Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 7:08AM||Sunset 7:25PM||Sunday September 19, 2021 12:53 PM EDT (16:53 UTC)||Moonrise 6:10PM||Moonset 4:33AM||Illumination 96%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cornelius, NCHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS62 KGSP 191639 AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1239 PM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021
SYNOPSIS. Abundant moisture across the region will lead to solid daily chances of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day through the middle of the week. A strong cold front will arrive from the northwest by late Wednesday, and bring the potential for strong storms ahead of the front. Expect cooler and drier air for the rest of the week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 1215 pm EDT: A pocket of slightly higher sbCAPE in the northern Upstate will provide for locally better triggering and higher early afternoon PoPs, but with shower and thunderstorm coverage still remaining best in the mountains in regions of improving upslope flow. Little change in the forecast is needed midday, as moisture remains fairly abundant atop the region, but with the better plume of 2+ inch PWAT values still stretched out across the Mid and Deep South this afternoon. The ridge axis stretching from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic region still appears to be suppressing the deeper southern moisture just to the southwest today. Improving east to southeast flow at low-levels will likely provide peak triggering in our region later this afternoon, and decent moisture in profiles suggest numerous showers and thunderstorms in the southern mountains, ranging down to isolated shower coverage nearer the I-77 corridor by mid to late afternoon. Temperatures are on pace for above climo values despite the clouds, especially along and east of I-77 and north of I-40 where insolation has been a bit better today. Severe storm potential looks very limited, but training of slowly moving cells given the deep warm cloud layers will need to be monitored in the southwest mountains for isolated flooding.
The low-level upslope flow will continue overnight, so unlike the past few nights, it looks as if some light precip will continue near the Blue Ridge Escarpment through the overnight period. Low temps will remain above normal.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. As of 300 AM EDT Sunday: A highly amplified upper ridge will persist along the East Coast Monday into Tuesday, then shift east Wednesday, as deep trough digs into the middle of the CONUS. Some pieces of shortwave energy will lift north out around the western edge of the strong ridge, providing some upper support for precip across the region. In the low-levels a persistent ELY/SELY flow will bring a moisture plume of 1.5-2.0" PWATs into the forecast area. The 850 mb jet will be up to 25-30 kts out of the SE, so good upslope forcing along the escarpment could enhance rain chances and QPF. The models do hint at heavy rainfall, with models spitting out run accums of 4-8" thru 12z Wed in the region, but each with the bulls eye in a different spot. A couple of factors to consider is the weak mid-level lapse rates and overall CAPE across the forecast area, and potential for perhaps upstream convection in the Low Country or Midlands that could rob some of our moisture transport. Also, a hybrid or in-situ CAD looks to set up by early Tuesday, and could focus precip near the wedge front, wherever that ends up. So with all that said, not enough confidence in the excessive rain/flood threat to mention in the HWO at this time. Otherwise, it should be mostly cloudy to overcast for most of Monday and Tuesday, with low temps above normal and highs slightly below normal, coolest Tuesday with the wedge. The lack of instability will mean just an isolated thunder threat both days, mainly in the mountains.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 330 AM EDT Sunday: The latest guidance seems to be coming into better agreement on the deep Midwestern upper trough entering the Ohio Valley Wednesday, and quickly closing off into an upper low near the southern Great Lakes. The model convergence doesn't necessarily make for an easy forecast Wednesday, as there will be a weakening wedge right as a cold front pushes in from the west. If there is enough of a lull in forcing, the wedge should erode and allow some destabilization across the Piedmont ahead of the front. The GFS is still just a little faster with the front, and keeps the best instability to our east. But the ECMWF and Canadian have 1500+ J/kg with 30 kts or so of bulk shear. So could see some sort of QLCS try to organize before the front clears the area Wednesday aftn or early evening. But confidence is still too low to mention in the HWO. Temps will be tricky as well, given the dynamic environment, but look to be slightly below to near normal.
The front will push east of the area Wednesday night, ushering in a nice fall air mass to the region for the rest of the week. The center of a moderating high pressure will settle over the forecast area by 12z Friday, bringing temps down into the 40s in the mountains and foothills and lower to mid 50s elsewhere. Highs will be mainly in the 70s (except cooler above 3500 ft) under mostly clear skies. Temps will moderate to around normal over the weekend with continued dry conditions.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. At KCLT and elsewhere: High end MVFR or low end VFR stratocumulus bases haved developed in the limited insolation, with mid/high cloud ceilings already in place. Wind direction should veer around to SE through the day, with light flow less than 10 kt. Guidance continues to suggest that the convection this afternoon will be concentrated again over northeast GA, far nortwest SC, and the southwest part of NC. Only KAVL seems to have a mentionable chance of precip, so KAVL will keep a PROB30 and likely morph to a TEMPO through the aftn. The remainder of the terminals will keep a vicinity shower/thunderstorm mention except dry at KCLT. Unlike the last few days, the precip should linger well into the overnight hours in the upslope areas near the Blue Ridge Escarpment, however, this may not impact any of the terminals. Instead, weak upslope flow will favor the development of a widespread MVFR cloud deck in the pre-dawn hours.
Outlook: Primarily diurnal shra/tsra will continue through Monday. Shower/scattered storm chances increase Mon night through Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front. Nighttime/morning low cigs/vsbys will also become increasingly likely each day through mid-week. Dry and VFR conditions arrive behind the front by Thursday.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. NC . None. SC . None.
SYNOPSIS . ARK NEAR TERM . HG SHORT TERM . ARK LONG TERM . ARK AVIATION . HG/PM
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
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|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC||78 mi||84 min||SSE 2.9 G 6||81°F||1021.3 hPa|
|LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC||95 mi||34 min||E 1.9 G 4.1||79°F|
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|Concord Regional Airport, NC||11 mi||64 min||E 5||10.00 mi||Partly Cloudy||82°F||68°F||62%||1022.3 hPa|
|Lincolnton, Lincolnton-Lincoln County Regional Airport, NC||13 mi||59 min||E 5||10.00 mi||Partly Cloudy||84°F||68°F||58%||1021.7 hPa|
|Charlotte, Charlotte / Douglas International Airport, NC||17 mi||62 min||ENE 4||10.00 mi||Mostly Cloudy||83°F||70°F||65%||1020.7 hPa|
|Gastonia Municipal Airport, NC||21 mi||60 min||NE 6||10.00 mi||Partly Cloudy||81°F||70°F||69%||1020.9 hPa|
|Statesville Municipal Airport, NC||22 mi||59 min||E 5||10.00 mi||Fair||83°F||67°F||59%||1022 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KJQF
Wind History from JQF (wind in knots)
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