Sunrise 6:00 AM   Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 2:42 PM   Moonset 2:24 AM

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AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 355 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Monday afternoon - .
Tonight - SE winds around 10 kt, becoming ne late this evening and early morning, then increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of tstms this evening. Showers. A slight chance of tstms after midnight. Sun - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers, mainly in the morning. Sun night - N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers. Mon - N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Mon night - N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Tue - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft. Tue night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Waves 1 ft or less. Wed - NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Wed night - S winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Thu night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 355 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - Low pressure system and its associated fronts impact enc this evening before pushing offshore by Sunday morning bringing unsettled weather to the area. High pressure ridging then builds in from the north keeping much of the area dry through mid week before the next potential frontal system late week.

FXUS62 KMHX 181943 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 343 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure system and its associated fronts impact ENC this evening before pushing offshore by Sunday morning bringing unsettled weather to the area. High pressure ridging then builds in from the north keeping much of the area dry through mid week before the next potential frontal system late week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 330 PM Saturday...

KEY POINTS:

- There is a low end chance (~20-30%) for heavy to excessive rainfall today in ENC this afternoon and evening as a low transits across the area.

-There remains a low end chance (~10-30%) chance for isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and early this evening before the threat diminisheS significantly later tonight.

Overall the general synoptic pattern has not changed much since the previous update as a jet streak currently extends across portions of the SE and Mid-Atlantic and should gradually push offshore while an upper level trough continues to make its way E'wards across the Southeast, eventually becoming centered over the Mid-Atlantic late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Incoming shortwave will continue to round the base of this trough this evening eventually pushing overhead by early Sun morning. At the surface a quasi- stationary warm front currently extends from NW to SE around northern Pitt to Hyde County with S'rly winds as well as warm and humid conditions to the south of this front while east to northeasterly winds and much cooler conditions found to the north of this front. Low pressure has begun to develop along this boundary and will quickly push E'wards across ENC and off the OBX by late tonight with warm front eventually turning into a cold front and shifting SE'wards tonight as well behind the departing low. For this evening left PoP forecast alone for the most part as increasing shower and thunderstorm chances will overspread the FA this afternoon and evening with heavy rain and severe weather possible within this activity. Precip chances then quickly lower from north to south behind the departing low and front late tonight with only SChc PoP's expected by Sun morning across ENC. This is also forecast to gradually shift winds from north to south to a northeasterly direction bringing a much cooler and more stable airmass to ENC by early Sun morning. Hi temps today have gotten into the low 80s to upper 70s south of the front while to the north highs have struggled to get out of the upper 50s to low 60s. Lows tonight get into the upper 50s to low 60s.

With the above noted, a low end heavy rain and severe threat will remain in place across ENC this afternoon and extending into tonight before diminishing significantly after about the 11PM-2AM timeframe.
Highest probs located just south of wherever the front sets up.
Morning sounding showed a saturated column with RH's at 85% or above in both low and mid levels, PWAT's at 1.51 inches, long skinny CAPE, and a warm cloud layer around 10000 ft across the region. Sounding profiles don't change much overall this evening with PWAT's forecast to stick around 1.5-2.0 inches especially along and south of the aforementioned frontal boundary. This will result in favorable conditions for heavy to excessive rainfall this afternoon and evening with the primary risk area noted around and just to the south of where the front stalls and the low develops. With this environment in place, widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2" are possible across the entire area.
Latest 12Z suite shows the potential for the heaviest showers to bring rainfall rates of 1-2" per hour at times with HRRR and NBM probs showing a 10-30% chance for some locations to see rainfall amounts as high as 3-5". The one limiting factor for today will be the faster storm motions but if storms can train over each other they would be very efficient rainmakers and it would not be out of the question to see some isolated areas receive close to this higher end amount resulting in at least a low end risk for localized flash flooding.

The severe risk is a bit more uncertain as S'rly flow to the south of this front combined with widespread breaks in the clouds everywhere but the NOBX should result in fairly widespread MLCAPE values around 500-1500 J/kg this afternoon and evening.
Widespread 30-40 kts of bulk shear will remain in place as well with the one limiting factor for severe weather being forcing to the south of this front which will remain limited. Either way the area remains in a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe storms today with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts (40-60 mph) and small hail within the strongest storms. Greatest threat for strong to severe thunderstorm activity will remain relegated to along and south of the front.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/
As of 330 PM Saturday... Upper level trough will be centered over the Mid-Atlantic to start our day out with this trough pushing offshore by SUn evening. Mid level shortwave will also push offshore by SUn evening as well. AT the surface low pressure off the coast will continue to push further out to seas as high pressure wedges itself across the Carolinas from the north bringing dry air to the region. Latest trends have come in drier for SUnday as it looks like the low will be farther away from the coast than previously thought which limits moisture availability across the area. As a result have lowered PoP's to SChc across just about all of the area with further reductions possible in coming updates. Otherwise steady NE'rly flow will keep temps on the cooler side with highs only getting into the 60s to near 70.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 330 PM Sat...High pressure builds in from the north for the first half of the workweek. A cold front will approach from the west toward the latter half of the week.

Sunday night...Drier conditions ensue Sun night with lows in the 50s.

Monday through Thursday...High pressure builds across the Mid- Atlantic. Expect dry conditions through Thursday, along with steadily warming conditions. Temps will start out in the 70s, then by Tue and esp Wed into Thu, rise through the 80s and back above climo. Lows will be in the 50s to start the pd, then rise into the 60s by mid week.

Friday...Next potential weather maker in the form of a shortwave trough and approaching cold front may arrive by week's end, bringing threat for thundershowers to the region with a warm/humid airmass in place by then. Lots of disagreement this far out, so pops only in the 30's% at best.

AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Sunday morning/...
As of 120 PM Saturday...A fairly complicated forest is on tap today as we have several moving parts to the aviation forecast.
Currently have a mix of VFR to IFR conditions across ENC with MVFR ceilings noted at the ISO/PGV TAF sites and VFR at EWN/OAJ.
Lowest ceilings can be found along the NOBX where E to NE flow has kept low stratus in place. As we get into this afternoon and evening a wave of low pressure will develop along a N'ward moving warm front eventually pushing offshore tonight. As this occurs shower and thunderstorm activity will quickly increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon before waning late tonight as the low and its associated fronts move offshore. As a result expect VFR ceilings/vis to become MVFR/IFR at times within any heavier shower or storm. Have also added in tempo groups for potential tstm activity across all terminals starting around 20Z across our northern most TAF sites and ending around 03Z at our southern most TAF sites. AFterwards we may see a brief period of VFR/MVFR ceilings across ENC early this evening before NE flow brings low stratus across all of ENC resulting in widespread IFR/LIFR ceilings at all terminals. These IFR/LIFR ceilings likely then persist through much of the morning with clouds maybe lifting towards SUn afternoon to MVFR at times.
Otherwise expect winds to become NE'rly tonight from N to S with winds gusting closer to 15-20 kts late Sun morning.

LONG TERM /Sun afternoon through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sat...A low pressure system will impact the area through the weekend bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions. Pred VFR conditions are expected early through mid week.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 330 PM Saturday... Quasi stationary warm front stretches from NW to SE across the Pamlico SOund and adjacent coastal waters this afternoon and shouldn't move much until a developing low pressure system to the west quickly tracks E'wards tonight and brings this front south as a cold front tonight. To the south of the front, 5-10 kt SW'rly winds with 1-3 ft seas are noted while to the north of the front 5-10 kt NE'rly winds and 2-4 ft seas are noted this afternoon. Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast to develop along this boundary this evening, the strongest of which could produce gusty winds of 34kt+ and small hail. As the low pushes offshore and the front moves S'wards precip chances will lower after 06Z and winds across all waters will shift from north to south to a NE'rly direction and increase with widespread 15-25 kt NE'rly winds with gusts up to 25- 20 kts expected across just about all of our waters except the Pamlico/Pungo River. As a result, have small crafts just about everywhere to account for this N'rly surge. Elevated N'rly winds continue into Sun evening.

Seas will begin to build to 3-6 ft Saturday night into Sunday morning within the strengthening northeasterly surge of wind behind the departing low and remain around 3-6 ft with some 7 ft seas possibly noted along the outer coastal waters Sun afternoon and evening.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 4 AM Sat...A complex low pressure system will shift off of the NC coast during the day Sun, with gusty nerly winds in it's wake. Solid SCA cond expected across all waters and sounds, including Alligator River, through Sunday as winds inc to 20-30 kt. SCA cond linger into Monday evening for Pamlico Sound and the coastal waters as moderately gusty ne winds keep seas elevated and wind gusts aoa 25 kt. Seas expected to drop below 6 ft Mon night all waters as high pres begins to build in.

HYDROLOGY
As of 340 PM Sat...A warm front will stall northwest to southeast along and just south of hwy 264 (including Greenville)
this evening, with the potential for convection to train along the boundary. If this occurs, max QPF guidance suggests rainfall amounts as high as 3-5". This may occur over a relatively small area, but is noteworthy coming on the heels of the recent round of rain. Where/if this occurs, there would be a locally higher risk of hydro/flash flooding concerns, and we'll be closely monitoring this potential.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ131- 230-231.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 4 PM EDT Monday for AMZ135-150.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ137.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ152.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ154-156.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to midnight EDT Monday night for AMZ158.

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Core Creek Bridge
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Sat -- 12:06 AM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:52 AM EDT     1.81 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:14 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:40 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:19 PM EDT     2.08 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

Newport River (Yacht Club), North Carolina, Tide feet

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