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FXUS64 KMEG 270834 AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN Issued by National Weather Service Little Rock AR 334 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Mild temperatures will persist through the weekend with rain chances returning late Sunday night. A brief lull in precipitation will occur on Tuesday before daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms return midweek. Wet and mild conditions will persist through Saturday with seven day rainfall totals ranging from 2-4 inches.

DISCUSSION
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

A broad upper level trough will slowly pull northeast into the Central Plains today, becoming negatively tilted this afternoon.
While this system will bring severe weather concerns to much of the Plains, local impacts will be minimal thanks to a strong upper level ridge centered over southeast CONUS. Warm temperatures will remain through the weekend with highs in the low to mid 80s.

On Sunday, a shortwave will eject from the aforementioned trough and approach the Mid-South. A line of showers and thunderstorms should develop near the ArkLaTex region by midday and push eastward. Both ECMWF and GEFS Ensembles depict only a 30% chance of > 500 J/kg of SBCAPE along and west of the MS River late Sunday evening. Instability values will continue to wane through the overnight hours, resulting in a limited severe weather threat.
Any severe storms that do form will likely remain along and west of the MS River with damaging winds the primary concern.

Precipitable Water values Sunday night into Monday will increase to about 1.6 inches, which is around the 99th percentile for this time of year. As such, heavy rainfall will be a concern. The Weather Prediction Center has included much of the Mid-South in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall both Sunday and Monday. Storm total precipitation upwards of 2 inches will be possible, mainly along and west of the MS River.

Wet and warm conditions will remain through the work week as several shortwaves, embedded within zonal flow aloft, transverse the region. Daily rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist through Saturday, allowing for an additional 1-2 inches of rainfall. The next chance for a cold front will likely be on Saturday. Until then, make sure you have your umbrella handy.

ANS

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1104 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

South wind will increase again tomorrow as a deep surface low tracks out of the Plains across the Great Lakes. Showers and thunderstorms may impact JBR late tomorrow but MEM, KML and TUP should remain rain-free. Winds should relax after sunset.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.

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