Sunday, March7, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Norman of Catawba, NC

Version 3.4
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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 6:25PM Sunday March 7, 2021 4:15 PM EST (21:15 UTC) Moonrise 2:55AMMoonset 12:40PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Norman of Catawba, NC
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location: 35.6, -80.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
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FXUS62 KGSP 071936 AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 236 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

SYNOPSIS. A ridge of high pressure will remain over the Carolinas northeastern Georgia into much of next week allowing the dry weather to continue. This weather pattern will lead to warmer and above normal high temps most of next week. A cold front will approach from the west Friday into the weekend leading to the potential for increased rain chances.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 155 PM EST Sunday: Stratocu moving SE across the area is diminishing and should dissipate by sundown with loss of heating. Gusty winds will diminish as well. Fire Danger Statements will remain in place until expiration.

Heights slowly rise through the period as upper trough moves east out of the area and upper ridge moves into the MS Valley. At the surface, pressure gradient relaxes as the center of high pressure moves to the spine of the Appalachians tonight and southeast of the mountains Monday. May be some mountain wave cirrus this evening but skies will generally be clear. With dry conditions and diminishing winds, lows will be around 10 degrees below normal. Sunny skies expected Monday. A developing lee trough will shift winds outside of the mountains to a southwesterly direction, while winds remain NW over the mountains. Overall, winds will be lighter than today, but some low end gusts may develop across the mountains. Highs will be up to 5 degrees above normal. With the very dry air mass remaining in place, critical RH values are expected once again. With the lighter winds however, expect Monday's Fire Danger Statement to be limited to NE GA where only one weather element is needed for issuance.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 200 PM Sunday: Upper ridging will continue to build in from the west at the start of the short-term. Broad sfc high will set up shop over the Carolinas and should help minimize any fire critical wind gusts. Higher thicknesses aloft will bump temperatures 5-10 degrees above average through the period starting on Tuesday. Despite an increase in dew point temperatures overall, the dewpoint depression stills allows for critical RH levels Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. See the Fire Wx discussion below for more information on the current outlook. Model guidance picks up on some shortwave energy that moves in from the west Tuesday afternoon, which will push scattered mid to high level clouds into the area and could alter Max T's slightly, but still remaining very warm. Expect Tuesday night to remain mostly clear as Min T's remain near-normal for this time of the year. On Wednesday, the sfc high gradually propagates offshore and brings a return flow into the area. A true low-level moisture transport will be hard to come by due to the very dry airmass and an upper high over the Gulf of Mexico nosing into the cwa to help bring in subsidence aloft. With mostly clear skies and fairly high heights, expect Wednesday to be even a couple of degrees warmer than Tuesday, with a good portion of the area outside of the mountains climbing into the 70s for Max T's.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 230 pm Sunday: Forecast confidence will be high at the start of the extended forecast period as high pressure continues to extend into the southeastern CONUS. This low amplitude ridging will lead to continued dry conditions on Thursday. Forecast confidence decreases significantly the rest of the extended period. Models continue to struggle with the split flow pattern that develops in the western United States at the beginning of the short term forecast. This split flow remains into the long range forecast period and is due in part to a Four Corners low pressure system tracking across the Desert Southwest. The cold front is likely to stall west of the forecast area due to this Four Corners low. Currently most models pick up on the cold front stalling; however, they do not agree on how long the front would stall to the west. Currently the ECMWF and Canadian have the front approaching the Appalachians Friday with the front pushing through on Saturday. However, the GFS keeps the front stalled well to our west much of the weekend and pushes the FROPA through on Sunday. Since high pressure should remain extended into most of the forecast area on Friday, most of the CWA should expect dry conditions. However, slight rain chances are possible on Friday for the far western zones of the NC mtns as the cold front approaches from the west. Saturday into Sunday rain chances will remain in the forecast for most locations as the front tries to push into the area. High temps Thursday into Friday should be around 10 degrees above normal, becoming near normal on Sunday.

AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions through the period. High based stratocu over the mountains is spilling SE into the foothills, Piedmont, and Upstate. These cloud will dissipate with loss of heating leaving clear skies through most of the night. Some cirrus may move over from time to time though. Deep mixing has lead to gusts for most of the TAF sites. Expect N to NW wind with low end gusts the rest of the afternoon with lighter N wind this evening and overnight. Wind remains N at KAVL, but at lower speeds, Monday morning with light SW to WSW wind developing elsewhere.

Outlook: Dry high pressure will remain in control of the pattern through the week with VFR conditions prevailing.

Confidence Table .

00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z 18-00Z KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAVL High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

FIRE WEATHER. The Fire Danger Statements will remain in place until expiration this evening with critical RH values and slowly diminishing winds.

The very dry air mass remains in place across the area Monday, but wilds will be lighter overall than Sunday. There may be some low end gusts across the mountains, but should remain below critical levels. That said, temperatures will be warmer, and even with slightly higher dew points, RH values should fall below 25% across much of the area. Expect another Fire Danger Statement will be needed for NE GA where only one weather element is needed for issuance. Statements not expected for the Carolinas, but land management coordination may be needed. Looks like moisture recovery will be delayed Tuesday, so with even warmer temps developing, RH values likely fall below 25% once again, but with light winds. Looks like moisture recovery begins on Wednesday, but with the warmup continuing, any slow down in recovery could lead to critical RH values.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . Fire Danger Statement until 7 PM EST this evening for GAZ010- 017-018-026-028-029. NC . Fire Danger Statement until 7 PM EST this evening for NCZ033- 048>053-058-059-062>065. SC . None.

SYNOPSIS . AP NEAR TERM . RWH SHORT TERM . CAC LONG TERM . AP AVIATION . RWH FIRE WEATHER . RWH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WATS1 - Lake Wateree, SC 89 mi45 min N 8 G 13 58°F 1026.8 hPa

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Statesville Municipal Airport, NC11 mi20 minNNW 710.00 miFair54°F13°F20%1025.7 hPa
Lincolnton, Lincolnton-Lincoln County Regional Airport, NC13 mi20 minWNW 8 G 1710.00 miFair54°F8°F16%1026.1 hPa
Concord Regional Airport, NC20 mi85 minNNW 610.00 miFair54°F16°F22%1027.8 hPa
Hickory, Hickory Regional Airport, NC24 mi22 minN 710.00 miFair53°F12°F19%1025.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSVH

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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