Sunrise 6:37 AM   Sunset 8:17 PM Moonrise 1:12 AM   Moonset 10:53 AM

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FXUS64 KOUN 301109 AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 609 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Mostly clear skies are in place across the area early this morning, with the exception of some patchy fog across southern Oklahoma where moisture return has already begun. Moisture will continue to surge northward through the day as southerly flow increases. A dryline will setup from northwest Oklahoma into far southwest Oklahoma by this afternoon. Ahead of the dryline, moderate to strong instability will be in place with relatively low CIN by mid to late afternoon.
Isolated to scattered convection is expected to initiate ahead of the dryline, with greatest coverage likely to be across northern Oklahoma close to a stalling frontal boundary, with a secondary area of development across southwest OK and western north TX where capping is a bit weaker. Wind shear will be rather modest with the stronger mid-level flow remaining well to our north, but with strong instability in place and bulk shear on the order of 30-35 knots, multicell to transient supercell storm modes could lead to large to very large hail. Damaging wind gusts will also be a possibility with fairly large T/Td spreads. The tornado threat appears very low with fairly weak low-level shear, but could not be completely ruled out as a modest LLJ increases towards early evening, especially toward the Kansas border near the front.
Convection will tend to wane by late evening, with some potential for it to linger through the night across northern Oklahoma in the vicinity of the frontal boundary. Flooding could also become a concern across northern Oklahoma this evening and overnight with a tendency for storms to train along the boundary, but confidence in boundary location and relatively narrow axis of heaviest rain precludes a Flood Watch at this time.

Ware

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Any lingering convection across northern Oklahoma Wednesday morning is expected to dissipate as the front returns northward into Kansas.
Mid-level flow will strengthen a bit during the day as a trough deepens to our west, with moderate to strong instability expected once again ahead of the dryline which will set up a bit further west than Tuesday. Better forcing for ascent associated with the approaching trough will likely lead to better storm coverage, with scattered to widespread convection expected along the dryline in western Oklahoma and western north Texas by late afternoon. With slightly better shear in place, all severe hazards will be possible, although large hail and damaging wind gusts appear to be the main threats.

The main upper trough will eject into the plains on Thursday, sending a cold front into the area during the afternoon. With an unstable airmass in place ahead of the front, expect additional chances for showers and storms, most probable across central and eastern Oklahoma during the afternoon and evening. At least some risk for severe weather appears possible given decent instability and sufficient wind shear.

Flooding will also be a concern in areas that see multiple rounds of heavy rainfall, but this currently appears to be more of a localized vs. widespread flooding risk given scattered nature of convection. Rain and storm chances will then continue Friday into the weekend as the frontal boundary stalls in the region and southwest flow continues aloft.

Ware

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Stratus and associated MVFR and some IFR ceilings are developing across portions of north Texas into western Oklahoma. Will include some lower ceilings through mid-morning before a return of VFR conditions. South winds will increase over the next 2/3 hours with gusts of 25 to 30kts across the area. There is a chance of showers/storms late this afternoon and tonight and will include either PROB30/TEMPO at many sites. MVFR ceilings are expected to redevelop after midnight across the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 86 64 81 65 / 10 20 50 40 Hobart OK 90 62 83 63 / 20 20 50 60 Wichita Falls TX 87 66 83 65 / 10 30 40 60 Gage OK 94 58 88 59 / 10 10 40 30 Ponca City OK 88 62 81 65 / 20 70 60 50 Durant OK 84 66 83 66 / 0 10 30 50

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
TX...None.

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