Thursday, August13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Morro Bay, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 7:55PM Thursday August 13, 2020 10:32 AM PDT (17:32 UTC) Moonrise 12:06AMMoonset 2:41PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ670 Point Piedras Blancas To Point Sal From 10 To 60 Nm- 914 Am Pdt Thu Aug 13 2020
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 5 to 6 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy dense fog with vsby 1 nm or less in the morning. Scattered tstms in the morning.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell nw 5 ft at 9 seconds and S 3 ft at 11 seconds.
Fri..N winds 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 9 seconds.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 8 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 8 seconds.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. NW swell 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. Mixed swell nw 4 ft and S 3 ft.
PZZ600 914 Am Pdt Thu Aug 13 2020
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 16z, or 9 am pdt, a 1028 mb surface high was located 1000 nm west of eureka, and a 1007 mb thermal low was over southeast california. Post-tropical cyclone elida was located about 500 nm south of los angeles and moving toward the northwest. Some showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms will be possible across the coastal waters through mid morning.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Morro Bay city, CA
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location: 35.39, -120.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 131532 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 832 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2020

SYNOPSIS. 13/824 AM.

There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the area today as moisture streams into the region from the south. It will be very warm today, then it will become very hot Friday especially for valley and interior areas. The heat is expected to last into early next week. Night and morning low clouds and fog will be minimal, and confined near the coast.

SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT). 13/831 AM.

***UPDATE***

As mentioned in the previous forecast, the main impactful weather this morning is in the form of the southerly flow bringing light showers over land and thunder over the water. The main lightning activity is southwest of Pismo at the moment, but there have been a few isolated strikes over San Luis Obispo County. Amended the forecast to include this activity along the central coast this morning. If there is enough clearing to allow for necessary warming, then the afternoon is still looking pretty good for some scattered thunderstorms over mountainous areas.

***From Previous Discussion***

An upper low was centered about 350 miles west of Point Conception early this morning. In the southerly flow on the eastern side of the upper low, a vort max was approaching the forecast area, and was interacting with some subtropical moisture lifting northward from the remnants of what was once tropical system "Elida". Precipitable water values have climbed to over 1.5 inches just to the south of the forecast area. This has caused numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop across the southern and outer coastal waters early this morning. There is a slight chance or a chance of showers across much of the region this morning, especially through mid morning as the vort lifts through the area. At this point, think thunderstorm activity will remain off the coast this morning, but a rumble or two of thunder is not out of the question.

Expect some reduction in cloud cover this afternoon, and the models show a decent amount of instability this afternoon, mainly in the mountains, the Antelope Valley, and the interior valleys of SLO and SBA Counties. Lifted index values drop to around -5.5 across the mtns of VTU County, with K index values near 42. Model soundings show CAPE as high as 1100 j/kg in the VTU County mtns. Orographics should provide enough of a trigger for some convective activity this afternoon, so will go with at least a slight threat of showers and thunderstorms in these areas this afternoon into early this evening. With any thunderstorm, there will be a threat of dry lightning, and erratic gusty winds, creating enhanced fire concerns.

Max temps today will be very tricky. The atmosphere will generally be warmer, and heights will be higher. However, increased moisture through the atmosphere would tend to offset any warming today, especially in places where it remains fairly cloudy. In fact, there may be a bit of cooling in some interior sections today. However, confidence in the temp forecast is rather low, and will be dependent upon the amount of afternoon sunshine.

The upper low will pull off a bit to the west tonight and Friday. Models show another surge of higher precipitable water values moving into the region late tonight and Fri. There will still be a fair amount of instability Fri afternoon, especially across the mtns of L.A. and VTU Counties and the Antelope Valley, but extending northwestward into interior SLO County as well. In addition, there will be less cloud cover and more heating. Therefore will go with a slight chance of showers/tstms again Fri afternoon in the same areas.

Expect little in the way of night through morning low clouds tonight/Fri morning. Onshore gradients weaken on Fri, and temps at 950 mb rise quite a bit. After a warm night tonight, with lows remaining in the 70s to around 80 in the valleys, foothills and Antelope Valley, max temps will really jump in most areas on Friday. Expect highs to rise to between 102 and 110 degrees in the Antelope Valley, the warmest locations in the lower mountain elevations, and in the warmest locations in the valleys from L.A. County through SLO County. An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for all of the areas starting of Fri, with a Heat Advisory for the Los Angeles County coast and the Santa Ynez Valley.

It will be another very warm night Fri night, with lows struggling to fall below 80 in the Antelope Valley, the foothills and even some valley locations. If there is any night through morning low clouds and fog, it will be confined to the immediate coast Fri night/Sat morning.

Heights will rise a bit more over the region on Sat as will temps at 950 mb. Gradients will remain rather weak, though may be slightly stronger onshore in the afternoon. Overall, expect little change in max temps on Sat, still very hot, with Excessive Heat warnings and Heat Advisories in effect for the same areas as those on Fri. N-S gradients across SBA County may bring some gusty sundowner winds to southern SBA County late Sat into Sat night.

LONG TERM (SUN-WED). 13/427 AM.

The upper high will move northward a bit into Nevada and Utah Sunday and Monday, but it will actually strengthen. Therefore, heights will remain very high across the forecast area. The EC keeps somewhat more in the way of ridging across the region both days, showing little if any cooling. The GFS shows the ridge axis lifting slightly to the north of the region, which may open the door for some monsoonal moisture moving into the area from the southeast Sun through Mon. As a result, it also shows a few degrees of cooling Sun, with little change Mon. Still, the combination over hot days and very warm nights should keep excessive heat conditions in place through Monday in the valleys and mtns.

Not much change in the upper pattern Tue and Wed, though the upper high may weaken a bit by Wed. The GFS shows weakening onshore gradients on Tue, which actually could allow for some warming west of the mountains. There will still be an opportunity for some monsoonal moisture pushing into the region Tue and Wed if the operational GFS is correct.

AVIATION. 13/1202Z.

At 0821Z, the marine layer was around 600 ft deep with the top of the inversion around a surface- based inversion up to around 2400 feet with a temperature around 28 degrees Celsius.

Remnant moisture from post-tropical storm Elida will bring VFR Clouds over the region through today with VCSH possible for coastal and valley TAFs through 1600z. Better chance for -TSRA across the mountains and Antelope Valley after 18z through 03z this evening.

Mid level clouds will cause LIFR/IFR stratus to scour out by 16z. Some smoke will affect KPMD and KWJF from the Lake Fire, otherwise terminals should remain VFR through the 24 hour period.

KLAX . There is a 20 percent chance for IFR conditions between through 16Z. Best chance of light rain will continue through 16z with no VIS restrictions expected. 20 percent chance for MVFR Conds if heavy shower develops.

KBUR . VFR conditions are expected through the period. 20-30 percent chance for VCSH through 16z. 20 percent chance of MVFR Conds if heavy shower develops.

MARINE. 13/212 AM.

Some remnant moisture from Post-Tropical Storm Elida will bring the possibility of early morning showers across the coastal waters and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Otherwise, Winds and seas will likely remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through Saturday morning. There is a 20-30 percent chance of SCA level gusts during the afternoon and evening hours each day from Point Conception to San Nicolas Island. There is a better chance of (SCA) winds increasing from Point Conception to San Nicolas Island Saturday afternoon through through Sunday evening. Then good confidence grows with (SCA) level NW wind gusts across the entire outer waters through at least Monday night.

The best chance for Sundowner winds will occur Saturday and Sunday evenings affecting the western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel with NW gusts reaching (SCA) thresholds.

Patchy fog, locally dense with visibility under one mile, will likely continue through mid-week across all the waters.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . Heat Advisory in effect from 11 AM Friday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for zones 36-41. (See LAXNPWLOX). Excessive Heat Warning in effect from 11 AM Friday to 9 PM PDT Monday for zones 37-38-44>46-51>54-88-547. (See LAXNPWLOX). Excessive Heat Warning in effect from 11 AM Friday to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for zone 59. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ . NONE.

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SAT-WED).

Triple digit high temperatures and very warm nights will bring the potential for excessive heat over many areas through Monday and, for far inland areas, into Tuesday. Otherwise, no significant hazards expected.



PUBLIC . DB/jld AVIATION . Kaplan MARINE . Kaplan SYNOPSIS . Sweet/DB

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46215 - Diablo Canyon, CA (076) 13 mi37 min 55°F3 ft
CPXC1 18 mi37 min E 7 G 15 66°F 1014.4 hPa56°F
PSLC1 - 9412110 - Port San Luis, CA 18 mi45 min ENE 13 G 27 65°F 60°F1014.4 hPa
46011 - SANTA MARIA - 21 NM Northwest of Point Arguello, CA 30 mi33 min ESE 9.7 G 14 57°F1013.9 hPa

Wind History for Port San Luis, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
San Luis Obispo, San Luis Obispo County-Mc Chesney Field, CA19 mi37 minESE 77.00 miOvercast60°F57°F90%1013.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBP

Wind History from SBP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5W4NW11W10NW11NW11NW10NW10NW12NW6W6NW6W3NW53CalmCalmW3CalmW44W5NW5SE7
1 day agoW54NW6NW11NW9NW11NW12NW13NW11NW9NW7NW7NW9NW5NW7N6NW6NW7N5NW7W3N4W34
2 days ago563NW7NW8W4W6NW10NW9NW7NW6W4NW4CalmCalmNW4CalmNW4CalmW4NW3SW3NW4W5

Tide / Current Tables for Morro Beach, Estero Bay, California
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Morro Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:05 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:39 AM PDT     1.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:21 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:26 AM PDT     3.06 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:02 PM PDT     2.72 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:41 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:44 PM PDT     4.83 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:53 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.21.11.31.72.22.62.9332.92.82.72.83.13.544.44.74.84.643.32.4

Tide / Current Tables for Port San Luis, Pacific Ocean, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Vandenberg AFB, CA
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