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AMZ136 Pamlico And Pungo Rivers- 148 Pm Est Tue Nov 28 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
This afternoon..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves choppy.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves light chop.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves light chop, diminishing to flat in the afternoon.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon and evening, then becoming sw after midnight. Waves light chop, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon and evening, then diminishing to light chop after midnight. A chance of showers.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming w. Waves light chop. A chance of showers.

AMZ100 148 Pm Est Tue Nov 28 2023
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters.. A dry backdoor cold front will cross the area late today, with strong high pressure building in from the south and west through midweek. A series of storm systems will then impact the area beginning Friday into the weekend.

FXUS62 KMHX 281855 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 155 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
A dry backdoor cold front will cross the area today, with strong high pressure building in from the south and west through midweek. The emergence of the high pressure will result in cold and dry conditions into Friday. A series of storm systems will then impact the area beginning Friday into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 0145 PM Tuesday...Temperatures have risen to the high 40s and low 50s during this update as we near high temperatures for the day. A reinforcing shot of cold air will surge into the area behind a dry, backdoor cold front later today, with the leading edge of the cold front approaching our NW zones. The cold front is evident in current obs by a slight wind shift and few to scattered Cu creeping in from the NW. The airmass behind this front will be the coldest so far this fall. Winds coming from the NW are gusting up to 35mph along the OBX and 20-30mph inland, with peak gusts expected over the next couple hours.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/
As of 0145 PM Tuesday...Near record low temps are expected overnight as the cold airmass settles across the Carolinas. Have increased low temperatures by a few degrees with this update following the recent trend in guidance, bottoming out at 20 degrees inland. Gusty winds will diminish rapidly in the evening with inland locations likely to decouple by late evening resulting in strong radiational cooling and plummeting temps overnight.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 3 AM Tuesday...High pressure builds into the area through mid week bringing dry weather and temps well below normal. High pressure slides offshore late in the week with a more active pattern expected to develop through the weekend.

Wednesday through Thursday...Broad cyclonic flow persists across the eastern CONUS Wednesday with sfc high pressure becoming centered across the Southeast. A mid-level shortwave will move through Wednesday night serving to reinforce CAA and bringing a bit more high clouds across the region but otherwise the airmass will be very dry with PW values less than a quarter inch. Temps will be well below normal through Wednesday night with lows in the 20s inland and 30s along the coast and highs in the mid 40s to around 50. Temps moderate back to near normal on Thursday as the upper trough begins to lift nwd and sfc high pressure begins to slide offshore.

Friday through Monday...A more active pattern develops late in the week as the southern stream jet becomes dominant across the southern CONUS and a series of systems lifts across the area.
Guidance a bit faster bringing precip back across the area on Friday but overall the typical timing, strength and available moisture differences remain among the models. Continue to generally follow NBM guidance but limited PoPs to chance giving the differences. Temps are expected to be above normal this period.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 0100 PM Tuesday...High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period as dry high pressure builds over the area over the next several days. Gusty NW winds to 20 kt are expected through late this afternoon with winds subsiding to near calm inland overnight. Canopy of high Cirrus clouds has mostly shifted offshore, with few to scattered Cumulus clouds with bases around 5-6k ft moving into Pitt and Martin counties from the NW associated with the back door cold front. Looks too dry for any fog though the cold temps could prompt some shallow "steam" fog near bodies of water late tonight.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 3 AM Tuesday...High pressure builds into the area through the middle of the week bringing pred VFR conditions but temps will be quite cold and could see early morning steam fog along water ways bringing occasional sub-VFR conditions at the usual terminals, PGV and EWN, especially Wednesday morning when temps will be at their coldest. A more active pattern develops across the area late in the week and could see showers develop Friday with sub-VFR conditions possible.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 540 AM Tuesday...SCA's are in effect for all of the waters today and tonight as cold advection behind a dry, backdoor front results in strong NW winds which peak around 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt this afternoon and evening. Since the flow will be offshore, the shorter fetch /20 nm/ will result in the highest seas around 6 ft occurring over the outer waters.
The strong winds are forecast to diminish to 10-15 kt after 6Z tonight with seas subsiding to 2-5 ft by sunrise Wed morning.

LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...High pressure builds into the area through the middle of the week with a low pressure system impacting the area late in the week.

Winds diminish to 5-15 kt Wednesday but another shortwave pushes through Wednesday night with winds briefly increasing to 10-20 kt. Winds then diminish to 5-10 kt Thursday while backing to SW as the high moves offshore. Seas around 2-4 ft early Wednesday morning will subside to 1-3 ft Wednesday afternoon through early Friday, but will build to 2-4 ft Wednesday night with a brief surge in Wly winds. A low pressure system will approach from the west late in the week and will see Sly winds increase to 15-20+ kt on Friday into Friday night with seas building to 4-7 ft. Improving conditions expected Saturday with the area between wx systems.

CLIMATE
Record Low temps for 11/29 (Wednesday)

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 23/1967 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras 29/2014 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville 17/1930 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City 24/2002 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston 16/1901 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville 24/2002 (KNCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ131- 135>137-150-152-154-156-158-230-231.

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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:56 AM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:18 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:11 AM EST     2.58 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:56 PM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:51 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:29 PM EST     1.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

Newport River
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:39 AM EST     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:18 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 08:55 AM EST     3.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:39 PM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:51 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:13 PM EST     2.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Newport River, North Carolina, Tide feet

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Morehead City, NC,