Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Washington Park, NC

NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/
As of 10 PM Sun...Latest obs shows backdoor front sinking southward through the area this evening, bisecting the forecast area. The front will continue to push south tonight, as a second high builds to our north, which will increase cloud cover, veer the winds to the E/NE, and noticeably drop temperatures north of Highway 264. Subsidence aloft and an overall lack of moisture in the column continues to support a dry forecast.

Back door cold front is expected to fizzle out near hwy 70 tonight as high to our north shifts near the NE coast and eventually offshore, allowing winds to become southerly again through the night. Low level cloud cover increases as a belt of low level moisture spreads over the region. This will help keep low temps near 60 for much of the region through tonight. Areas along and south of wherever the back door cold front fizzles out will have higher dewpoints for tonight as winds become light to calm. This introduces chances of patchy fog for the early morning hours, with best chances along and south of hwy 70.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY/
As of 245 PM Sunday...Low pressure deepens over the Midwest as it lifts NE'ward through Monday, meanwhile high pressure over much of the eastern seaboard shifts offshore. Cold front from the low over the Midwest advances east of the Mississippi loses steam as it encounters the high. This sets us up for a more prolonged unsettled period in the long term. Looking at Monday however, we will have warm day with mid-high clouds and highs in the low to mid 80s inland, 70s for beaches. Southerly flow 10-20 mph will help accelerate the sea breeze through the afternoon and evening hours.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 3 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal warmth through Saturday

- Wavy frontal boundary will result in a more unsettled period Tuesday-Friday

Synoptically, the surface and upper level pattern this week more resembles that of a mid to late summer setup, with weak flow aloft and southwest Atlantic ridging dominating. However, it's a summer time pattern with early spring instability and moisture (often lower than the summer).

Upper ridging is forecast to break down/flatten some this week, allowing more of a zonal flow aloft to develop across the Mid- Atlantic region. Within this flow, a weak frontal boundary is forecast to meander bringing unsettled weather through much of the long term.

Tuesday high pressure is located to our south, with a low pressure to our NW. Through the day Tuesday, low shifts to our N. as a cold front extending from the low encounters the high, and stalls. The front starts off with a SW-NE orientation while to our West Tuesday, then becomes more W-E orientation over NC as low moves to our north. While the low moves offshore of the Northeast US early Wednesday the high pressure continues to linger, and with no other synoptic feature moving in the boundary continues to linger over the region through much of the work week. This brings daily shower and thunderstorm chances through Friday associated with the boundary.

With the ridge breaking down this week, temps aloft aren't expected to be quite as warm, which should support a weaker capping inversion. With continued low- level moisture advection off the Atlantic, and a weaker cap, there should be at least a modest increase in the chance of showers and thunderstorms at points this, with the risk likely focused wherever the front resides on that particular day. As mentioned above, we will have summer time deep layer shear (15- 25kt), which doesn't favor much of a severe weather potential. Machine learning guidance also favors a lower risk of severe weather next week. Given the ongoing drought conditions, though, any moisture will be welcomed. While guidance differ on where the front will be each day next week, the most solid signal for convection appears to be in the late Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. For this reason, have upped PoPs to likely for much of mainland ENC Wednesday afternoon/evening.

As we get into the weekend, low pressure moves across the Midwest into the canadian maritimes, with a cold front trailing from it moving through the region. This brings more shower/tstorm chances for the weekend.

AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 655 PM Sun...VFR conditions currently across the area early this evening with sct high clouds and diurnal cu, while a backdoor front continues to sink southward through the terminals. Main forecast challenge overnight is the potential for fog and stratus to develop both behind and near the front.
Sub-VFR cigs will likely overspread the area late tonight with developing onshore flow, along with the potential for patchy fog. Brief period of IFR will be possible, with best chances at PGV and EWN. Along and south of where the boundary stalls will have the best chance for patchy fog development given a localized pooling of moisture and lighter winds, with best chances along and south of hwy 70. VFR conditions return by mid morning to the terminals, and early afternoon across the NE forecast area. Winds will grad veer, becoming NE-E behind the boundary overnight, returning to southerly Mon afternoon with gusts 15-20 kt.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 350 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGES

- TSRA and sub-VFR risk likely to return this week

A wavy frontal boundary will meander over the region through much of the work week. In vicinity of this front, there will be a risk of SHRA, TSRA, and brief sub VFR conditions at times. The timing of the front, and when the greatest impact to aviation will be, is less certain but still appears to be Tuesday night through Wednesday.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 10 PM Sun...Backdoor front continues to sink southward through the waters this evening, with latest obs NE/E 10-15 kt behind the front and SW 5-15 kt ahead of it. Gusty NE-E winds will develop behind the front with potential for occasional gusts 20-25 kt, mainly for the waters north of Cape Hatteras and the inland sounds. The gusty, near SCA criteria conditions will be short in duration (2-4 hrs), making the issuance of a SCA unlikely even with an upward trend in wind gust fcst. The back door cold front will stall near the Crystal Coast, which will keep winds easterly to the north of the boundary and southwesterly to the south. Seas 2-3 ft occasionally 4 ft into Mon. Winds tomorrow become southerly 10-15kt as high pressure moves offshore.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 4 PM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Wavy frontal boundary this week with less certainty regarding winds, waves, and thunderstorms

Aforementioned front meanders north to south each day this week, making the wind forecast less certain on any given day. The front will also carry a modest increase in the risk of thunderstorms, especially by Tuesday and Wednesday.

Winds and seas this week are somewhat uncertain and will be dependent on where the front is each day, and how strong the gradient is around it on any given day but generally looking at wind speeds of 10-20 kt and seas 2-4 ft through Friday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.