Sunrise 6:35 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 10:12 PM   Moonset 6:56 AM

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FXUS62 KGSP 270224 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1024 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak warm front will lift north of our area this evening. After that, we can expect a warming trend through the weekend and into next week as high pressure takes over. A weak cold front is expected to approach from the northwest on Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 1020 PM Friday: Area of rain associated with warm frontal band/isentropic lift has dissipated this evening. Clouds and light winds linger overnight. Token slight chance PoPs are retained through overnight into the daylight hours along the eastern Blue Ridge escarpment, as a S/SE/weak upslope regime is forecast to persist. With cloud cover remaining extensive, min temps are expected to be around 5 degrees above normal.

Otherwise, 1030+ mb surface high pressure over New England is expected to ooze slowly south through the period...and is forecast to be centered a couple hundred miles off the upper Mid-Atlantic coast by Saturday evening. This movement of the parent high into a less favorable location will result in gradual cessation of northeast low level flow and modification of weak hybrid cold air damming regime/thinning of cloud cover by Sat afternoon. As such, tomorrow's max temps are expected to be significantly warmer than today...actually topping out very close to climo.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 1235 PM EDT Friday: We will continue to warm up through the latter half of the weekend with deep layered ridging lingering atop the SE CONUS. The atmosphere is expected to remain suppressed, as piedmont temperatures warm to near 80 in spots. To start off the work week, with only subtle changes expected in the mean ridge positioning, it looks like another quiet wx day on Monday.
Coincident with the warming flow around Bermuda high pressure max temperatures will average around 5 deg F above Sunday's readings.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 100 PM EDT Friday: Southern plains energy supporting a weakly forced cool front will eject toward the cwfa on Tuesday. Forecast model blends and ensembles maintain a decent response as this feature shears across the region, likely being able to aid in the development of numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms in the mountains, with increasingly more limited deep convective cvrg by the time forcing makes it to the piedmont.

The pattern keeps a progressive look for the rest of the week and the most notable feature is the llvl ridge of very warm air with does not get displaced, so we expect lower elevation daily maximums to reach well into the 80s through next Friday. In the wake of Tuesday's weak s/wv passage, there may be a thunderstorm chance minima on Wednesday but rising back to more solid chances by the end of the period as broad frontal zone nears.

AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR has developed for most of the area. MVFR to IFR continues over the mountains but not currently at KAVL. For now, it looks like all sites will be VFR overnight, except for KAVL where IFR cigs and MVFR vsby likely with possibly lower conditions.
Can't rule out some MVFR cigs at the other sites. S wind continues at KAVL with NE for all but KCLT where SE wind remains. Clouds linger but should be VFR Saturday. S to SE wind develops by afternoon where it hasn't already.

Outlook: Drying is expected Sunday/Monday. A frontal system could bring a round of showers and storms to the area Tuesday, with more of a potential for isolated/scattered diurnal convection on Wed.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

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