NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
As of 10 PM Sat...A boundary associated with a cold front moving in from the north has now reached the US 17 corridor with a thin broken line of showers along it. The showers have already started weakening and should continue to dissipate over the next hour or so as the boundary reaches the southern NC coast.
There still could be some gusty winds up to 40 mph in these showers, but chances for lightning are pretty much zero. Behind this front, cooler and drier air will quickly move into the region tonight, and temperatures will cool from their currently readings in the 70s to the low to mid 60s after midnight. By tomorrow morning expect lows to range from the upper 50s inland to the mid 60s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
As of 300 PM Saturday...High pressure will become established across the area Sunday and should keep any precipitation associated with the departed front which will now be stalled just south of the region, at bay through at least 00Z Mon. Skies are expected to be partly cloudy with diminishing winds in the afternoon. Cooler highs in the low to mid 70s are expected.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 245 AM Saturday...High pressure will build into the Mid- Atlantic Sunday into Monday and continue to ridge into the area for much of next week bringing dry weather but also below normal temps and comfortable dew points. An area of low pressure may develop off the Southeast coast late next week.

Monday...An upper trough will persist across the Eastern seaboard through Monday with sfc high pressure building into the region bringing dry weather and below normal temps. Highs expected to be in the upper 70s.

Monday night through Wednesday...The upper trough will lift out Monday night with upper ridging building across the Eastern CONUS mid to late week. Sfc high pressure will continue to be centered across the northern Mid-Atlantic/New England states and ridge southward into the area through Thursday keeping generally dry weather. North to northeast flow will prevail keeping temps slightly below seasonal norms with highs generally in the lower to mid 80s.

Thursday through Friday...Guidance is suggesting a rex block may develop late next week with ridging across the Great Lakes and a weak upper low setting up somewhere over the Southeast.
Meanwhile sfc high pressure across the Mid-Atlantic will gradually weaken while continuing to ridge into the area. This will allow a stalled frontal boundary across the northern Gulf of Mexico and central FL to lift northward and could see an area of low pressure develop off the Southeast coast Friday into the weekend. Depending on how far north the boundary lifts and how close the low develops to the coast will dictate the coverage or precip that may impact the region. Stayed close to NBM attm with brings slight chance to chance PoPs across the region, highest across the coastal waters. East to northeast winds continues to allow for seasonably cool temps with highs in the lower to mid 80s.

AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Sunday Evening/...
As of 10 PM Sat...Some brief periods of MVFR conditions are possible this evening as a broken line of gusty showers moves SE from the NC coastal plain. Coverage of these showers along a cold front should be at their greatest coverage right now, with decreasing coverage expected the next couple of hours as loss of heating/mixing helps to weaken convection. After midnight, VFR conditions are expected to return and will continue through tomorrow evening, with just some low to mid level clouds (4000-6000 ft) and breezy north winds (15-20 mph) expected.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 3 AM Saturday...High pressure will build across the region for much of next week bringing predominant VFR conditions.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/..
As of 10 PM Saturday...SCA's continue in effect for the sounds and coastal waters. A cold front will sweep across the waters late this evening followed by building high pressure late tonight and Sunday. This will cause current N-NE flow of 10-20 kt to increase to 15-25kt with g30 kt late this evening into Sunday morning. Seas of 4-6 ft will build to 5-9 ft overnight.

Sunday winds will begin to gradually diminish from 15-25 kt early to 10-15 kt late. Seas will subside to 4-7 ft late.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 315 AM Saturday...High pressure builds into the Mid- Atlantic into Monday and will persist through much of next week.
NE to E winds will continue around 15 kt or less through Wednesday.

Seas will gradually subside with most waters dropping below SCA criteria by Sunday evening, however 6-7 ft seas may linger across the outer central waters through Sunday night/Monday morning.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Sunday through Sunday evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ131-135-230- 231.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ156-158.