Sunrise 6:31 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 12:13 AM   Moonset 9:35 AM

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FXUS62 KGSP 291008 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 608 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
The warming trend will continue through mid week as high pressure remains centered just off the Atlantic Coast. A weak cold front is expected to move through the area on Tuesday bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Another front is expected to approach the Carolinas by late week and bring more showers and thunderstorms to the area.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
600 AM Update...The fcst remains in good shape. Only made minor tweaks to winds, where isol calm conds persist within sfc-based inversions.

An off-shore sfc high continues to ridge across the area making for dry conds outside of an area of low clouds across the srn BR escarpment. These clouds will linger and become a little more widespread thru the morning as upslope flow continues. Not a great fog threat this morning as the sfc-layer decouples yet remains weakly mixed and relatively dry. However, cold air drainage will likely instigate fog development, possibly dense, across the Little TN Valley within the sw/rn NC mtns.

An east coast upper level ridge finally becomes unblocked and begins to shift east thru the period. This will shunt a sfc high further east into the Atl making for decent warm air advection in the llvls in advance of an active cold front expected on Tues. The atmos will remain quite dry today as soundings show dry LCLs and a well defined subs inversion lowering across the wrn zones. So, don't expect much afternoon cloudiness unlike the past few days and temps will respond with highs in the l80s non/mtns and u70s mtn valleys. A pre/frontal environment sets up overnight as the llvls moisten and mid/upper clouds also increase in coverage thru daybreak. A few mech lift enhanced showers will likely develop across the far sw/rn NC mtns before daybreak and have maintained mid-chance PoPs with isol thunder before dawn. Mins will remain a cat or so abv normal tonight due to WAA sfc mixing and increasing column moisture.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 3:05 AM EDT Monday: The short-term fcst picks up at 12z on Tuesday with an embedded upper shortwave approaching our area from the west. The shortwave will gradually translate over our area late Tuesday into early Wednesday and help push the upper ridge axis off the Atlantic Coast. The shortwave will then move off the Carolina Coast late Wednesday with heights rebounding in its wake and upper ridging amplifying again as the period ends early Thursday. At the sfc, broad high pressure will be centered off the SE Coast with warm, SLY low-level flow over our area as the period begins. At the same time, a weak cold front will approach our CWA from the west and move thru our area Tuesday aftn/evening. This timing should result in a decent amount of sfc-based instability across much of our area (for late April) when the boundary moves thru. Thus, sct to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected for Tuesday aftn/evening. This insta- bility coupled with the above-mentioned upper shortwave may produce some stronger thunderstorms over our area, but it's doubtful that any storms will become severe. Regardless, the boundary should be moving east of our CWA by early Wednesday with weak high pressure sliding in behind it. Temperatures start out about a category above climatology on Tuesday and continue to warm thru the period.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 2:55 AM EDT Monday: The extended forecast picks up at 12z on Thursday with upper ridging in place over the Southeast CONUS. Over the next couple of days, numerous weak upper shortwaves will lift to our north and towards the Ohio Valley region. At the same time, broad upper trofing will morph into a complex upper low just west of the Great Lakes by the end of the week on Friday. As we head into the weekend, the active northern stream will suppress the upper ridge across the Southeast as additional embedded upper shortwaves trans- late NE and over our area. At the sfc, reinforcing high pressure will migrate southward from New England on Thursday and eventually settle just off the mid-Atlantic Coast on Friday. At the same time, a more robust low is progged to eject out of the Plains and lift towards the Great Lakes. This system will bring another cold front to our area as the weekend begins. Most of the long-range guidance still has the front moving thru our area on Sat with sct to numerous showers and thunder- storms likely Fri aftn thru much of Sat. Weak high pressure slides in behind the front on Sunday, although the operational models diverge considerably wrt the synoptic pattern beyond this point. Temperatures will start out well-above climatology on Thurs and moderate some over the weekend, yet still remain above climo.

AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: Surface ridging will dominate the pattern thru the TAF period and help make for VFR conds all sites. Low cloud development will be confined across the srn NC mtns, as LCLs remain quite dry. No big VSBY issue either thru the morning hours. Winds round the sfc ridge and align generally sw/ly to s/ly with low-end gust possible mainly at KAVL and KHKY this afternoon.

Outlook: A frontal system could bring a round showers and storms to the area on Tuesday, with more of a potential for isolated diurnal convection on Wednesday and Thursday. The next front could bring better coverage of showers and storms on Friday.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

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