Thursday, July16, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cornelius, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 8:39PM Thursday July 16, 2020 9:30 AM EDT (13:30 UTC) Moonrise 1:50AMMoonset 4:09PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cornelius, NC
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location: 35.45, -80.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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FXUS62 KGSP 161043 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 643 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

SYNOPSIS. A strong upper-level ridge of high pressure will persist atop the region into the weekend. This will support ongoing hot and increasingly humid conditions. Expect chances for showers and thunderstorms to gradually increase each day through the weekend as a weak front settles into the region. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will persist each day early next week as hot conditions continue.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 640 AM: Low clouds and patchy fog, mainly along and near the Blue Ridge should lift or scatter out by mid morning.

The upper ridge remains over the region today, with forecast soundings revealing continued warm mid-level and weak inhibition. That said, guidance, especially the NAM, shows dew points not mixing out as much this afternoon. This leads to lower LFC levels than the past few days but still mainly elevated instability possibly reaching moderate levels. In fact, synoptic and CAM guidance shows diurnal convection developing. While there is good agreement on scattered coverage over the mountains and foothills, they differ on coverage elsewhere. Some favor the CLT metro, others favor the GSP metro, while some don't favor any location outside of the higher terrain. Do allow chance PoP to drop to the I-85 corridor as scattered convection is most likely north of there. Slight chance PoP remains to the south. Although the chance of severe storms is low, can't rule out a strong or severe storm or two given the high dCAPE levels forecast. Highs will be a couple of degrees cooler than the last 2 days. However, high dew points will keep the threat of 100 degree heat index values along and south of the I-85 corridor.

Convection diminishes this evening with lingering clouds. Lows remain above normal.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. As of 330 AM EDT Thursday: We head into the weekend underneath a strong and expansive upper-level ridge which stretches across the entire southern CONUS. Our region will remain on the eastern side of the ridge axis which will remain nearly overhead during the period. Resultant thicknesses will continue to support hot conditions Friday and Saturday across the region with no relief from the humidity. Max temperatures are expected to be about 2-4 degrees above normal both days so heat index values will reach the upper 90s. Daytime mixing should lower afternoon dewpoints enough (upper 60s) to keep heat indices from exceeding 100 for most areas, but 100-102 heat indices are still possible for scattered areas across the lower Piedmont and other isolated locations across the Upstate and southern NC Piedmont near Charlotte.

Despite the ridge, a long-advertised surface front is expected to drift south and east towards the region on Friday and into the region overnight Friday into Saturday. Although weak, its presence will provide enough low-level convergence to act as a focusing mechanism for increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage, first across the mountains and northern Piedmont on Friday and then across most of the CWA on Saturday. This activity will be aided by SBCAPE values of 750-1500 J/kg and the lack of an inhibitive warm nose aloft. Persistent moisture flux from the Atlantic around a surface high pressure center offshore will cause PWs to peak between 2 and 2.25" each afternoon. Bulk shear will be nearly nonexistent under the ridge and increasing column moisture doesn't support a notable damaging wind threat so at this time we are not expecting a meaningful pulse severe threat. However, any cells that do develop will have mean storm motions of less than 10kts and while they will be fighting subsidence from the upper ridge, at least a few will persist long enough to warrant excessive rainfall concerns and isolated flooding will be possible. That being said, we have been drying out over the past couple of weeks and could use a bit of rain.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 330 AM EDT Thursday: What remains of the surface front across the area will linger across the central Carolinas into Sunday underneath a slightly weaker ridge. Therefore, our sensible weather will change little Sunday with continued heat and humidity, accompanied by another round of scattered to numerous heavy showers and thunderstorms across the area. As we begin the new work week, our weather will remain rather unsettled as a Piedmont trough axis persists near or over our area. Despite the mid- and upper-level ridging, continued rounds of daytime chance to likely PoPs will dominate through the middle of next week as a result of near-surface trough axis convergence and persisting weakness in the lower-levels as several weak shortwaves propagate in the mean westerlies across the Mid-Atlantic. In response to a stronger shortwave inducing height falls over the Ohio Valley, a weak front may approach the Appalachians later Tuesday into Wednesday which could enhance convective coverage yet again. This front may back us off 2-4 degrees from recent max temperatures for next Wednesday, but the overall pattern will remain stagnant and support max temperatures 2-6 degrees above normal and heat indices peaking in the upper 90s and lower 100s for the remainder of the period. Monday still looks like the hottest day with the upper-level ridge peaking over the southern Appalachians.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. At KCLT and elsewhere: MVFR to IFR cigs, and patchy fog, along and near the Blue Ridge will scatter out by mid morning. Low clouds will be near KCLT, so will add restrictions if needed. KHKY and KAVL may see low VFR cigs through the morning if clouds lift instead of scatter out. Isolated to scattered convection develops by afternoon. Have PROB30 and VCTS at KAVL and KHKY where chance is highest. However, can't rule out a cell elsewhere, but chance too low to include for now. Convection diminishes during the evening. Low VFR cigs may linger some locations through the night but kept as scattered for now. KAVL the exception where MVFR looks likely toward daybreak, with IFR possible. Light SE wind this morning becomes stronger S for the afternoon, then light SE overnight.

Outlook: Diurnal convective coverage more typical of mid-July is expected Friday, with coverage likely increasing through the weekend into Monday. Mountain valley fog and low stratus will be possible each day.

Confidence Table .

10-16Z 16-22Z 22-04Z 04-06Z KCLT High 82% High 100% High 100% High 100% KGSP Med 75% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAVL High 85% High 97% High 100% High 87% KHKY Med 75% High 92% High 100% High 100% KGMU High 87% High 97% High 100% High 100% KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. NC . None. SC . None.

SYNOPSIS . JMP NEAR TERM . RWH SHORT TERM . JMP LONG TERM . JMP AVIATION . RWH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 78 mi61 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 80°F
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 95 mi41 min SE 4.1 G 7 82°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Concord Regional Airport, NC11 mi41 minN 010.00 miOvercast79°F73°F84%1023.4 hPa
Lincolnton, Lincolnton-Lincoln County Regional Airport, NC13 mi36 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F75°F93%1022.7 hPa
Charlotte, Charlotte / Douglas International Airport, NC17 mi39 minSE 810.00 miOvercast80°F73°F79%1021.5 hPa
Gastonia Municipal Airport, NC21 mi37 minN 010.00 miOvercast81°F73°F79%1021.4 hPa
Statesville Municipal Airport, NC22 mi36 minSE 310.00 miOvercast77°F72°F86%1022.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJQF

Wind History from JQF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN8N5NW9CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days ago----CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Greenville-Spartanburg, SC (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Greer, SC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.