Monday, January20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Chocowinity, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:25PM Monday January 20, 2020 6:11 AM EST (11:11 UTC) Moonrise 3:23AMMoonset 1:50PM Illumination 23% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 600 Am Est Mon Jan 20 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday morning...
.gale watch in effect from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning...
Today..N winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt late this morning and afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Tue night..N winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Wed..N winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to around 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 3 ft.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri..NE winds around 10 kt, becoming se 15 to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft, then around 2 ft. A chance of showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chocowinity, NC
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location: 35.51, -77.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 201100 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 600 AM EST Mon Jan 20 2020

SYNOPSIS. Cold high pressure will prevail across the region for most of the week. Low pressure and its associated cold front will impact the area next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 600 AM Monday . No changes to previous thinking. Strong surface high pressure (currently around 1045 mb) will continue to slowly build over the area from the NW through tonight. Associated cold, dry advection will persist, resulting in windy, cold, and clear (inland) conditions across Eastern NC. Highs today will struggle to break 40 degrees in many locations while a brisk North wind reminds us it is still winter. Along the Outer Banks skies should become mostly cloudy as stratocumulus clouds develop due to low level moisture advection off the ocean. Highs will only be in the upper 30s to lower 40s which is 10-15 deg below climo.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/. As of 245 AM Monday . Arctic high pressure centered over the upper Mid-West will extend southeast across the Carolinas tonight with continued cold advection. The pressure gradient will tighten overnight in response to falling pressures over the southwest Atlantic resulting in brisk northerly flow continuing. The wind in combination with temps bottoming out in the low to mid 20s inland will produce cold Wind Chill values around 10 degrees early Tue. While skies remain clear inland, partly to mostly cloudy skies will prevail across the Outer Banks where a stray light shower will be possible south of Oregon Inlet where temps are forecast to remain just above freezing and isolated to scattered Gulfstream showers could clip the coast.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 3 AM Mon . Settled and cold conditions persist into Thursday ahead of the next storm system, which will impact the area Thursday night into the weekend.

Tuesday through Thursday . Upper low passes south of the area and off the Southeast coast on Tuesday, prompting the development of a surface low well off the Florida coast late Tuesday into Wednesday. Locally, high pressure building in from the west will keep a very dry profile in place for most of the area, while a weak coastal trough extending northward from the aforementioned low will bring modest low level moisture to the immediate coast from Cape Lookout to Hatteras Island. While the majority of shower or storm activity associated with this trough will remain along the edge of the Gulf Stream, a few showers could work back over the southern OBX Tuesday and Tuesday night. Additionally, the gradient will tighten as the high encroaches from the west and the trough remains parked offshore, with gusty north winds on tap, especially for the Outer Banks, later Tuesday through Tuesday night.

CAA will remain strong through midweek, with highs Tuesday near 40 away from the beaches, and lows once again well into the 20s for most Tuesday night. Airmass moderation begins as the high builds closer Wednesday, but temps will still be several degrees below normal despite mostly sunny skies.

The ridge will move overhead Thursday, bringing lighter winds/weaker CAA and continued mostly clear conditions aside from some cirrus streaming overhead. Temps will be within a couple degrees of normal.

Friday and Saturday . Friday will be a transition day as heights aloft fall in response to troughing digging across the central US. At the surface, ridging will slide offshore as a complex frontal system works toward the eastern seaboard. Moisture transport will bring increasingly clouds, with rain chances dependent on the erosion of mid-level dry air/subsidence, which looks to persist through the day Friday, limiting POPs to slight chance in the forecast. However, deep moisture transport ensues by Friday evening, with high-end chance POPs in the forecast ahead of the approaching frontal system Friday night and Saturday. While specifics of the system remain uncertain, as longer range guidance is inconclusive about the track of the surface low and the potential for a secondary low/wave to develop closer to the area, confidence is beginning to increase in the general timing of the precip. Additionally, ensemble guidance indicates that most solutions bring instability into the area ahead of the primary front Saturday, and slight chance thunder has been introduced into the forecast for the eastern half of the area.

Sunday . Mild high pressure builds in from the southwest Sunday into early next week, resulting in mainly dry conditions and near- seasonable temps.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Short Term /through Tonight/ . As of 600 AM Monday . Strong high pressure will extend over NC from the NW through tonight with clear skies and brisk winds at times. Expect N winds gusting up to 20 kt through early this afternoon and again after midnight tonight. The airmass will remain too dry and well mixed for fog early this morning and overnight.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/ . As of 330 AM Mon . VFR conditions and mostly clear skies prevail into Friday. Gusty north to northeast winds are possible at times later Tuesday into Tuesday night.

MARINE. Short Term /through Tonight/ . As of 600 AM Monday..No changes to previous thinking. Continue the SCA's for the coastal waters and Sounds. Gusty winds and elevated seas will continue through the period as cold high pressure gradually builds over the waters producing strong CAA through tonight. This will result in N winds 20-25 kt with higher gusts through tonight. Across the northern waters and Albemarle Sound region, winds are forecast to briefly diminish to 10-20 kt this afternoon and early evening, then increase back to 15-25 kt again late this evening. 5-8 ft seas early this morning will briefly subside to 4-7 ft late today, then rebuild to 5-9 ft by early Tue.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/ . As of 330 AM Mon . High pressure pushing into the area from the west as low pressure develops well off the Southeast coast will result in a tightening of the gradient Tuesday. Given the cold airmass advecting into the area, stronger winds should mix readily to the surface, brining solid gales to the coastal waters and larger inland waterways later Tuesday through Tuesday night. Seas build Tuesday and Tuesday night, peaking around 6-12 ft early Wednesday morning. Conditions will gradually improve Wednesday into Thursday as the high builds overhead, but elevated seas persist across the coastal waters mainly south of Oregon Inlet. Winds begin to veer and increase Friday as the high moves offshore and a frontal system approaches from the west.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 5 AM Mon . Gusty north to northeast winds Tuesday into Wednesday morning could cause minor water level rises across the southern Pamlico Sound from Hatteras Island to the Lower Neuse River, with inundation of around 1 ft or less possible for very low lying areas. Additionally, low pressure moving from off the Southeast coast toward the central Atlantic could result in elevated tide levels on the ocean and near inlets mid-week into the weekend.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning for AMZ135-152-154-156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ135-152- 154-156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ131-230- 231. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ150.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . JME SHORT TERM . JME LONG TERM . BM/CB AVIATION . JME/CB MARINE . JME/CB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . MHX


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 59 mi60 min 36°F 55°F1021.9 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 68 mi72 min N 18 G 22 35°F 1021.8 hPa (+1.5)26°F

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Washington, Warren Field Airport, NC4 mi17 minN 010.00 miFair29°F15°F55%1024 hPa
Pitt-Greenville Airport, NC19 mi17 minNNW 410.00 miFair30°F19°F64%1024.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOCW

Wind History from OCW (wind in knots)
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NW6N6N8CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS8
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Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:20 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:03 AM EST     2.09 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:47 AM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:49 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:21 PM EST     1.61 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:23 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 11:40 PM EST     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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00.511.61.92.121.71.20.70.3-0-0.10.10.511.41.61.61.30.90.50.1-0.2

Tide / Current Tables for Newport River (Yacht Club), North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.