NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

FXUS64 KOUN 280840 AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 240 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 229 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Surface winds return out of the south/southwest today as surface ridge settles to our southeast, which, along with warming mid-level temps will help boost highs about 5 degrees over yesterday. High clouds will increase from the west tonight, but should still see decent radiational cooling conditions for the first half of the night, with lows dipping back into 20s across northern Oklahoma and 30s central/south.

Ware

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 229 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

High clouds will continue to increase on Wednesday ahead of our next system, with increasing isentropic ascent leading to shower development by late Wednesday night and Thursday morning, mainly to the east of I-35. The main shortwave will track across the area later in the day Thursday and Thursday night, which is when the majority of precipitation is expected to fall. Instability is rather weak but likely enough for a thunderstorm or two across western north Texas and southern/ southeastern Oklahoma. Models then show the potential for a deformation band to develop on the northwest side of the 500 mb low track, but still disagree slightly on exactly where this might be (central/north-central Oklahoma vs northwest Oklahoma). There remains a low chance (15-20%) for some snow to mix in within this band Thursday evening, but the overall temperature profile through the column is very marginal and no impacts would be expected with surface temperatures above freezing. For now maintained a rain/snow mix in northwest Oklahoma to account for this possibility.

Precipitation should clear the area by Friday morning, with north winds on the backside of the system dropping highs into the 40s and low 50s Friday afternoon. Another low amplitude shortwave will follow quickly behind on Saturday, but models disagree on the amount of available moisture and for now have maintained <10% PoPs on Saturday. The airmass behind this system is not all that cold, so temperatures will hold near average Sunday and Monday.

Ware

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1016 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023

VFR conditions to continue.

Light winds overnight with some high clouds across the south.
South to southwest winds will increase some during the day Tuesday with some gusts to near 20kts possible across western Oklahoma.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 57 34 60 47 / 0 0 0 10 Hobart OK 58 32 59 46 / 0 0 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 61 35 63 50 / 0 0 0 10 Gage OK 55 22 56 33 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 51 24 53 40 / 0 0 0 10 Durant OK 60 37 63 48 / 0 0 0 50

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
TX...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Oklahoma City, OK,