Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cornelius, NC

Version 3.4
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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 8:31PM Thursday July 29, 2021 5:47 PM EDT (21:47 UTC) Moonrise 11:04PMMoonset 11:04AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cornelius, NC
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location: 35.45, -80.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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FXUS62 KGSP 291903 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 303 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

SYNOPSIS. Hot and dry high pressure extends into the region through Friday allowing heat indices to climb near or into the low 100s outside the mountains. On Friday, a cold front will approach the area gradually sinking south across the forecast area throughout the day. This frontal boundary will keep shower and thunderstorm chances around through the weekend. Early next week, another cold front brings cooler weather along with more shower and thunderstorm chances.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 230 PM: A deep ridge centered over the Plains extends into the Southeast this afternoon, maintaining above-normal temps. We remained exceptionally humid with dewpoints in the lower 70s at most Piedmont sites into early afternoon, but as anticipated dewpoints have mixed out enough to keep Heat Index out of advisory territory. LCLs also have become high enough to keep deep convection at bay so far. Maintained an isolated tstm mention near the south-facing Blue Ridge, but otherwise expecting dry conditions thru the evening.

An upper trough will remain entrenched over the NE CONUS thru Friday, as an embedded cyclone over Newfoundland is replaced by a shortwave. The shortwave will carry a cold front southward from its current position north of the Ohio River, likely reaching our northern CWA by morning. Some loosely organized storms will continue along the front to our NW this evening, but with the bulk of the upper forcing associated with the leading shortwave near the Mid-Atlantic coast, it remains rather weak and CAMs generally let it fizzle out before it makes it to our CWA. Decent lapse rates aloft could however maintain some MUCAPE, which would linger from this afternoon; it is thus conceivable storms could propagate into the northern zones, or fire anew along the boundary. We will maintain a small PoP in our north late tonight into Friday morning.

With very little upper support, surface plots from the synoptic models suggest the front will slowly sag further south, remaining near the southern border of NC by peak heating. Some enhancement to convective initiation can be expected. Heights don't take much of a hit with the slight progression in the pattern, so subsidence seems to win out in the CAMs, keeping their response on the low end near the front. However, with expected convergence and moisture pooling, plus rebound in instability on the synoptic models, will go with a solid chance PoP near the front and slight-chance elsewhere.

The front will bring slightly cooler air into the north, but along and south of it, partial thicknesses should be at or slightly above today's values. Max temps are expected to be in the mid 90s over most areas along and SE of I-85. Seeing how stubborn dewpoints have been today, and with the aforementioned moisture pooling, dewpoints will remain elevated AOA 70. For the Lakelands, basically our southern tier from Franklin to Greenwood Counties, heat index is expected to reach 105, and we are posting a Heat Advisory for Friday aftn/evening.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 235 PM EDT Thursday: the short-term forecast picks up at 00z on Saturday with broad upper trofing centered over the Northeast and steep upper ridging still in place over the rest of the CONUS. Over the next couple of days, the trof is expected to spread westward to some degree as it amplifies over the Great Lakes region. At the sfc, what's left of a weak frontal bndy will be situated over our southern fringe (or just south of there) as the period begins. Over the next 24 hrs or so, this bndy will slide farther southward and wash out as weak lee trofing develops over the fcst area. On Sunday, the lee trof develops a weak sfc low over the Carolinas and gradually lifts the low off the Atlantic Coast as the period ends late Sunday. As for the sensible fcst, we can expect more typical summertime PoPs for Saturday with above climo PoPs for Sunday. Temps will remain a few degrees above climo thru the period.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 215 PM EDT Thursday: the extended forecast picks up at 00z on Monday with broad upper trofing amplifying over the Great Lakes and NE CONUS as steep upper ridging persists over the west. Over the next couple of days, the upper trof is expected to amplify and dig farther south and shift slightly westward at the same time. By the end of the period on Thurs, most of the long-range guidance has the trof closing off an h5 low somewhere over the Ohio Valley. At the sfc, broad Canadian high pressure will push SE and move over the Great Lakes as a low tries to spin up just to our SW within a lee trof. This will allow some deeper moisture to linger over the area thru Tuesday with drier air spreading over the CWA by the end of the period. Temps will remain well-below normal thru the period.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR anticipated at the TAF sites. FEW-SCT low-VFR cumulus are seen this afternoon with higher than typical dewpoints across the Piedmont; mixing should raise these by late afternoon. SHRA/TSRA chance too small to mention due to large-scale subsidence. Winds will be fairly steady in the SW there. At KAVL, drier air is present along with a NW wind which should continue. A front sagging in from the north will introduce some cirrus which will limit radiational cooling tonight, so valley fog is not expected to be any more expansive than it was this morning. The front will induce a gradual wind shift to WNW/NW by midday across the Piedmont, and its presence will enhance convective initiation in what would otherwise be a day of sparse convection similar to today. PROB30 already included at KCLT along with low VFR cumulus.

Outlook: Increasing shower and thunderstorm chances develop over the weekend with stalled front. Early morning fog and low stratus will once again be possible each morning.

Confidence Table .

19-01Z 01-07Z 07-13Z 13-18Z KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAVL High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for GAZ026-028-029. NC . None. SC . Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for SCZ011-019.

SYNOPSIS . JPT NEAR TERM . Wimberley SHORT TERM . JPT LONG TERM . JPT AVIATION . Wimberley


Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 78 mi77 min SE 1.9 G 7 95°F 1014.9 hPa
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 95 mi27 min SSW 6 G 8 94°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Concord Regional Airport, NC11 mi57 minW 610.00 miFair93°F61°F34%1014.9 hPa
Lincolnton, Lincolnton-Lincoln County Regional Airport, NC13 mi52 minWSW 910.00 miFair92°F69°F46%1014.9 hPa
Charlotte, Charlotte / Douglas International Airport, NC17 mi55 minW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy92°F68°F46%1013.6 hPa
Gastonia Municipal Airport, NC21 mi53 minVar 310.00 miFair90°F72°F56%1013.7 hPa
Statesville Municipal Airport, NC22 mi52 minSSW 510.00 miFair93°F67°F42%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJQF

Wind History from JQF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8NE6NE4SE6CalmCalmCalmE3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4NW4W5W8W6W6
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4SW4CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5N5CalmCalmN6
2 days agoW4SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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