Sunrise 6:07 AM   Sunset 7:46 PM Moonrise 12:50 AM   Moonset 10:12 AM

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FXUS64 KMEG 292313 AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 613 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

New AVIATION

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through this evening as a cold front moves across the region. High pressure will build in across the Mid-South for Tuesday and Wednesday leading to dry conditions and above normal temperatures each day.
Showers and thunderstorms will return to the region on Thursday and linger through Friday as a front stalls in the area.
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible this weekend as warm and humid conditions remain over the region.

DISCUSSION
(This evening through next Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Showers and scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across much of west Tennessee and north Mississippi at this hour. Another line of storms has developed over north central Arkansas along a cold front. Aloft, a well-defined shortwave was digging near the ArkLaTex region. This wave will help push the cold front through the entire Mid-South by tomorrow morning. There is the potential for some heavy rainfall this afternoon, mainly east of the Mississippi River, where good poleward moisture transport and instability match up reasonably well. 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is possible with locally higher amounts.

Upper level high pressure will build in across the Lower Mississippi Valley for Tuesday and Wednesday, leading to dry and slightly above normal temperatures. Expect highs in the low to mid 80s each day with lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

A southern stream impulse will quickly translate east across Baja California on Wednesday and lift northeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday. This will spawn scattered showers and thunderstorms during the day for western portions of the forecast area.

A large and nearly stationary upper low over the Northern Plains will eject several pieces of energy across the Mississippi Valley through this weekend. The first piece of energy will spawn a surface low across the northern Plains on Thursday afternoon and help to drive a cold front into the Lower Mississippi Valley through early Friday morning. The parent low will lift north into Canada and orphan the front over the Mid-South on Friday. The boundary will likely be a trigger for renewed convection on Friday afternoon due to daytime heating. The weather pattern will remain muddled through the weekend, as a warm and unstable air remains over the region, but upper level forcing remains weak. It was hard to argue against NBM 30-40 PoPs each afternoon, due to weak perturbations embedded in nearly zonal flow aloft. Organized weather does not look likely over the next week or so as the polar jet remains displaced to the north and west of our region.

AC3

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Showers and a few thunderstorms continue across the area.
Thunderstorm probabilities will continue to decrease as the sun sets. Forecast dewpoint depressions and model guidance are hitting fog development hard tonight, particularly for JBR, but it may creep across the river into MEM. Generally stayed at IFR or MVFR, but LIFR VSBYS can't be ruled out. In accompany to fog, MVFR and IFR stratus is also likely as a shortwave approaches from the west. Winds will remain light, but vary across the region as the front passes. Winds look to shift to the north quickly after passage.

DNM

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

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