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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 824 Pm Pst Wed Nov 29 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday afternoon through late Friday night...
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 11 seconds.
Thu..Western portion, nw winds 10 to 15 kt becoming 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Eastern portion, ne winds 5 to 10 kt becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 3 to 5 ft dominant period 10 seconds, building to 5 to 7 ft dominant period 9 seconds in the afternoon.
Thu night..Western portion, nw winds 25 to 30 kt becoming 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Eastern portion, W winds 20 to 25 kt becoming nw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Combined seas 7 to 9 ft dominant period 8 seconds.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 25 kt, becoming 20 to 30 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Strongest western portion. Combined seas 7 to 9 ft dominant period 9 seconds.
Fri night..Western portion, nw winds 20 to 30 kt becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Eastern portion, nw winds 15 to 20 kt becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Combined seas 7 to 9 ft dominant period 9 seconds, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft dominant period 10 seconds after midnight.
Sat..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 4 to 6 ft dominant period 11 seconds.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 10 seconds.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 5 ft.

PZZ600 824 Pm Pst Wed Nov 29 2023
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park...at 03z or 7 pm pst, a 1012 mb surface low was centered about 80 nm northwest of san luis obispo with a front extending to the south. This frontal system will move across the coastal waters today and this evening. Gusty northwesterly winds will increase across the coastal waters on Thursday, possibly reaching gale force from pt. Sal south to san nicolas island.

FXUS66 KHNX 292144 AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 144 PM PST Wed Nov 29 2023


SYNOPSIS
Slight chance of light rain is possible along the Coastal Range and western portion of the San Joaquin Valley today. An incoming disturbance will increase the chances of rain in the San Joaquin Valley and snow over the Sierra Crest Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Winds will increase over the southern Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains associated with the aforementioned disturbance.

DISCUSSION
Current satellite imagery depicts mid and high level clouds moving over the region associated with a shortwave trough that is currently stationed over California. There is a slight chance for the moisture starved system to produce rain showers along the Coastal Range and western portion of the San Joaquin Valley. Local model guidance illustrates a 10-20 percent chance that rain reaches the valley today, with any chances for precipitation decreasing significantly in the early afternoon hours.

A more moisture laden, cold core trough, will dive southeast from the Gulf of Alaska, making its way over the Pacific NW and West Coast Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. This system will increase the chances for precipitation over the central portion San Joaquin Valley, central and southern Kern County, as well as the Sierra Nevada Range. Short range deterministic models and ensembles depict a 30-40% chance of rain from Thursday afternoon into very early Friday morning, with trace amounts expected over the SJV. In central and southern Kern County, there are similar chances for rain late Thursday night into early Friday morning.
Amounts will range from one tenth to a quarter inch of precip, with rain below 4600 feet and snow above the aforementioned height. Due to the orientation of the system, the Sierra Nevada communities have a greater chance of seeing precipitation. Snow levels will range from 6500 feet at the onset of precipitation Thursday morning over the northern Sierra's and dropping to around 4600 feet by the end of the event early Friday morning.
Although there is a higher chance for precipitation, amounts look to remain fairly low, with generally less than an inch of snow in most locations outside of Yosemite Valley, Tuolumne Meadows and Tioga pass area. The following are probabilities for one inch or more of snow Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening for select locations:

Tioga Pass - 66% Tuolumne Meadows - 71% Yosemite National Park - 53% Hetchy Hetchy - 48% Lodgepole - 44% Wawona - 31% Cedar Grove - 26%

The trough will also tighten the pressure gradient, increasing the winds over the Tehachapi Range and southern Sierra Nevada Mountains. Max gusts above 40 mph are expected Thursday afternoon into Friday morning, however not expecting winds to reach advisory levels at this time. Winds taper off with the passing of the system.

Following the passing of the trough, a more zonal flow will dominate the region over the weekend; keeping unsettled weather well north of the state and allowing more seasonal temperatures to be ushered in. Medium range models and ensemble clusters depict an amplified ridge building in over the region early next week, warming temperatures above climatological norms.

AVIATION...
MVFR conditions are possible in portions of the San Joaquin Valley until after 13Z Thursday morning due to mist and haze.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across Central California for at least the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Wednesday November 29 2023, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings, and Madera Counties. Burning Discouraged in Merced and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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