Tuesday, October22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Washington Park, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 6:27PM Tuesday October 22, 2019 9:53 AM EDT (13:53 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 2:16PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 728 Am Edt Tue Oct 22 2019
Today..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E late this morning, then becoming se 10 to 15 kt early this afternoon, becoming S 15 to 20 kt late. Waves 1 ft, then around 2 ft this afternoon. Isolated tstms late this morning and afternoon. Isolated showers early this afternoon, then scattered showers late.
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Scattered showers with isolated tstms in the evening.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Washington Park, NC
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location: 35.54, -77.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 221133
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
733 am edt Tue oct 22 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will push through the area late tonight. High
pressure then builds in Wednesday through Thursday night.

Another cold front approaches the area by the end of week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 7 am tue... Observations indicate that low level clouds are
beginning to scatter as improved low level mixing arrives with
the nose of the low pre-frontal low level jet. Have adjusted sky
cover accordingly, with no other significant changes needed with
the sunrise update.

Previous discussion... High amplitude troughing working into the
eastern us will work with and approaching cold front to bring
deep layer moisture advection to eastern nc today. Scattered
showers expected to spread into the area from the south through
the morning, followed by another round of scattered showers,
with the potential for some storms as well in the afternoon.

Strong to severe storms possible mainly in the afternoon as best
low level moisture convergence and modest solar insulation
brings CAPE values to near 1000-1500 j kg with >50 kt 0-6 km
shear and 300-500 m^2 s^2 0-3 km helicity present. The window
for all of these ingredients to come together is fairly narrow,
with instability waning quickly around sunset, but the potential
for a few storms producing strong gusty winds and maybe an
isolated tornado was enough to warrant an slight risk for severe
from spc. Southerly flow will allow temps to warm several
degrees and expect highs in the mid 70s to around 80.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Wednesday
As of 4 am tue... Convective activity will wane quickly with the
loss of instability after sunset. WAA and scattered to broken
clouds will linger until the front moves through late. Clearing
and CAA will result in temps cooling quickly behind the front,
with lows around 5-10 degrees below normal despite the warm
start to the night.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
As of 330 am tue... Strong high pressure will move across the
deep south and settle over the carolinas for the end of the work
week, keeping conditions dry and seasonable. Eventually the
high will move off to the northeast and make way for a system
coming out of the gulf of mexico, but long term models continue
to carry significant differences from Friday evening through the
weekend and into early next week. Therefore, a very low
confidence forecast for the back half of the long term. The gfs
solution at this time is much quicker with the arrival of a
frontal system spurred on by and upper level trough digging down
through the mississippi valley. The ECMWF solution doesn't
carry this feature and instead illustrates a more zonal pattern
in the upper levels and a continental surface high over the ohio
valley that keeps precipitation confined to the lower
mississippi valley. This results in a much later arrival time
for precipitation across eastern nc. While still favoring the
gfs solution for the time being, have gone ahead and cut pop for
the weekend to slight chance and low end chance, to give some
acknowledgement to the ec solution.

Regardless what happens at the end of the long term, the front half
will be dry and temperatures should reach the low to mid 70s in most
locations Wednesday through Friday. At night, some decent
radiational cooling could see temps inland down in the low to mid
40s on Wednesday night, but rebounding Thursday and Friday nights
back into the 50s with mid 60s along the coast. This trend of 70s
during the day and 50s and 60s at night should continue through the
end of the long term but will be dependent upon the eventual
pattern.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
Short term through tonight ...

as of 730 am tue... Low level clouds have largely scattered out
this morning, though brief periods of MVFR remain possible into
mid-morning ahead of a subtle warm front. Showers and
thunderstorms will cross the area late morning through early
evening, with brief periods of gusty winds and sub-vfr
conditions possible. However, recent hi-res guidance runs are
trending toward less storm coverage, so have opted to handle
with just vcsh for the time being. The front will cross the
terminals late evening or overnight, and CAA developing behind
the front will bring aboutVFR conditions Wednesday morning.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday ...

as of 430 am Tuesday...VFR conditions are likely Wednesday
through Friday. Some increase in cloud cover Friday ahead of the
approaching cold front. By Saturday, some brief sub-vfr
conditions may occur in scattered showers.

Marine
Short term through tonight ...

as of 4 am tue... Moderate winds veer to southerly and become
breezy over the course of the day in response to an approaching
cold front. This cold front will cross the waters overnight,
with winds becoming northwest and remaining breezy behind the
front. Occasional gusts to 25 kt are possible mainly across the
coastal waters later today and tonight, but 15-20 kt winds
prevail during this time. Scas remain in effect mainly for the
seas, which will subside a bit this morning before building back
to to 5 to 7 feet this afternoon and tonight mainly around and
north of ocracoke inlet in mainly locally generated windswell.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday ...

as of 430 am Tuesday... Small craft advisories for rough seas
will linger into Wednesday morning as cold front exits the area.

With broad high pressure then building into the region from the
west, Wednesday through late week will feature winds at mostly
10 knots or less, approaching 15 knots closer to 20 nm
offshore, with seas 2 to no more than 4 feet with no sca
conditions expected.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... Beach hazards statement through this evening for ncz203-205.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Wednesday for amz152-154.

Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 2 am edt
Wednesday for amz156.

Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Wednesday for amz150.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Cb
short term... Cb
long term... Rte
aviation... Rte cb
marine... Rte cb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 60 mi54 min E 5.1 G 8.9 70°F1016.2 hPa (-0.8)
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 69 mi54 min ESE 13 G 14 70°F 1015.9 hPa (-0.8)70°F
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 74 mi54 min ENE 7 G 8.9 69°F1016.1 hPa (-0.5)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Washington, Warren Field Airport, NC2 mi59 minN 010.00 miOvercast62°F59°F94%1015.9 hPa
Pitt-Greenville Airport, NC20 mi59 minE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy61°F59°F94%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOCW

Wind History from OCW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3NE4N4N3N3CalmCalmCalmNE4NE4E4NE3E4CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5E3E4
1 day agoSE13
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2 days ago------S4S3CalmE3E4CalmE3E3CalmE3CalmE3NE4CalmE5E9SE13
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Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:44 AM EDT     2.04 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:03 AM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:13 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:12 PM EDT     2.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:06 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.31.7221.91.61.20.90.60.50.60.91.41.92.32.42.42.11.71.30.80.50.4

Tide / Current Tables for Newport River (Yacht Club), North Carolina
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop



Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.