NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
As of 630 PM Friday...

- Localized heavy rain/flooding risk continues into early this evening

The cold front appears to be stalled over the Crystal Coast early this evening, gradually moving south of the area in the next few hours. PW's continue well above 2" today and with upper level divergence due to the right entrance region providing ample lift for showers and iso thunderstorms with torrential downpours, especially along and south of Highway 70 and over the south/central coastal waters. Heaviest rain now offshore may impact the Crystal Coast over the next hour or two.
Think this current activity should begin to weaken and decrease in coverage around 00Z with the loss of heating. Will allow Flood Watch to expire at 7 PM, with the threat becoming much more localized.

Overnight there is a question of how soon the dry air makes it to the coast. Inland, drier air filters in late this evening and overnight with very little no significant precipitation expected after midnight. Along the southeast coast to the southern Outer Banks however, the forecast becomes more murky as an area of low pressure is forecast to develop along the front which will be just south of our area. Some of the guidance is indicating that another area of showers/possible thunderstorms developing late this evening into early Sat morning. Therefore will have high chance-low likely PoPs in these areas for much of tonight.

Widespread low clouds are expected to develop after midnight in the still moist low level easterly flow. Could see patchy fog as well but think there will be enough mixing and cloud cover to inhibit widespread dense fog. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
As of 345 PM Friday...Will reluctantly hold on to a low chance PoP immediate coast Sat morning in case the wetter guidance is correct, but overall expect pleasant summer day with lower humidity as dewpoints drop into the 60s for the first time in a long time with NE flow prevailing. The morning is expected to start out cloudy then expect afternoon sunshine with pleasant highs in the low to mid 70s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 315 AM Fri...Drier pattern sets up for the weekend before returning to a more typical summertime pattern of scattered, diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms through the next work week.

Sat night through Mon...Upper trough will depart off the eastern seaboard, eventually leaving behind a cutoff low off the coast of the mid-Atlantic, which will retreat back into New England to start the week. The surface cold front will be offshore at the surface as high pressure builds in its wake, sticking around only for the weekend before moving back over the Atlantic on Monday. Dry conditions will prevail as dry air and subsidence spill over the Carolinas thanks to northerly flow aloft. Conditions will feel more comfortable compared to the past several days as dew points drop into the low to mid-60s, especially across the coastal plain, while highs top out in the mid to upper 80s - slightly below average for late July. Muggier conditions hold strong along the coast.

Tues through Thur...Any semblance of ridging aloft breaks down after Monday as the cutoff low continues to meander westward before being absorbed by the northern stream shortwave. This will leave a general troughing pattern over the eastern CONUS for the remainder of the week, meaning moist southwesterly flow returns along with a more typical summertime regime characterized by diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms.
Support aloft will not be nearly as strong, and moisture not as anomalous as the previous several days, so climo PoPs are appropriate for ENC starting Tuesday. Mid-level heights rise above average, and temperatures gradually follow suit, increasing to near-normal readings in the low 90s by the end of the period.

AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 630 PM Friday...

- Widespread IFR/MVFR conditions expected through early Sat

Currently a mix of MVFR and VFR across the terminals. The shower activity should dissipate by midnight then moist easterly flow behind the cold front is expected to result in the development of widespread IFR ceilings after midnight. Some patchy fog is also possible but is not expected to be widespread. The low clouds are forecast to persist until late Sat morning then drier air filtering in will mix them out with a return to VFR conditions between 15-18Z.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 320 AM Fro...Primarily VFR conditions are forecast from Sun into early next week as high pressure settles into the area.
Fog and low stratus are possible each night, although the likelihood is higher starting Tuesday as high pressure moves offshore and deeper moisture returns.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 630 PM Friday...

- Thunderstorm risk continues into tonight

- Possible SCA conditions Sat afternoon into Sat night for the southern and central waters

A cold front, currently vicinity of Cape Lookout will move south and through the remainder of the waters late this evening.
On Sat, low pressure will develop along the front early then move NE away from the waters in the afternoon into early evening. Ahead of the front over the southern waters late today winds are SSW 10-15 kt with E winds 5-15 kt occurring behind the front over the sounds and central and northern waters.
Tonight winds all waters will become NE 10-15 kt with seas around 3 ft.

The marine weather Sat will depend on the strength and track of the developing low with the potential for SCA conditions over the southern and central waters. Some guidance has winds as high as 20-25 kt (with seas 6-8 ft) while the majority of the models indicate NE winds 15-20 kt and seas 3 to 5 ft. Have sided with the majority solution and have conditions just below advisory conditions. We will continue to monitor and a SCA may need to be issued in subsequent forecasts.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Tuesday/...
As of 320 AM Fri...No hazardous marine conditions are anticipated in the long term. High pressure builds back over the waters behind the front Sat night and Sunday before quickly moving offshore on Monday, resulting in winds returning to a more typical south- to- southwesterly flow to start the work week. Outside of the NE surge behind the front Sat evening, winds in the long term will remain around 5-10 kt, with typical increases in late afternoons as thermal gradients increase. Seas peak at 4-5 feet on Sat and Sun before returning to 2-3 feet on Monday.

HYDROLOGY
As of 630 PM Friday...Today is expected to be the final day with the potential for excessive rainfall across ENC, as a cold front moves through, and finally offshore, by late tonight.
Rainfall rates in excess of 1"/hr will be supportive of flash flooding today, especially in areas where soils are most susceptible, and where FFG values are low. Will allow Flood Watch to expire early this evening with heavy rain threat being much more localized. After today, attention then turns to river flooding, as mainstem rivers respond to all of the rain over the past several days.

A Flood Warning is currently in effect for the Trent River in Jones County.

Stay tuned in case additional river flood warnings/products are needed through this weekend.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Flood Watch until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ090>092-094- 193>196-198-199-204-205.
MARINE...None.