Saturday, August15, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Garner, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 8:04PM Saturday August 15, 2020 3:44 AM EDT (07:44 UTC) Moonrise 1:42AMMoonset 4:42PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Garner, NC
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location: 35.6, -78.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Raleigh, NC
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FXUS62 KRAH 150740 AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 330 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak front will remain over the area through this evening. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure will migrate slowly along the front today and then offshore Sunday morning.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 330 AM Saturday .

. Numerous showers and storms with heavy rain and flash flooding possible this afternoon and evening .

Numerous showers and a couple isolated storms ongoing from Winston- Salem east through the Triangle continue to move northeast in response to the perturbed SWrly flow ahead of the positive tilt trough approaching the TN Valley. Latest surface analysis indicates a developing wedge airmass between TS Kyle off the Mid-Atlantic coast and a weak wave of low pressure in the TN Valley. The details of today's forecast are still somewhat uncertain, but the bottom line is that convective coverage, after a possible brief lull this morning, will increase midday onward as the trough axis approaches and the aforementioned low pressure wave tracks across the Piedmont along a persistent convergence zone. That convergence zone/front should strengthen a bit today, owing to differential heating between the stable airmass that will likely across the NW to northern Piedmont and better insolation across the south, and be additional focus for showers and storms.

Instability may be limited given cloud cover and weak lapse rates, and with shear also relatively weak SPC has removed the Marginal Risk for today. The pattern, with a surface wave tracking along a west-east oriented front and low LCLs, would otherwise favor a low- end tornado threat if low-level flow were more than the forecast 15- 20kt.

The main hazard today will be heavy showers and storms with PW still 2-2.25" and weak steering flow and mbEs. In repsonse to better handling of the wedge airmass, guidance has shorted south with the axis of heaviest QPF. now placing 1-2 inches across the northern half of central NC, especially from Davidson to Person Cos, an area that has received various spells of heavy rain since midweek. General longer term rainfall (200-300% of normal in the past 30-60 days) and recently lowered FFG from this week's heavy rain warrants a Flash Flood Watch for this area. Conditions may not be as favorable for the interior Piedmont, but there were several road closures from heavy rain in Raleigh last evening, and there area couple bands moving through this morning as well, so we will encompass most areas north of HWY 64 in the Watch through tonight. WPC has all of central NC in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall, and a Moderate Risk across the VA border counties.

Highs today are tricky with cloud cover, but expect lingering low clouds to keep the Triad closer to the lower end of the guidance spread in the upper 70s, with mid 80s to the southeast.

There should be a main band of convection moving east of the CWA with the surface low after midnight tonight, but additional showers should continue ahead of the upper trough, which doesn't clear the area until laster Sunday. Low clouds will settle in again, with low temps in the low/mid 70s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/. As of 330 AM Saturday .

the trough axis will slowly make its way across the area on Sunday, bringing drier air aloft into the Piedmont during the afternoon. Scattered to perhaps numerous showers and storms should redevelop neat and east of I-95 Sunday afternoon where deep moisture will still be prevalent. Low clouds early Sunday may have a chance at scattered given drier air aloft, but with northerly low-level flow, it's not clear how quickly the sun will return. Prefer to again stay on the lower side of guidance in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Showers and storms should finally abate and move east by Sunday night, with less but still patchy stratus possible until more NWrly flow sets in by Monday morning.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 210 AM Saturday .

This weekend's upper level trough will move over the Atlantic Ocean by Monday morning, meaning that while Monday and Tuesday won't be completely dry, they should relatively be the driest days of the week. The lowest chances for rain will be north and east of Raleigh, with the highest chances south of US 64. By Wednesday another upper level trough develops across the eastern United States, bringing back the typical diurnal cycle of showers and thunderstorms. Have enough confidence to go with likely pops across the western half of the forecast area Wednesday and Thursday, but not enough confidence to extend likely pops all the way into Friday. Temperatures will be seasonable, with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 200 AM Saturday .

Poor aviation conditions are expected through the TAF period. Showers now extending from INT all the way to RDU will continue through the morning hours, moving slowly off to the northeast, with additional showers and storms expected to develop by late morning and early afternoon. Meanwhile, LIFR/IFR stratus will also set in at INT/GSO/RDU/RWI, with MVFR more likely at FAY, and persist through midday and perhaps all day at INT/GSO. An area of low pressure tracking along a front draped across central NC will be the focus for more widespread showers/storms with locally heavy rain and adverse aviation conditions by 18-21Z and continuing through the overnight hours.

Outlook: Showers and storms will focus mostly around FAY/RWI on Sunday, followed by one more night-morning of stratus and fog Sun night-Mon morning. Drier air accompanying high pressure that will ridge into the region from the northwest will favor a lower probability of both stratus/fog and diurnal convection early/middle of next week.

RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

SYNOPSIS . bls NEAR TERM . bls SHORT TERM . bls LONG TERM . Green AVIATION . bls


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Smithfield, Johnston County Airport, NC14 mi49 minN 010.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity73°F73°F100%1013.2 hPa
Erwin, Harnett County Airport, NC16 mi49 minENE 710.00 miOvercast75°F75°F100%1013.2 hPa
Raleigh / Durham, Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC21 mi53 minN 06.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist74°F72°F94%1012.6 hPa
Sanford, Sanford-Lee County Regional Airport, NC24 mi49 minNE 310.00 miLight Rain73°F73°F100%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJNX

Wind History from JNX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3CalmCalmCalmN4CalmN3CalmN6CalmCalmCalmS3S5SE3CalmCalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4CalmCalmE3CalmN6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4SE4S4CalmS5SE4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Bannermans Branch, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Bannermans Branch
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Sat -- 12:49 AM EDT     1.40 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:07 AM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:20 PM EDT     1.21 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:59 PM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.41.31.10.90.70.50.30.20.30.60.91.11.21.210.70.50.30.10.10.20.61

Tide / Current Tables for Castle Hayne, Northeast River, North Carolina
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Castle Hayne
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Sat -- 02:41 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:53 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:06 AM EDT     1.59 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:45 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:26 PM EDT     1.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.10.80.60.40.30.50.91.31.51.61.51.30.90.60.30.10.10.30.91.41.81.91.9

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Raleigh, NC (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Raleigh/Durham, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.