Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Templeton, CA

.SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...22/754 PM.

***UPDATE***

A 1500 ft marine layer capped by a strong inversion teamed up with an 8 mb onshore push to the east to bring morning low clouds to all of the csts/vlys and slow to no clearing to the coasts in the afternoon (LA county had the best clearing and was sunny by noon).
Look for a similar day tomorrow except for the SBA county south coast where a little offshore push from the north should bring slightly better clearing and slightly warmer temps. Max temps will continue 5 to 10 degree blo normals for the csts/vlys while the Antelope vly will be a few degrees above normal due to downslope flow off of the western mtns/foothills.

Gloomy forecast is in good shape and no updates are planned.

***From Previous Discussion***

A trough will remain over the West Coast for the next several days maintaining well below normal temperatures across coast and valleys with a deepening marine layer. The depth this morning was around 2400 feet and expecting that to rise to at least 3500 feet tonight resulting in some areas of drizzle, especially near the foothills. Some coastal areas are already seeing little to no sunshine during the afternoon and that trend will expand through the week to the point where valleys will eventually stay socked in all day. That could be as early as Thursday but certainly no later than Friday as a stronger trough approaches the West Coast.

Farther inland across the Antelope Valley and interior SLO County, temperatures will remain above near to slightly above normal through Wednesday, then as that next trough moves in with colder air aloft highs will drop below normal. Gusty west to southwest winds will be increasing each day as well.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...22/400 AM.

Broad troughing will linger into late week with a strong trough expected to move over the region between Friday and Saturday. The forecast ensembles all indicate cooling extending into Saturday.
EPS ensemble members continue to indicate a majority of the solutions suggesting precipitation either in the form of light rain or drizzle on Saturday, while GEFS and CMC ensemble members are much drier. A cooler and cloudier weather pattern should be expected for late week.

A warming trend will establish for early next week as cluster analysis indicates ridging aloft nosing into the region. There is still quite a bit of ensemble spread due to inconsistencies with how strong the ridge pattern will be. Most favor a strong ridge building into the West Coast, possibly bringing above normal temperatures to the region and weak offshore flow to the Central Coast. The forecast goes with NBM values for the current time.

AVIATION
23/0103Z.

At 2315Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1400 feet deep. The top of the inversion was 2500 feet with a temperature of 11 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

Moderate in remaining TAFs. Timing of flight cat changes may be off +/- 2 hours. There is a 30% chance for LIFR conds at KSMX tonight, and a 20% chance at KBUR/KVNY. There is a 20% chance of IFR conds at KSMO/KLAX/KLGB.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 25 percent chc of a 19Z VFR transition. There is a 20 percent chc of OVC008 conds 11Z-15Z. No significant east wind component expected.
KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs may arrive as early as 07Z. There is a 20 percent chc of OVC004 conds 11Z-15Z.

MARINE
22/920 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, there is a 40-50% chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level wind gusts across the northwestern portion PZZ670, mostly over far western portions. Therefore, holding off on issuing a SCA due to the localized nature of the winds. Conditions will remain below SCA levels across PZZ673/676 through tonight. For Wednesday through the weekend, northwest winds will increase with a 50-60% chance for SCA winds Wednesday afternoon and evening, and a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds Thursday afternoon through the weekend across all the Outer Waters.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Wednesday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level winds in the afternoon and evening hours. For Thursday through the weekend, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high confidence in current forecast. Tonight through Wednesday morning, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels.
There is a 30-40% chance for localized gusts to SCA levels over western portions Wednesday night. For Thursday and Friday, there is a 40-60% chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel. For Saturday and Sunday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds across western sections of the entire southern Inner Waters.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.