Friday, January24, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Garner, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 5:34PM Friday January 24, 2020 12:01 PM EST (17:01 UTC) Moonrise 7:18AMMoonset 5:25PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Garner, NC
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location: 35.6, -78.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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FXUS62 KRAH 241643 RRA AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1143 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

SYNOPSIS. A large area of low pressure will move from the Missouri Valley into the Great Lakes region through Saturday. A second area of low pressure will develop across Georgia this morning and then move north across the western Carolinas tonight and off the mid Atlantic coast on Saturday morning as a cold front sweeps east across the Carolinas late tonight.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 1140 AM Friday .

Breaks in the overcast have already materialized across much of cntl and ern NC this morning; and this has resulted in faster and more appreciable warming than earlier forecast. This trend will continue through the afternoon, as this region experiences a period of deeper subsidence and drying behind a srn stream shortwave trough now exiting the ern Carolinas. We still expect the warming and related wedge front retreat to be tempered/retarded over the nw Piedmont, where a quarter to half inch of rain fell this morning and strengthened an in-situ cold air damming regime sampled well by the 12Z GSO RAOB.

Previous timing of the convective line, mostly showers with isolated thunder, remains on track for this evening-tonight. A shallow plume of modified EML sampled in the 850-700 mb layer by the BRO RAOB last evening has overspread the nrn GOM this morning per both RAP-based (SPC) Mesoanalysis and GOES 16 wv satellite (7.3u) data. The models indicate this EML plume --and relatively steeper mid level lapse rates-- will advect newd into the ern Carolinas immediately preceding the convective line tonight and contribute to mostly elevated instability of up to 500-750 J/kg of MUCAPE over the Sandhills and srn Coastal Plain between 03-06Z. And while low and deep layer shear will be strong, enhanced by the arrival of the exit region of an observed ~90 kt 500 mb jet at SHV and JAN this morning, related convective organization/rotation will likely remain rooted above a shallow layer of stability near the surface. Nonetheless point forecast soundings suggest this stable layer will be sensitive to even subtle changes to surface theta-e, so surface-based (or nearly so) cells --and related surface wind hazards (e.g. damaging wind/isolated tornado)-- cannot be ruled out. This threat will be roughly from MEB to FAY to GSB and points south, where surface dewpoints are likely to maximize in the upr 50s to around 60 degrees.

PREV DISCUSSION. /ISSUED 422 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020/

. There is a non-zero threat for isolated severe storms this evening and overnight across Southeastern NC .

A mid/upper level low located over the Lower/Middle MS valley this morning will rotate slowly NEWD into the Ohio Valley through tonight. While the associated primary surface low will follow suite, models are in good agreement that a secondary, triple point low will develop INVOF of the western Carolinas late this afternoon, that will track north along the retreating wedge/warm front lifting north through the area this evening, before reaching the DELMARVA coast Saturday morning.

Overlay of regional satellite and radar imagery shows a text-book example of strengthening low-level moisture convergence, ahead of the upper low, underneath an area of diffluent flow aloft spreading east across the region. This primary area of rain is expected to move into the western Piedmont over the next few hours and will produce intermittent/periods through the afternoon. With temps well above freezing this mornings and dewpoints rising into the lower to mid 30s, there will be very little wet-bulbing cooling effect, and thus temps will remain above freezing, supporting all rain this morning.

More spotty rain showers, developing in a weaker SELY moist feed off the SE Coast will spread into central and eastern portions around the same time, but this area of showers will be short-lived, confined to the initial surge, followed by a rather lengthy, late morning/afternoon lull in rain.

As precip overspreads the area, a shallow, in-situ CAD airmass will develop across the NC Piedmont and will likely hold, reinforced by the intermittent rain showers lifting across western NC. Meanwhile, across central and especially eastern portions of the forecast area, there is a good chance we will some breaks in the low-level cloud cover that will for some partial insolation. This will result in a sharp NW to SE temp gradient this afternoon, with highs ranging from lower to mid 40s NW Piedmont to lower/mid 60s across the eastern Sandhills and southern coastal plain counties.

Early this evening and overnight: The occluded front will move west to east across the area overnight, progged to be exiting the eastern/coastal plain zones right around sunrise Saturday morning. Strong upper trough dynamics and lift, via 90 to 120 meter H5 falls, and within a belt of 80+ knot mid-level flow/50kt low-level flow, atop the frontal convergence zone will support a strongly forced line of convection across central NC overnight. Buoyancy/Instability across the NC Piedmont and northern coastal plain zones is forecast to remain weak(<150 J/Kg). However, a moist unstable tongue of air is forecast to spread north into the Sandhills and southern coastal plain this evening and overnight, with MLCAPE increasing to 500 to 800 J/KG, maximized across the far SE zones. This confined area of instability, concurrent with the strongly sheared environment could allow some convective strengthening to support a few strong to severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts and possibly an isolated tornado. Will highlight this nocturnal threat in the HWO and social media.

Rainfall amounts are expected to range from 0.25 to 0.50" east of I- 95, to 0.50 to 1.0" west of I-95, with some locally higher amounts of 1.0 to 1.25" across the western Piedmont possible. Given that most of this precip will occur with the convective band, within a 2- 3 hr period, could see some localized/urban flooding.

Lastly, areas of low overcast and fog --some dense-- will likely expand across the residual CAD regime over the Piedmont overnight. beneath clearing skies aloft. Lows ranging from upper 30s NW to around 50 east.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. As of 335 AM Friday .

A deepening closed upper level low centered over the western Great Lakes on Saturday morning will move east reaching northern New England by Sunday night. The negatively tilted upper trough axis extending southeast from the upper low which is associated with a weakening ribbon of 85+ kt winds at 500 hPa will move across central NC during the midday hours with a westerly to west- southwesterly upper flow behind the trough for Saturday into Sunday night. At the surface, the associated cold front will reach the coast during the morning hours followed by a lingering lee trough across the western Piedmont of the Carolinas and Virginia.

Lingering clouds and areas of fog are expected in the and near the cold air damming region across the Piedmont on Saturday morning. A enhanced band of clouds with a sprinkle or a rogue is possible as the upper trough axis moves across central NC during the morning and midday hours. Otherwise, dry conditions with some clearing is expected on Saturday. Mainly clear skies are expected Saturday night into Sunday morning before mid and high clouds increase on Sunday night as the next upper trough approaches. Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected with highs in the lower 50s northwest to near 60 southeast on Saturday that cool a bit into the lower to mid 50s on Sunday with morning lows in the lower to mid 30s both days. -Blaes

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 335 AM Friday .

A complex and fast upper air pattern with multiple waves and disturbances will evolve during the long term period providing a greater than typical amount of uncertainty. The first system is comprised of multiple short wave troughs dropping from the MO valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. These waves don't phase together much and have only a weak surface reflection. Still, both the operational GFS and EC have trended wetter with this system and now generate some light precipitation across the Carolinas southeast to FL. While precipitation amounts appear light, have introduced low chance or slight chance PoPs for this period, increased cloud cover and lower max temperatures a bit. Highs on Monday should range in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

As the previous system departs, a northwesterly flow aloft is expected on Tuesday. A split flow pattern develops during the mid week period and central NC appears to be in between an active northern stream with a wave moving across the Great Lakes and Northeast on Wednesday and Thursday and a suppressed low amplitude wave that moves across Deep South and Southeast on Wednesday into Thursday. NWP guidance has trended much drier with this system and have lowered the inherited PoPs into the slight chance range for Wednesday night and removed PoPs for Thursday. Given the fast and somewhat chaotic flow, forecast confidence is limited and adjustments to the forecast are expected. Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will range in the lower to mid 50s. -Blaes

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 715 AM Friday .

Widespread IFR ceilings with pockets of LIFR ceilings in the area of light rain spreading NE into the western Piedmont will continue through 15z. Thereafter, intermittent rain showers are expected in the Triad into the afternoon, with continued cold air damming keep ceilings in the IFR range. In addition, low level wind shear is expected to develop in the Triad by mid morning and continue through the afternoon hours.

At the remaining TAF sites, as a wedge/warm front retreats NW into the western Piedmont, flight restrictions are forecast to improve vastly, lifting to MVFR and then VFR during the afternoon.

A band of heavy showers will move east through the forecast area between 00 to 10z Saturday evening/night. An embedded thunderstorm will also be possible, primarily at FAY and RWI. A period of IFR to MVFR conditions will accompany the band of convection, along with gusts of 20 to 30kts. Partial clearing/drying behind the band of showers could support the development of areas of fog and continued low overcast mainly at Piedmont sites late tonight/Saturday morning.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected Saturday through early to mid next week.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SYNOPSIS . Blaes NEAR TERM . MWS/CBL SHORT TERM . Blaes LONG TERM . Blaes AVIATION . CBL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Smithfield, Johnston County Airport, NC14 mi66 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy50°F46°F88%1022.3 hPa
Erwin, Harnett County Airport, NC16 mi66 minE 810.00 miOvercast52°F46°F83%1021.7 hPa
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC21 mi70 minE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy50°F45°F83%1021.9 hPa
Sanford, Sanford-Lee County Regional Airport, NC24 mi66 minE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy51°F45°F81%1021.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJNX

Wind History from JNX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4N6NE6NE5NE4NE4NE3CalmCalmNE4NE5N6CalmNE6N5NE5NE4NE4NE4NE5E4NE4NE4NE4
1 day agoN11
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NE8N9N8NE10NE5--NE3N3NE5NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE4CalmCalmN3N4N6NE8N4
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Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Fri -- 02:40 AM EST     1.22 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:11 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:35 AM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:17 PM EST     1.43 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:44 PM EST     New Moon
Fri -- 05:23 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:32 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:16 PM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.711.21.21.10.80.60.40.1-0.1-0.10.20.611.31.41.41.210.80.50.2-00.1

Tide / Current Tables for Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Castle Hayne
Click for Map
Fri -- 06:21 AM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:11 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:03 PM EST     1.88 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:44 PM EST     New Moon
Fri -- 05:25 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:02 PM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.310.70.40.1-0.1-0.10.40.91.41.71.91.81.51.20.90.60.2-00.20.61.11.4

Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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