Sunday, September19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Norman of Catawba, NC

Version 3.4
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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 7:25PM Sunday September 19, 2021 10:32 AM EDT (14:32 UTC) Moonrise 6:11PMMoonset 4:33AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Norman of Catawba, NC
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location: 35.6, -80.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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FXUS62 KGSP 191427 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1027 AM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021

SYNOPSIS. Abundant moisture across the region will lead to solid daily chances of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day through the middle of the week. A strong cold front will arrive from the northwest by late Wednesday, and bring cooler and drier air for the rest of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 1000 am EDT: A review of morning RAOB soundings reveals a strong gradient of precipitable water values from around two inches at FFC to about 1.3 inches at GSO. The high PWAT values nearer Atlanta are indicative of a deep moisture plume stretching across the Deep and Mid South today. Meanwhile, a ridge axis stretches from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic region and this high appears to suppress the deeper southern moisture from making much of a northward run into our region. However, improving east to southeast flow at low levels will likely provide additional triggering in our region, and decent moisture and warm cloud layers in profiles suggest numerous showers and thunderstorms in the southern mountains ranging down to isolated shower coverage nearer the I-77 corridor this afternoon. This was already in the early morning forecast, and that PoP gradient will just be sharpened up a bit on the morning update. Temps are off to a slow start with so much mid/high clouds around, but anticipate some measure of heating through the thin high clouds and developing stratocumulus to yield maxes slightly above climo, especially along and east of I-77 where insolation will be best. Severe storm potential again looks very limited, but training of slow moving cells will need to be monitored in the southwest mountains for isolated flooding.

The low-level upslope flow will continue overnight, so unlike the past few nights, it looks as if some light precip will continue near the Blue Ridge Escarpment through the overnight period. Low temps will remain above normal.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. As of 300 AM EDT Sunday: A highly amplified upper ridge will persist along the East Coast Monday into Tuesday, then shift east Wednesday, as deep trough digs into the middle of the CONUS. Some pieces of shortwave energy will lift north out around the western edge of the strong ridge, providing some upper support for precip across the region. In the low-levels a persistent ELY/SELY flow will bring a moisture plume of 1.5-2.0" PWATs into the forecast area. The 850 mb jet will be up to 25-30 kts out of the SE, so good upslope forcing along the escarpment could enhance rain chances and QPF. The models do hint at heavy rainfall, with models spitting out run accums of 4-8" thru 12z Wed in the region, but each with the bulls eye in a different spot. A couple of factors to consider is the weak mid-level lapse rates and overall CAPE across the forecast area, and potential for perhaps upstream convection in the Low Country or Midlands that could rob some of our moisture transport. Also, a hybrid or in-situ CAD looks to set up by early Tuesday, and could focus precip near the wedge front, wherever that ends up. So with all that said, not enough confidence in the excessive rain/flood threat to mention in the HWO at this time. Otherwise, it should be mostly cloudy to overcast for most of Monday and Tuesday, with low temps above normal and highs slightly below normal, coolest Tuesday with the wedge. The lack of instability will mean just an isolated thunder threat both days, mainly in the mountains.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 330 AM EDT Sunday: The latest guidance seems to be coming into better agreement on the deep Midwestern upper trough entering the Ohio Valley Wednesday, and quickly closing off into an upper low near the southern Great Lakes. The model convergence doesn't necessarily make for an easy forecast Wednesday, as there will be a weakening wedge right as a cold front pushes in from the west. If there is enough of a lull in forcing, the wedge should erode and allow some destabilization across the Piedmont ahead of the front. The GFS is still just a little faster with the front, and keeps the best instability to our east. But the ECMWF and Canadian have 1500+ J/kg with 30 kts or so of bulk shear. So could see some sort of QLCS try to organize before the front clears the area Wednesday aftn or early evening. But confidence is still too low to mention in the HWO. Temps will be tricky as well, given the dynamic environment, but look to be slightly below to near normal.

The front will push east of the area Wednesday night, ushering in a nice fall air mass to the region for the rest of the week. The center of a moderating high pressure will settle over the forecast area by 12z Friday, bringing temps down into the 40s in the mountains and foothills and lower to mid 50s elsewhere. Highs will be mainly in the 70s (except cooler above 3500 ft) under mostly clear skies. Temps will moderate to around normal over the weekend with continued dry conditions.

AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. At KCLT and elsewhere: Mountain valley low clouds and fog have scattered. High end MVFR or low end VFR stratocumulus bases should develop shortly with limited insolation, with mid/high cloud ceilings already in place. Wind direction should veer around to SE through the day, with light flow less than 10 kt. Guidance continues to suggest that the convection this afternoon will be concentrated again over northeast GA and the southwest part of NC. Only KAVL seems to have a mentionable chance of precip, so KAVL will keep a PROB30 and likely morph to a TEMPO through the day. The remainder of the terminals deserve a vicinity shower/thunderstorm at best. Unlike the last few days, the precip should linger well into the overnight hours in the upslope areas near the Blue Ridge Escarpment, however, this may not impact any of the terminals. Instead, weak upslope flow will favor the development of a widespread MVFR cloud deck in the pre-dawn hours.

Outlook: Primarily diurnal shra/tsra will continue through Monday. Shower/scattered storm chances increase Mon night through Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front. Nighttime/morning low cigs/vsbys will also become increasingly likely each day through mid-week. Dry and VFR conditions arrive behind the front by Thursday.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. NC . None. SC . None.

SYNOPSIS . ARK NEAR TERM . HG/PM SHORT TERM . ARK LONG TERM . ARK AVIATION . HG/PM


Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 89 mi62 min Calm G 0 77°F 1020.7 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Statesville Municipal Airport, NC11 mi37 minNE 410.00 miFair77°F68°F74%1022 hPa
Lincolnton, Lincolnton-Lincoln County Regional Airport, NC13 mi37 minN 010.00 miFair76°F69°F78%1021.7 hPa
Concord Regional Airport, NC20 mi42 minN 010.00 miFair77°F70°F79%1022.3 hPa
Hickory, Hickory Regional Airport, NC24 mi39 minN 010.00 miFair76°F68°F77%1019.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSVH

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Last 24hrCalmCalmNE3S4S4S3CalmNE4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4
1 day agoNE4NE6N5NE6E4E4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3
2 days agoN3CalmNW3NW3N4NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE4NE3N5NE4NE4NE4NE4

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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