Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for The Village, OK

NEAR TERM
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Drier air will again overspread parts of western and northern Oklahoma today, as a dryline mixes eastward. Naturally, models differ with the position of this feature. We will convert the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for six counties across northwestern Oklahoma. This area will likely see humidity fall to around 20 percent by mid afternoon with strong wind gusts to 40 mph. There's also the potential for a few high-based showers across this area during the afternoon. Lightning is unlikely, but they could enhance wind gusts.

Unlikely yesterday, there will be better upper-level support in the form a lead shortwave trough. This will bring better chances of thunderstorm development along and near a dryline by mid to late afternoon. There will likely be more mid to high clouds that arrive during the day which will limit insolation. Despite this, models suggest near surface instability of at least 2500 J/kg east of the dryline. Instability and deep layer shear is expected to be sufficient for supercell storms with a risk of very large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorms that develop will move rather quickly to the northeast (30-40 mph)

SHORT TERM
(Tuesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Thunderstorms are expected to continue into at least the early to mid evening hours with a continued risk of severe weather, especially with any supercells. There should be a lull in thunderstorm develop from the late evening into parts of the overnight hours. However, the main upper trough will be approaching far West Texas Wednesday morning. Model guidance indicates showers and storms may develop by sunrise across portions of southern within an area of mid-level convergence. Confidence in this is not high, but certainly possible.

Thunderstorm development during the day Wednesday should be earlier based on the position and movement of the upper trough. A more eastern position of a dryline, should limit severe chance across western Oklahoma and parts of western north Texas. However, central and eastern parts of Oklahoma may be impacted by another round of severe storms by early to mid afternoon. Most of the thunderstorms that form Wednesday afternoon should end by mid to late evening.

Most of the day Thursday will be dry. However, near-critcal fire weather conditions may emerge across western Oklahoma and western north Texas Thursday afternoon. Afternoon highs are expected to warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s with afternoon humidity approaching 10-15 percent.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

On Friday, surface low pressure will deepen quickly, as an upper trough moves across the central and northern Rockies. How far east drier air will mix into far western Oklahoma during the afternoon is uncertain. However, there is the potential for a small area of near- critical to critical fire weather conditions across far western Oklahoma and northern Texas. The bigger story will be the potential for supercell storms to develop along and near a dryline during the afternoon and evening. Better forcing across the northern half of Oklahoma should favor better storm coverage. Still a lot of detail to be worked out, but Friday has the potential for rather impactful storms. Additional storms will likely form along a cold front which is expected to move across most of the area Friday evening and night.

The front is expected to push well to our south and east on Saturday, so much of the upcoming weekend is expected to be dry with highs in the 60s to lower 70s.

A southerly wind is expected to increase on Monday with most areas remaining dry. The exception may be a few showers across southern Oklahoma.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

One or more waves of storms is expected to develop in western Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas this afternoon, and progress eastward (with northeastward storm motions) through the evening.
Keeping prob30s for now given the line is expected to be broken and there remain some uncertainties in timing.

Clouds are remaining more persistent then previously expected, but some lifting is still expected. As on previous mornings, MVFR stratus will develop again in the morning up toward I-44 and along I-35. Winds will remain southerly and mostly gusty, aside from a wind shift in northwest Oklahoma toward morning.

Day

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 66 79 59 85 / 60 70 30 0 Hobart OK 63 85 53 90 / 60 50 20 0 Wichita Falls TX 67 83 59 89 / 70 60 20 0 Gage OK 56 83 48 89 / 20 20 10 0 Ponca City OK 66 80 56 84 / 50 70 40 0 Durant OK 67 78 64 86 / 50 80 60 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009- 010-014-021.

TX...None.