Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Garland, TN

DISCUSSION
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Another warm and quiet evening across the Mid-South, which remains on the western periphery of high pressure centered off the Atlantic Coast. Meanwhile, a cold front extends from Lower Michigan to the Central and Southern Plains, and a dryline located from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle to West Texas. Regional WSR-88D radar trends show two different areas of showers and thunderstorms, the first area is located along the I-44 corridor in Missouri and the second area is now entering western Arkansas.
This convective activity is in association with a shortwave trough moving through the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley. Temperatures as of 10 PM CDT are in the 70s nearly areawide.

Short-term model trends suggest these upstream showers and thunderstorms will begin to weaken overnight as it approaches the Mid-South late tonight towards sunrise Thursday and encounters a more stable airmass across the area. Rainfall amounts will average up to a quarter inch at best. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough is expected to traverse the periphery of the upper-level ridge axis over portions of the Middle and lower Mississippi Valleys by Thursday afternoon. There is a low (20- 40%) chance for re-development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms late Thursday afternoon if the atmosphere recovers adequately from morning convection and subsequent cloud cover. Moderate to strong instability, moderately steep to steep mid-level lapse rates, and 30-35 kts of shear may result in a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across the Mid-South during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Confidence in occurrence and coverage remains low at the moment but damaging winds and large hail remain the primary threats.

The upper-level ridge will build back in behind the shortwave later Thursday evening, resulting in a very warm and dry summer- like day for Friday. Latest guidance continues to suggest near record highs are expected as temperatures rise into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees by Friday afternoon. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be on Saturday as a cold front moves across the Lower Mississippi Valley, bringing a slightly better chance for beneficial rain but not nearly enough to alleviate the moderate to extreme drought conditions. Cooler near- normal temperatures will follow this weekend into early next week behind the front. Long term model trends continue to diverge with the timing of a return of showers and thunderstorms by mid to late next week leading towards lower confidence rain chances next week.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Predominately VFR conditions will prevail overnight. Light showers will begin to move into the Mid-South at around 08Z and continue through around 16Z, moving west to east. Southwest winds will gust up to 20 kts across JBR/MEM/MKL beginning in the mid- morning hours. Gusts should drop out by 00Z. Diurnally enhanced convection is expected to impact all terminals except TUP in the afternoon. Guidance continues to struggle on timing with said convection, therefore, confidence was only high enough to carry PROB30s. Showers and thunderstorms should clear terminals by the early evening hours.

AEH

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Moisture will rise above 40% through the end of the week, with rain chances both Thursday and Saturday. Total rainfall amounts through both events will likely be up to one inch at best. By Sunday, fire danger concerns will return as minRH values are expected to fall below 30%, with many locations falling below 25% through the first half of next week.


MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.