Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chocowinity, NC

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 8:25PM Thursday July 18, 2019 5:21 PM EDT (21:21 UTC) Moonrise 8:49PMMoonset 6:32AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 357 Pm Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft in the evening, then 1 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW winds around 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the evening.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft, then 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chocowinity, NC
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location: 35.51, -77.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 181946
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
346 pm edt Thu jul 18 2019

Synopsis
The area will remain between subtropical high pressure offshore
and a weak troughing inland through early next week. A front
will approach and stall near the area by the middle of next
week.

Near term tonight
As of 1015 am thu... The latest meso-analysis showing a high
pressure well offshore and an inland trough, while the
shortwave trough axis is over central nc this afternoon. Most of
this morning's clouds reduced the chance for the sea breeze to
fully develop... Therefore showers and thunderstorms chances
reduced... But most of the latest hi-res models are showing sea
breeze convection to develop from belhaven to manteo later this
afternoon which the latest radar returns are supporting. Plus,
there is a good chance of showers and thunderstorms to move in
from the west as the trough axis shifts across enc this evening.

Shortwave will gradually breakdown into more of a generally
weakness in the trough aloft tonight. Deep layer moisture and
conditional instability will keep at least a mention of slight
chance pops in the forecast overnight, with greatest chances
near the greater low level lapse rates over the ocean. Generally
warm and muggy conditions with lows in the mid upper 70s inland
to around 80 degrees along the coast.

Short term Friday
As of 330 pm thurs... More of the same pattern with sfc high
pressure well offshore and inland trough, while heights aloft
gradually build back in. The main story for tomorrow will be the
heat and humid... Will issue a heat advisory for the area,
except for the outer banks (at this time). Expect widely
scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop
mainly along the sea breeze as the atmosphere is quite unstable.

Expect highs in the mid to upper 90s inland and upper 80s to
low 90's along the obx.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
As of 305 pm Thursday... The long term period will be
characterized by mainly zonal upper level flow across the
northern CONUS with the southern u.S. Stuck under a broad ridge
through the end of the week. By the beginning of next week, a
deepening low over the gulf of alaska will help promote a more
amplified pattern across the CONUS with strong ridging over the
west and a deepening trough over the east. The resultant impacts
to eastern nc weather is a typical summer surface pattern into
early next week with high pressure over the western atlantic and
a trough of low pressure inland. By the end of the period, the
more pronounced upper troughing will help push a front into the
region and increase precip coverage.

Saturday and Sunday... Continued hot and very humid for the weekend
with similar temperatures both days. Thicknesses increase
with 850 mb temps reaching 20+ c across eastern nc. As the upper
level trough begins to amplify to the west. Heights will fall
some Sunday, but temperatures will be very similar. Expect highs
over the weekend to average in the mid to upper 90s. Dew points
remain high and heat indices will range 105 to 110. Scattered
convection is possible along the sea breeze each day but with
the ridge firmly in control coverage will be limited. Capping
pops at 30% for the period.

Monday thru wed... A break in the heat is finally in sight as
the upper level trough amplifies, dropping heights across the
region and helping to usher a front south across the mid-
atlantic and into the carolinas by mid-week. While there are
still model differences regarding timing and progression of the
front Tuesday into Wednesday, guidance agreement has increased
and have increased pops to likely for Tuesday into Tuesday
night, with likelies continuing along the coast for Wednesday.

The front will be accompanied with deep moisture and a
pronounced mid-level shortwave. It should be noted the front is
expected to stall with plenty of moisture (pwats of 2+ inches)
and multiple subtle lobes of mid-level vorticity riding along
the boundary. Thus some respectable rainfall totals are
possible, although the question of where the front stalls
remains unanswered. Behind the front highs will struggle to
crack 90, and fall even further by the middle of the week.

Aviation 19z Thursday through Tuesday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 2 pm thurs... High confidence inVFR conditions will
dominate the most of the TAF period. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop most to the
west of the area, but is expected to move into inland TAF sites
late afternoon early evening. These storms may bring brief heavy
rain which will result in reduced vsby and ceiling heights.

Tonight... Mid to high clouds and light SW winds expected to
limit fog development again tonight, but there is a chance for
low stratus to develop, but confidence is low. Expect more
showers thunderstorms for tomorrow afternoon with cloud deck aob
5kft and SW 5-10 knots.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday ...

as of 250 pm Thursday... Typical summertime pattern this period
with high pressure offshore and a trough of low pressure inland,
with mainly isolated showers and thunderstorms Saturday and
Sunday. As ridge shifts farther offshore on Monday may see an
uptick in convection. A cold front will approach from the
northwest late Monday, helping to focus showers thunderstorms
along it as it crosses into eastern nc through Tuesday. Patchy
fog or stratus will be possible early each morning, especially
any areas that receive rain.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 330 pm thu... The latest buoy obs are showing SW winds
15-20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots and seas are 2-3 north of
oregon inlet and 4-5 ft south. Expect southwesterly winds to
continue with wind gusts reaching up to 30 kt late this evening.

A small craft advisory remains in effect for the coastal waters
and sounds south of oregon inlet, with the potential for
occasional winds to 25 kt across the croatan and roanoke sounds
through late afternoon, but the duration too short to justify
inclusion in the sca. The SW gusty winds will gradually diminish
overnight, but SW 15-20 knot will continue through Friday. Seas
will gradually build to 4 to 6 ft tonight, and subside Friday
morning to 3-5 ft.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday ...

as of 255 pm Thursday... The pressure gradient will relax some
Friday night through Sunday with winds dropping to 10 to 20 kts
and seas 3 to 5 ft. A cold front will approach from the
northwest late Monday into Monday night, increasing the pressure
gradient across the waters with SW winds increase again to 15
to 25 kt Monday with seas 4-6 ft, highest for the central
coastal waters. The front shifts closer to eastern nc waters on
Tuesday, shifting the strongest gradient farther offshore,
allowing SW winds to diminish 10-20 kt and seas mostly 3-4 ft.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Heat advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for ncz029-044>047-
079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.

Heat advisory from 11 am to 7 pm edt Friday for ncz029-044>047-
079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Friday for amz135.

Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Friday for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Friday for amz156-158.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Bm
short term... Bm
long term... Dag ms
aviation... Dag bm
marine... Dag bm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 59 mi51 min SSW 13 G 18 85°F 87°F1015.6 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 68 mi81 min SSW 16 G 22 85°F 1014.9 hPa (-1.2)79°F

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Washington, Warren Field Airport, NC4 mi26 minWSW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy95°F73°F50%1013.2 hPa
Pitt-Greenville Airport, NC19 mi26 minWSW 910.00 miFair95°F73°F50%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from OCW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9S7S8S6S4S6S6--------------S7SW8SW8S7SW9SW10SW11
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1 day agoSE5SE7CalmCalmCalmS4S5S4S3S4S4S3S3S4SW7SW9SW8SW8SW9
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2 days agoN5E5E3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S4SW6SW6CalmS6S6S5SE3

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
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Thu -- 05:00 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:41 AM EDT     2.00 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:54 PM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:56 PM EDT     2.30 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.610.50.20.10.20.61.11.61.921.81.410.60.20.10.30.71.31.82.22.3

Tide / Current Tables for Newport River (Yacht Club), North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.