Sunrise 6:01 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 12:49 PM   Moonset 1:38 AM

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AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 945 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
Overnight - W winds around 5 kt, becoming n. Waves 1 ft or less.Fri - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Fri night - E winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft. A chance of showers after midnight. Sat - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely with a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon. Sat night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Sun - E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. A chance of tstms in the morning. Showers likely. Sun night - NE winds around 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Mon - NE winds around 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. Mon night - NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the evening. Tue - NE winds around 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Tue night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 945 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - High pressure briefly builds over area waters into Friday before a low pressure system brings unsettled weather this weekend, which will lead to another round of poor boating conditions developing early next week in the wake of the low.

FXUS62 KMHX 170153 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 953 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure briefly builds overhead to end the work-week with another unsettled weekend ahead with low pressure system impacting the area into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 10 PM Thursday...No major changes with the evening update.
Winds have decoupled across the majority of the area and satellite imagery shows minimal cloud cover. With ample surface moisture from yesterday's rain, the stage is set for patchy fog to develop, especially south of HWY 64.

Previous Discussion
As of 1515 Thursday
No changes required to the near term with SFC low and its associated fronts continuing to push further offshore to the ENE as we settle into the post- frontal air mass and upper ridging building in from the W. Sea breeze develops in the afternoon, but doesn't progress too far inland due to the NW flow. There will be some convergence along the boundary which could lead to some showers popping up along the seabreeze and moving SEwardly back toward the coast and offshore this afternoon. However, moisture in the column is confined to the low levels and NWerly downsloping flow aloft should act to inhibit any stronger updrafts. Dry forecast will be continued. MaxTs ~80 away from the immediate coast, low 70s OBX, mid-upper 70s Crystal Coast Beaches. Ridging continues to approach from the S and W overnight which will lead to clearing skies and calming winds away from the coast. Sern zones currently forecast to see some patchy fog develop in the early morning hours with clearing skies and decoupling winds allowing decent rad cooling and ample SFC moisture from the rainfall we've had the last two days providing the fuel. Currently not expecting widespread dense fog, but select sheltered spots could see periods of dense fog. Lows in the upper 50s inland, low 60s for beaches. If we end up clearing completely overnight, lows might be dive deeper into the 50s and the fog footprint would be larger.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/
As of 1515 Thursday...Ridging crests over the area Friday but shortwave energy will be approaching that could aid in initiating a few showers during the afternoon, generally along the seabreeze as it migrates inland. Instability will be meager with MUCAPE less than 1kJ/kg and the ridging aloft keeping kinematics less than impressive, in turn limiting any severe potential, however a rumble of thunder or two can't be ruled out. MaxTs a few ticks warmer than Thursday for inland zones, low 80s most. Cooler Ts expected along the coast where marine air will be felt as the seabreeze penetrates further inland than Thurs.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 300 PM Thursday...Regarding the unsettled weather this weekend, deterministic, ensemble, and analog guidance all show at least a weak to modest signal for severe weather, especially on Saturday. The signal isn't as strong on Sunday, but is still present. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlooked all of Eastern NC in a "Marginal" risk of severe weather for Saturday, and this seems reasonable given all of the above. Of note, one potential complicating factor is the evolution of a warm front Friday night into Saturday, which could support an increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms Saturday morning. If this occurs, it could have an impact on how much instability can develop later in the day and into the evening. The key message here is to be aware of the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms on Saturday. We'll continue to refine the risk area and potential hazards in the coming couple of days.

Previous Discussion...High pressure will be across the area Friday but another low pressure system will impact the area this weekend. High pressure builds back in toward the middle of next week.

Friday night through Sunday night...A complex low pressure system will impact the region through the weekend. A southern stream wave will transport ample gulf moisture into the region Friday night into Saturday with sfc low pressure moving across the region late Saturday or early Sunday. The system then transitions into a vertically stack low as it slowly pushes across the Mid-Atlantic and off the coast through the latter half of the weekend. As with most cut-off systems, there are differences among the models with the evolution, timing and track with this system but unsettled weather will impact the region through much of the period. Beneficial rainfall is expected with much of the area forecast to receive around 1.5-2" with locally higher amounts possible.

Monday through Wednesday...The upper low slowly slides southward early next week with high pressure building across the Mid- Atlantic. There could be a few lingering showers into Monday but expect dry conditions into Wednesday. A mid level shortwave and attendant cold front approaches the area late Wednesday but moisture looks limited at this time with deep layer westerly flow providing subsidence to the lee of the Appalachians.

AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Thursday night/...
As of 7 PM Thursday...Pred VFR through the period. The best chance for overnight fog development continues to be southwestern terminals (OAJ), which is where the most rain has been received over the past 24 hours and where winds are expected to be the lightest. Continued to carry a mention of VFR MIFG for EWN and ISO but confidence is low in how far north and east the fog will penetrate. After the fog burns off after sunrise, VFR conditions will return. A small disturbance in the flow will increase cloud cover and lower CIGs to around 4-5kft tomorrow afternoon, which could support some showers and a few rumbles of thunder.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 330 PM Thursday...Pred VFR expected through Friday but could see isolated showers during the afternoon bringing brief periods of sub-VFR. A low pressure system will impact the area through the weekend bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions Friday night through Sunday.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/...
As of 1515 Thursday...Seas continue subsiding from 2-4ft presently becoming 2-3ft overnight. Winds currently light and variable. Overnight, winds S of Hatt become predominantly Werly 10-15kt with Nern waters seeing NNEerly winds around 10-12kt.
These Nerly winds continue working S down the coast to become Nerly 5-10kt S of Hatt, Nerly 10-15G20kt N of Hatt in the early morning hours. Seas respond to winds Fri becoming 2-4ft from N to S, 3-5ft over outer central waters.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 315 PM Thursday...High pressure will be over the waters Friday with winds generally less than 15 kt and seas around 2-4 ft, but could be locally higher near the Gulf Stream. A complex low pressure system will impact the region Friday night through Sunday bringing unsettled weather through the period. Guidance for the most part keeping conditions below SCA criteria through Saturday night as low pressure transits the Southeast. The best opportunity for SCA conditions will develop sometime Sunday and continue into early next week with N to NE winds as low pressure deepens as it pulls offshore. There are differences among the models the timing and track of this system, so be sure to follow updates as details come into focus.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Core Creek Bridge
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Thu -- 02:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 04:07 AM EDT     1.84 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:43 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:40 PM EDT     1.87 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:10 PM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

North River Bridge
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Thu -- 02:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:06 AM EDT     1.58 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 12:05 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:48 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:39 PM EDT     1.60 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

North River Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

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Morehead City, NC,