Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Garland, TN
July 3, 2024 12:54 AM CDT (05:54 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:46 AM Sunset 8:21 PM Moonrise 3:19 AM Moonset 6:43 PM |
FXUS64 KMEG 030440 AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1140 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
New AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 858 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
00Z upper air analysis places an upper-level ridge axis over the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Meanwhile, surface analysis places a 1023 mb ridge of high pressure off the New England coast.
Low-level moisture return on the back side of high pressure is present across the Mid-South with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s as of 8 PM CDT. A warm and humid night is expected across the area overnight with lows in the 70s. Forecast is in great shape overall and no changes needed at this time.
CJC
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Hot and humid conditions will plague the Mid-South Wednesday and Thursday as heat indices climb above 105 degrees areawide, with some areas exceeding 110 degrees. A few afternoon showers or thunderstorms may provide some relief from the heat, but coverage will be limited. Rain chances will increase Friday as a cold front moves into the region. This will also result in a slight cooldown as we head into the weekend. Rain chances will linger through the weekend, increasing again early next week.
DISCUSSION
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
A 596 dam subtropical ridge remains anchored over the Lower MS Valley this afternoon. Large scale subsidence continues to suppress cloud cover over the CWA and has nudged temperatures into the 90s pretty much area wide. Dewpoints remain slightly below normal, keeping heat indices in the 90s. This looks to change for tomorrow as southerly flow continues to advect moisture into the region, pushing precipitable water from near 1.00" this afternoon to ~1.9" by this time tomorrow. A few showers will be possible as early as late morning tomorrow with additional scattered, diurnal convection during the afternoon. Coverage looks to be limited during the day, favoring West TN, northeast AR, and southeast MO.
With temperatures warming into the mid/upper 90s tomorrow, heat indices will jump into the 105-113F range. This will necessitate an Excessive Heat Warning across much of the area with a Heat Advisory for the remainder of West TN and north MS.
The heat and humidity will also bring relatively strong instability to the table tomorrow. While isolated storms are possible areawide, most of the convection is expected to fire to our north in the OH Valley. This activity may pose a marginal severe weather risk as they approach northeast AR and West TN during the evening downstream of a subtle shortwave trough. MLCAPE on the order of 2500 J/kg will combine with effective bulk shear near 20-25 kts which may be just enough to support a few multicell clusters capable of damaging wind and locally heavy rainfall.
Again, this is a pretty limited threat, but nonzero nonetheless.
Similar conditions are anticipated on Independence Day, albeit perhaps a degree or two "cooler". We will again see scattered afternoon thunderstorms but the spatio-temporal confidence is less than tomorrow. Given a similar environment, the potential for damaging wind and locally heavy rainfall will exist, mainly over the northern half of the area where deep-layer shear will be greatest. This uncertainty will also preclude the issuance of a heat headline for Thursday. Will play this situation day-to-day, likely issuing a headline for Thursday by this time tomorrow.
A stronger wave will move through the Midwest on Friday and Friday evening, driving a cold front south across the CWA This looks to be the most favorable period for widespread rainfall over the next week. Precipitable water is forecast to increase to 2.3+ inches ahead of this front which is in the 90-97th percentile of climatology. Thus, there is a risk for localized heavy rainfall with this system.
Slightly cooler conditions are anticipated this weekend with temperatures dropping into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Rain chances will linger Saturday and Sunday as the upper-level trough axis remains to our west, favoring areas along/south of Interstate 40. There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast heading into next week. The most likely scenario is the trough affecting the area this weekend persists over the eastern CONUS with a ridge developing over CA into the Great Basin. This spells temperatures near to slightly below normal with rain chances each day. However, there are some outlying ensemble solutions that depict the ridge setting up farther east which means drier and warmer conditions. The other fly in the ointment is Hurricane Beryl. Guidance begins to diverge on the storms path late in the period with some models bending the remnants northwest into TX and eventually toward the Arklatex. Others keep this circulation over Mexico. Certainly bears watching, but confidence remains low.
MJ
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Light winds will be generally southerly. CAMs continue to show convection developing early tomorrow afternoon, with the highest confidence in thunder coverage around JBR and TUP. Lower confidence for convection at MEM and MKL, so thunder was excluded.
ACH
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ113-115.
MS...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ001-007-008-010>012-015>017-020>024.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ002>006- 009-013-014.
TN...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for TNZ048>050-088-089.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for TNZ001>004- 019>022-051>055-090>092.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1140 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
New AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 858 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
00Z upper air analysis places an upper-level ridge axis over the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Meanwhile, surface analysis places a 1023 mb ridge of high pressure off the New England coast.
Low-level moisture return on the back side of high pressure is present across the Mid-South with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s as of 8 PM CDT. A warm and humid night is expected across the area overnight with lows in the 70s. Forecast is in great shape overall and no changes needed at this time.
CJC
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Hot and humid conditions will plague the Mid-South Wednesday and Thursday as heat indices climb above 105 degrees areawide, with some areas exceeding 110 degrees. A few afternoon showers or thunderstorms may provide some relief from the heat, but coverage will be limited. Rain chances will increase Friday as a cold front moves into the region. This will also result in a slight cooldown as we head into the weekend. Rain chances will linger through the weekend, increasing again early next week.
DISCUSSION
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
A 596 dam subtropical ridge remains anchored over the Lower MS Valley this afternoon. Large scale subsidence continues to suppress cloud cover over the CWA and has nudged temperatures into the 90s pretty much area wide. Dewpoints remain slightly below normal, keeping heat indices in the 90s. This looks to change for tomorrow as southerly flow continues to advect moisture into the region, pushing precipitable water from near 1.00" this afternoon to ~1.9" by this time tomorrow. A few showers will be possible as early as late morning tomorrow with additional scattered, diurnal convection during the afternoon. Coverage looks to be limited during the day, favoring West TN, northeast AR, and southeast MO.
With temperatures warming into the mid/upper 90s tomorrow, heat indices will jump into the 105-113F range. This will necessitate an Excessive Heat Warning across much of the area with a Heat Advisory for the remainder of West TN and north MS.
The heat and humidity will also bring relatively strong instability to the table tomorrow. While isolated storms are possible areawide, most of the convection is expected to fire to our north in the OH Valley. This activity may pose a marginal severe weather risk as they approach northeast AR and West TN during the evening downstream of a subtle shortwave trough. MLCAPE on the order of 2500 J/kg will combine with effective bulk shear near 20-25 kts which may be just enough to support a few multicell clusters capable of damaging wind and locally heavy rainfall.
Again, this is a pretty limited threat, but nonzero nonetheless.
Similar conditions are anticipated on Independence Day, albeit perhaps a degree or two "cooler". We will again see scattered afternoon thunderstorms but the spatio-temporal confidence is less than tomorrow. Given a similar environment, the potential for damaging wind and locally heavy rainfall will exist, mainly over the northern half of the area where deep-layer shear will be greatest. This uncertainty will also preclude the issuance of a heat headline for Thursday. Will play this situation day-to-day, likely issuing a headline for Thursday by this time tomorrow.
A stronger wave will move through the Midwest on Friday and Friday evening, driving a cold front south across the CWA This looks to be the most favorable period for widespread rainfall over the next week. Precipitable water is forecast to increase to 2.3+ inches ahead of this front which is in the 90-97th percentile of climatology. Thus, there is a risk for localized heavy rainfall with this system.
Slightly cooler conditions are anticipated this weekend with temperatures dropping into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Rain chances will linger Saturday and Sunday as the upper-level trough axis remains to our west, favoring areas along/south of Interstate 40. There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast heading into next week. The most likely scenario is the trough affecting the area this weekend persists over the eastern CONUS with a ridge developing over CA into the Great Basin. This spells temperatures near to slightly below normal with rain chances each day. However, there are some outlying ensemble solutions that depict the ridge setting up farther east which means drier and warmer conditions. The other fly in the ointment is Hurricane Beryl. Guidance begins to diverge on the storms path late in the period with some models bending the remnants northwest into TX and eventually toward the Arklatex. Others keep this circulation over Mexico. Certainly bears watching, but confidence remains low.
MJ
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Light winds will be generally southerly. CAMs continue to show convection developing early tomorrow afternoon, with the highest confidence in thunder coverage around JBR and TUP. Lower confidence for convection at MEM and MKL, so thunder was excluded.
ACH
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ113-115.
MS...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ001-007-008-010>012-015>017-020>024.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ002>006- 009-013-014.
TN...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for TNZ048>050-088-089.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for TNZ001>004- 019>022-051>055-090>092.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KNQA
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KNQA
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KNQA
Wind History graph: NQA
(wind in knots)
Memphis, TN,
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