DISCUSSION
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat Sep 7 2024

Latest surface analysis shows a 1028 mb ridge of high pressure centered over the Upper Midwest. Cold air advection has resulted in lower temperatures, dewpoints, and elevated winds today.
Temperatures remain pleasant into this afternoon with 2 PM temperatures in the 70s across most locations.

Surface and upper-level ridging will continue to build into the Lower Mississippi Valley into the remainder of the weekend. This very cool and dry airmass will result in excellent radiational cooling tonight with temperatures falling back mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s. HRRR Grand Ensemble probabilities indicate a potential for temperatures in the middle 40s in the typically favored locations of northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee. As a result, a NBM/NBM10th percentile blend was utilized for minimum temperatures tonight.

Benign weather will persist into early next week as surface and upper-level ridging will remain in place across the region. Latest operational and ensemble model runs indicate the potential for tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico. The tropical wave could eventually move into the Lower Mississippi and Mid- South by late next week. Rainfall amounts between 1-2 inches are possible mainly south of I-40 if model consensus persists in upcoming model runs. Temperatures will warm back into the 80s to around 90 degrees for highs and lows mainly in the 60s.

CJC

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1109 AM CDT Sat Sep 7 2024

VFR. Only a wind forecast over the next 24-30 hours. Northeast winds will prevail, generally 10-15kt today with gusts up to 22kt, 5-10 tonight and 1round 10kt tomorrow.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.