Monday, January18, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cornelius, NC

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 5:38PM Monday January 18, 2021 9:09 PM EST (02:09 UTC) Moonrise 11:04AMMoonset 11:14PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cornelius, NC
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location: 35.45, -80.91     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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FXUS62 KGSP 182307 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 607 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

SYNOPSIS. Dry high pressure will build into the area through Tuesday. A weak cold front will lay down across the region late Tuesday, stalling out across the Deep South for Wednesday through Friday. Cool high pressure then builds in from the north for the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 6 pm EST: Snow showers continue to wane across the northern mountains early this evening and they should taper off completely by midnight. That will leave the main concern for the overnight hours the potential for patchy black ice to form as temperatures fall well into the 20s across the mountains and some roads remain wet from modest snow melt today. An SPS has been issued to address this.

Otherwise, the upper pattern becomes zonal over the FA Tue as part of a larger scale confluent zone. This will enable a srn stream sfc high to influence the weather with weak WAA as winds outside the mtns remain in general sw/ly dir aided by a persistent lee trof. Thus, expect relatively warm max temps Tue with highs reaching abt 5 degrees abv normal. The flow arnd the sfc high will generate modest wrn GOM moisture adv into the wrn mtns Tue afternoon/evening, about the same time a pocket of h5 vort energy arrives with moisture of it/s own. Low-level winds upstream of the mtns will remain in wsw/ly to w/ly direction and not ideal for topo lift, yet it will be enuf for the generation of light precip across the higher terrain by the later afternoon into the evening. With the warmer temps anticipated, precip will be mostly rain with a transition to -ra/sn and -sn across the higher elevations mostly due to diurnal cooling. Not expecting much if any snow accum thru the end of the near term period, however.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 205 pm Monday: Low level flow will veer to NW and accelerate Tue night into Wed in the wake of frontal zone. Lingering moisture over the TN Valley and western slopes of the southern Appalachians could ring out a few light rain/snow showers or sprinkles/flurries, but models indicate very shallow moisture will make it difficult to get much more than that. The bigger story within this regime will be the gusty surface winds, which could approach Advisory criteria over the mountains . mainly along and northeast of the French Broad Valley, and especially over the higher elevations in that area.

Precip chances will increase again late Wed night into Thursday, when a broad warm advection regime develops within the baroclinic zone across the Southeast, as an area of height falls skirts across the northeast quadrant of the country. Although moisture is expected to be limited across the region, light precip could develop as far east as the southern Appalachians and vicinity by daybreak Thursday. If precip is able to develop early enough in the day, the potential will exist for a wintry mix across the mountains, although any accums would likely be very light. Temps will be very close to climo through the period.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 220 pm Monday: The global models continue to struggle with the highly progressive/zonal flow pattern that will overlay much of the Conus during the early part of the medium range . especially regarding the interaction of embedded short wave troughs with the baroclinic zone over the Southeast and attendant precip chances. In fact, some guidance has been notoriously flip-flopping between wet and dry solutions for our forecast area during the late-week period, with the latest ECMWF flipping back to a much drier/more suppressed solution. Although this is in line with the other major global models, we are hesitant to make any radical changes to pops considering the nature of the pattern, and mainly token 20-40 pops will be carried for much of the area Thu night through Friday.

After that, a dry and seasonably cool weekend appears increasingly likely as the flow pattern begins to amplify, with an upper ridge building across much of the eastern half of the Conus. The global models area generally in good agreement regarding the details of this transitioning pattern, depicting the first in perhaps a series of short wave troughs ejecting from the Four Corners to the Ohio Valley during the early part of the week. Resultant moist warm advection and approaching frontal zone will bring the next chances for precip to our forecast area by Monday.

AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. At KCLT and elsewhere: Aside from the far western mountains, dry profiles will persist through the period at all sites, with no flight restrictions expected. A lee trof will persist across the area and sfc winds outside the mtns will be generally southwesterly after a short period of WSW early this evening. At KAVL, winds will remain northwesterly. Winds will go lighter overnight, yet the fog potential remains low as the sfc layer will be too dry. Winds come up a bit on Tuesday, with SW flow gusts possible east of the mountains during the afternoon with mixing. Any returning showers from the west late day should remain west of KAVL.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday. Moisture and restrictions could return later in the week, possibly Thursday.

Confidence Table .

23-05Z 05-11Z 11-17Z 17-18Z KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAVL High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. NC . None. SC . None.

SYNOPSIS . DEO NEAR TERM . HG/SBK SHORT TERM . JDL LONG TERM . JDL AVIATION . HG/SBK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 78 mi40 min WSW 2.9 G 5.1 44°F 1020.7 hPa
LMFS1 - Lake Murray SC 95 mi50 min W 2.9 G 2.9 46°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Concord Regional Airport, NC11 mi80 minNW 1110.00 miFair43°F23°F46%1021.3 hPa
Lincolnton, Lincolnton-Lincoln County Regional Airport, NC13 mi75 minN 010.00 miFair33°F22°F63%1020.3 hPa
Charlotte, Charlotte / Douglas International Airport, NC17 mi78 minNNW 510.00 miFair41°F23°F49%1020.8 hPa
Gastonia Municipal Airport, NC21 mi76 minN 310.00 miFair42°F21°F43%1020.8 hPa
Statesville Municipal Airport, NC22 mi75 minNW 510.00 miFair38°F22°F52%1019.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJQF

Wind History from JQF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--SW6SW7SW8S8SW4SW4SW3CalmCalmCalmW3W5W11
G15
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1 day ago--S3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm----------------------------
2 days agoCalmN5CalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W4W6SW6W6W7
G16
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




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