Bath, NC Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bath, NC

May 7, 2024 3:16 PM EDT (19:16 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:09 AM   Sunset 8:00 PM
Moonrise 4:36 AM   Moonset 6:49 PM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 1131 Am Edt Tue May 7 2024

Rest of today - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt late. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.

Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the evening.

Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.

Wed night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the evening. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.

Thu - SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of tstms in the afternoon.

Thu night - SW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely.

Fri - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of tstms in the morning. A chance of showers.

Fri night - NW winds around 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.

Sat - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft.

Sat night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 1131 Am Edt Tue May 7 2024

Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - High pressure will continue to strengthen offshore while weak troughing continues for the next few days, as warm moist southerly flow leads to unsettled conditions. A strong frontal system will move through Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bath, NC
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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 071805 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 205 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will continue to strengthen offshore while weak troughing continues for the next few days, as warm moist southerly flow leads to unsettled conditions. A strong frontal system will move through Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 1045 AM Tuesday...

A wavy frontal boundary stretches west to east from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic Coast this morning, with a moist and modestly unstable airmass to the south. Within the broad warm sector, a narrow area of weak WAA is ongoing across the Carolinas. Elevated convection is ongoing within the above- mentioned zone of WAA, mainly impacting far SE NC. To the west of ENC, weak showers were noted near the Raleigh metro, but these have been weakening as they push east.

WAA is forecast to weaken with time, and I expect the ongoing convection across SE NC will continue to weaken through the lunch hour. The weak WAA is occurring on the backside of a weak mid-level shortwave that is currently moving through ENC. In the wake of this wave, short-wave ridging is forecast to move over the eastern Carolinas, which will lead to a period of modest subsidence during the typical peak in the diurnal convective window.

Meanwhile, a moist southwesterly flow is forecast to keep dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s, while a westerly low-level flow support highs topping out in the mid to upper 80s. Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, heating of the moist boundary layer should support the development of moderate instability (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 j/kg) by this afternoon. Then, as the mid-level wave moves east, there will be a modest increase in northwesterly flow aloft, supporting deep layer shear of 25-35kt. At face value, this shear/instability combo is supportive of severe weather
But

The forecast challenge today revolves around forcing. The magnitude of subsidence forecast isn't expected to be strong, but is still noteworthy. Meanwhile, there doesn't appear to be any real large- scale forcing for ascent, which leaves the seabreeze as the primary catalyst for initiation.

In light of all of the above, I expect the coverage of convection to be much lower than yesterday. It should be noted that some guidance suggests we will stay dry through tonight.
With westerly flow enhancing convergence on the seabreeze, I still expect at least a few storms to form in the 2-5pm timeframe. If a storm can develop AND be sustained for any length of time, the environment appears supportive of hail of penny to half-dollar size, and wind gusts of 40-60 mph. The tornado risk still appears very low due to relatively higher LCLs and weak low-level shear.

Convection is expected to be primarily diurnally-driven, with a weakening trend expected after sunset.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 145 PM Tuesday...

Mid-upper level ridging will shift offshore on Wednesday, allowing more of a zonal flow aloft to develop from the TN Valley east through the Carolinas. Within this flow, an impulse, or two, lifting out of the Lower MS Valley will traverse the Appalachians and Carolinas later Wednesday through Wednesday night, interacting with a moist and unstable airmass to support an increased risk of clusters of thunderstorms in a broad zone from the TN Valley to the Carolinas. Locally, there will also be some potential for convection along the seabreeze (which will tend to be pinned closer to the coast thanks to the westerly low-level flow forecast).

This type of setup is a classic one for MCS development, and I expect a MCS, or two, to impact portions of the Carolinas Wednesday/Wednesday night. This type of pattern can also be a low confidence one, though, as models can sometimes struggle with the evolution of convection as it moves downstream. This is a pattern, though, that can support a longer-lived MCS running the length of NC. And, locally, there is also the potential for seabreeze convection unrelated to any MCS', especially with less ridging/subsidence compared to today. With all of the above in mind, I have opted to go with a broad-brushed 30-40% chance of thunderstorms for the entire Wednesday/Wednesday night period.
We'll continue to refine when/where the best chance will be in the coming shifts.

From a hazards standpoint, any MCS that develops will carry a risk of damaging winds. Mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steeper than today (as high as 6.5-7.0 C/km), so hail will be a concern both with linear segments and with any discrete storms that manage to develop on the seabreeze. It's also worth pointing out that forecast MLCAPE of 2000-3000j/kg and deep layer shear of 25-30kt will be supportive of instances of higher-end severe weather for this area (ie. 60+ mph winds and >1" size hail). The caveat is that the evolution of upstream convection will have a significant impact on our airmass, as any early convection would tend to keep instability lower, and vice-versa. SPC has recently upgraded a portion of our area to a "Slight" risk of severe weather, which appears warranted given all of the factors outlined above.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As 330 AM Mon...There have been a few changes in the forecast since the previous update but the overall trend remains the same as ENC will remain unsettled into this weekend with a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms into Friday before potentially drying out on Sat. Highest risk for severe weather still looks to be on Thursday. High pressure ridging finally overspreads ENC early next week.

Thursday...Have made some tweaks to the forecast for Thurs with the latest data and trends in mind. Upper level zonal flow begins to overspread ENC on Wed out ahead of a positively tilted upper trough which will be located in the Upper Midwest to start the period. Within this zonal flow, guidance has come into better agreement that a weak mid level disturbance will trek across the Carolinas and then offshore Wed evening into Thurs morning.

As Wednesday's shortwave pushes off the coast, any leftover shower and thunderstorm activity will quickly weaken Wed night into Thurs and push offshore. As we get into Thurs, upper level trough migrates over to the Great Lakes region while a jet streak begins to expand over the Mid-Atlantic increasing lift.
At the mid levels a second and stronger mid level shortwave rounds the base of the trough and tracks over the Mid-Atlantic Thurs afternoon/evening while at the surface deepening low pressure system in the Great Lakes tracks NE'wards into the Northeast with its associated cold front nearing western NC and a prefrontal trough setting up over the Coastal Plain Thurs evening. With ample MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg over ENC in the afternoon, stronger wind shear 30-40 kts, and slightly stronger forcing, ENC will once again have another threat for scattered showers and isolated to widely scattered strong to severe tstms.
Once again the main hazard within the strongest storms will be damaging winds and hail. Given the higher risk for severe wx on Thurs ENC is in a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather Thurs afternoon and evening. Highs each day get into the low 90s inland and 80s across the OBX while lows only get down into the 60s.

Friday through early next week... Upper level troughing finally pivots out of the Great Lakes and overspread the Mid-Atlantic on Fri into Sat with the last and likely strongest mid level shortwave rounding this troughs base on Fri. This is where the biggest change in the forecast has been as at the surface, low pressure in the Northeast will continue to trek NE'wards while its associated cold front finally tracks across the region slowing as it pushes offshore. A wave of low pressure develops along this frontal boundary on Fri as well and tracks along or near the coast. The eventual track will have a major impact on whether the area sees thunder on Fri as a low track just offshore keeps us on the cool and more stable side while a low track just inland gives us a threat for additional thunderstorms on Fri. For now kept thunder in the grids for Fri afternoon and evening until we get more clarity on the eventual evolution of the forecast. Either way Friday looks to have the best shot at widespread precip. Through the weekend and into next week general troughing remains over the Eastern Seaboard before gradually ejecting out into the Canadian Maritimes. Will have one more chance at a frontal passage Sun evening into Mon before surface ridging begins to overspread ENC from the west.
Temps do cool over the weekend closer to normal.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 18z Wednesday/...
As of 145 PM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Lower TSRA risk today compared to yesterday

- Increased TSRA risk on Wednesday

FORECAST DETAILS

A few SHRA have recently developed across northern sections of Eastern NC, but the coverage has been much lower compared to yesterday. I expect this to continue to be the case, with the best chance of a SHRA or TSRA being confined closer to the close where the seabreeze will offer the best lift. Otherwise, quieter conditions expected through tonight for aviation interests. On Wednesday, the risk of TSRA is forecast to increase once again, however the latest guidance suggests this risk will be focused after the current 18z TAF cycle. Given radar trends this afternoon, I opted to remove VCTS from the TAFs given lowering confidence. I have also kept TS out of the TAFs for Wednesday, as the better chance appears to be later in the day.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 330 AM Tue... Expecting primarily VFR conditions outside of any shower and tstm activity Wed night and Thurs with the best shot at seeing widespread sub-VFR conditions on Fri. VFR conditions then return on Sat across the CWA

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 7 AM Tue...Latest obs show SW winds 10-20 kt with seas 2-4 ft. SW/WSW winds 10-20 kt expected for most of today with seas 3-5 ft. Expect another surge 15-25 kt late this afternoon and into tonight with strengthening thermal gradient. Given how winds overachieved a bit Monday evening, went ahead with a SCA for the central and southern waters late this afternoon into tonight, with potential for a period of frequent gusts to 25 kt along with seas building to 4-6 ft. May need to be extended into the Pamlico Sound as well. Sct showers and tstms expected across the waters today.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 340 AM Mon... Not much change in the forecast overall as unsettled weather will remain in place into the end of the week promoting a daily chance at showers and thunderstorms across our waters each day. Locally enhanced winds and seas will be possible within any thunderstorm that makes its way into the area. Otherwise the background winds remain SW'rly at 10-20 kts on Wed with a few gusts up near 25 kts at times Wed aftn and evening as the thermal gradient sets up. As we get into Thursday, gradient tightens out ahead of an approaching cold front allowing winds to increase closer to 15-25 kts with gusts in excess of 20-30 kts across our waters. Strongest winds will be located across our coastal waters and larger sounds likely necessitating a SCA for Thurs across portions of ENC. As the front nears and begins to push offshore on Fri winds decrease closer to 10-15 kts and become more W'rly on Fri before becoming NW'rly and increasing slightly to 15-20 kts Fri night behind the frontal passage. NW'rly winds continue through Sat before winds return to a S'rly direction towards the end of the weekend. 3-5 ft seas along our coastal waters on Wed increase to 4-7 ft on Thurs as the winds increase with some 8 ft seas possible along the Gulf Stream waters. Seas gradually ease over the weekend as winds ease down to 2-4 ft.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154- 156-158.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 53 mi47 min SW 8G15 77°F 76°F29.80
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 62 mi77 min SW 12G17 75°F 29.85
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 66 mi47 min SW 11G15 73°F 72°F29.83


Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KOCW WASHINGTONWARREN,NC 11 sm11 minWSW 0810 smPartly Cloudy84°F64°F52%29.78
Link to 5 minute data for KOCW


Wind History from OCW
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
   
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Core Creek Bridge
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Tue -- 03:09 AM EDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:52 AM EDT     2.21 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:06 PM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:15 PM EDT     2.76 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet
12
am
1.1
1
am
0.4
2
am
-0.1
3
am
-0.3
4
am
-0.1
5
am
0.3
6
am
1
7
am
1.6
8
am
2.1
9
am
2.2
10
am
2
11
am
1.6
12
pm
1
1
pm
0.4
2
pm
-0
3
pm
-0.2
4
pm
-0.1
5
pm
0.4
6
pm
1.1
7
pm
1.9
8
pm
2.5
9
pm
2.8
10
pm
2.7
11
pm
2.3


Tide / Current for North River Bridge, North Carolina
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North River Bridge
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Tue -- 04:31 AM EDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:51 AM EDT     1.89 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:28 PM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:14 PM EDT     2.36 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

North River Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet
12
am
1.6
1
am
1
2
am
0.5
3
am
0.1
4
am
-0.2
5
am
-0.2
6
am
0.2
7
am
0.7
8
am
1.3
9
am
1.8
10
am
1.9
11
am
1.7
12
pm
1.4
1
pm
0.9
2
pm
0.5
3
pm
0.1
4
pm
-0.2
5
pm
-0.1
6
pm
0.2
7
pm
0.8
8
pm
1.5
9
pm
2.1
10
pm
2.4
11
pm
2.3


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GEOS Local Image of east us   
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Morehead City, NC,





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