Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Chocowinity, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:57PM Sunday December 8, 2019 12:52 PM EST (17:52 UTC) Moonrise 2:55PMMoonset 3:21AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 1019 Am Est Sun Dec 8 2019
Rest of today..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely with isolated tstms after midnight.
Mon..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Mon night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Waves around 3 ft. A chance of rain. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chocowinity, NC
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location: 35.51, -77.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 081145 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 645 AM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

SYNOPSIS. A warm front will move north through the area tonight into Monday. A strong cold front will move through Tuesday night and early Wednesday. High pressure will build north of the area through late next week, with another system likely impacting the area late week into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /TODAY/. As of 645 AM Sun . Latest sfc analysis shows strong 1034mb high pressure centered over the NE US, extending southward into the Carolinas. Shortwave ridging will continue as surface high slowly pushes off the NE coast through the day. As the high moves eastward, a coastal trough will back toward the area through the day and will see increasing clouds with isolated to scattered showers moving onshore this afternoon and evening, mainly south of Highway 70. With CAA waning, temps will be a few degrees warmer than yday with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s, warmest along the coast.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/. As of 245 AM Sun . High pressure to the north will continue to move east tonight, as a weak coastal trough/warm front develops along the SE coast. The warm front will lift north through the area tonight into Mon. The front coupled, with deepening mid level trough, shortwave energy and deeper moisture will lead to widespread showers and possibly a few tstms along the coast overnight. Pwat values less than 0.5" Sun morning will increase to around 1.25" tonight. Mild overnight with clouds and precip, lows expected in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Will likely see a non- diurnal temp curve overnight for most locations, with temps increasing behind the front as S/SE flow develops.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 3 AM Sun . Periods of unsettled weather is expected through much of the long term period, with roller coaster temps as progressive/amplified weather pattern is expected.

Monday . Weak coastal trough/warm front will likely be impacted eastern portions of E NC for the start of Monday, before a drying trend commences by the second half of the day. Have hung onto likely pops for ern areas through around noon, before trending down through second half of the day. Highs will be warm with srly flow 10-15 mph, with readings climbing well above climo in the 70 degree range most locales.

Monday night through Tuesday . Period of dry weather and very warm temps expected Mon night and Tue. In fact could see some record highs threatened on Tue as highs flirt with the 80 degree mark, which makes sense given fcst low lvl thicknesses soaring to around 1380M.

Tuesday night through Wednesday . More widespread shower activity is expected again Tuesday night into early Wed. Best chances of rain will be interior areas, where fgen is maximized late night into early Wed. Further east, chances of rain are in question as forcing will be n and w of the coast, and have capped pops in the 30-40% range. The strong cold front will push through the area by Wed morning, with dry conditions returning for the afternoon hours. Temps will swing to the other side of climo, and only reach the 50s behind the front Wed afternoon.

Wednesday night through Thursday . Strong high pressure will build in from the north with much cooler and drier air Wed night and Thursday with highs Thu only in the 40s. Widespread lows near or below freezing Thursday morning. GFS is a big outlier with weather on Thur, and have discounted this wet soln, as more consistent ECMWF has support from the UKMET and CMC. Have indicated only a 20 pop as some light showers may migrate in towards the coast, but generally expecting dry conditions.

Friday through Saturday . Rain chances inc Thur night and esp Fri through Sat as deep srly flow increases with digging long wave trough across the lower MS River Valley, which will spur several areas of low pressure along the eastern seaboard. Have inc pops to 50-70% this time frame as looks quite unsettled through at least Sat. Widespread moderate to heavy rain will be possible. Depending on exact track of said low pressure areas, there could be potential for strong to even severe storms if storm tracks are inland.

AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Short Term /through tonight/ . As of 645 AM Sun . VFR conditions currently across the terminals early this morning. VFR should prevail through early this afternoon, with ceilings lowering to MVFR late this afternoon and this evening ahead of a strengthening warm front. Increasing shower chances this afternoon, becoming widespread tonight into Monday morning. Widespread sub-VFR conditions likely tonight into Mon morning, with potential for periods of IFR. LAMP and HREF in good agreement showing high potential for IFR ceilings after 06z tonight.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/ . As of 3 AM Sun . Unsettled weather is expected Tue night through Wednesday morning with gusty winds, scattered showers and periods of sub- VFR conditions likely. Dry weather returns second half of Wed through Thu.

MARINE. Short Term /through tonight/ . As of 645 AM Sun . Latest obs show gusty NE winds 15-25 kt (strongest south of Lookout) with seas 4-6 ft. SCAs continue for the coastal waters. Strong high pressure to the north will gradually slide eastward today and tonight, as warm front to the south strengthens and lifts north through the waters tonight into Monday morning. Winds will slowly diminish late this morning and afternoon, becoming NE/E 10-20 kt with seas subsiding below 6 ft. The window for seas below 6 ft will be small however, with SE winds increasing to 15-25 kt tonight allowing seas to build to 5-9 ft. Could see a few gusts to 25 kt in the Pamlico Sound late tonight and early Monday morning, but not confident enough at this time for SCA headline.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/ . As of 3 AM Sun . Still no changes to previous thinking with an active weather pattern expected through the end of next week which will result in hazardous boating conditions with strong winds and elevated seas AOA 6 ft through the period. Winds Mon expected to be S 20-30 kts over the coastal waters, and may remain below SCA for the sounds and rivers if high res meso models are correct. Will have to monitor for potential inc in winds for sounds and rivers, but right now keeping winds sub SCA. Winds will shift N/NW 15-25 kt with higher gusts behind the front late Wed night and continue through Thu, with even the sounds likely to receive SCA winds.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for AMZ152-154- 156-158. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 7 PM EST Thursday for AMZ150.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . CQD SHORT TERM . CQD LONG TERM . JME/TL AVIATION . CQD/TL MARINE . CQD/TL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 59 mi53 min NNE 7 G 11 56°F 52°F1027.8 hPa (-1.0)
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 68 mi53 min E 15 G 16 63°F 1027.6 hPa (-1.2)55°F

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Washington, Warren Field Airport, NC4 mi58 minNE 710.00 miOvercast56°F41°F58%1029.5 hPa
Pitt-Greenville Airport, NC19 mi58 minNE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy52°F37°F58%1029.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOCW

Wind History from OCW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7NE8N10NE6NE5NE4NE5NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5N3NE8NE6NE7NE8
1 day agoSW4W4SW5SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N8N11NE9N8N13NE10
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Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:19 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 05:43 AM EST     2.11 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:20 PM EST     0.29 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:54 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:55 PM EST     1.85 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.40.81.31.822.11.91.61.20.80.50.30.30.611.41.81.91.71.410.60.3

Tide / Current Tables for Newport River (Yacht Club), North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.