Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Garland, TN

DISCUSSION
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Beginning to see some high clouds spread across the Mid-South early this morning with gusty winds and mild temperatures.
Overall, a largely uneventful day is expected across the Mid-South with somewhat gusty winds (20 to 25 mph gusts) continuing and high temperatures returning to the upper 70s to the NW and upper 80s to the SE. The vast majority of showers and thunderstorms will likely remain to the west of the area as an upper-level low moves out of the desert southwest. Won't rule out a rogue shower or thunderstorm today or tonight across NE AR, however, the vast majority of the Mid-South will likely remain dry until at least Sunday afternoon.

The aforementioned upper-level low is expected to move through the south/central plains on Sunday, before quickly pulling northward by Sunday evening. This system will bring showers and thunderstorms back to the Mid-South, as early as Sunday afternoon but more than likely holding out until Sunday evening and overnight. As talked about the past few days, the overall progression of this system has slowed down a bit with each model run. With this slow down, my confidence in severe weather has continued to decrease. There does appear to be a narrow band of instability that gets pulled up through NE AR and along the MS River as the low pressure pulls northward. However, most CAMs keep SBCAPE values around to less than 500 J/kg with NBM probs in the 30 to 40% range to exceed 500 J/kg. A similar, and yet more lackluster portrait is painted with MLCAPE values. MUCAPE values are a bit more favorable, but I question if we would be able to tap into the full potential there. On the more favorable side of things, there will be ample shear present as the 700 mb jet does intensify across this area by Sunday evening. However, still think that the window for any severe weather would be very narrow at best, so my confidence remains low. This would be for locations mainly west of the MS River and likely in the Sunday evening (after 8 PM) window. In conclusion, storms should be losing their strength as they move into our area, which makes confidence in any severe weather threats low. If a severe storm does occur, damaging wind gusts and hail up to the size of quarters would be the main concern along the main line as it pushes through the area. The tornado threat is non-zero given the low-level curvature of our winds, but think the better set up will remain to the west of our area.

With the slow progression of the frontal boundary, showers and thunderstorms will likely remain in the forecast through at least Monday morning and across NE MS into the afternoon hours. There will be a window of opportunity by the afternoon across NE MS where instability will begin to increase. However, given the parent low will be well to the north of the area, think most storms if any would remain sub-severe. Total rainfall amounts through the weekend and into Monday will likely remain around 1 inch across the area, so flash flooding should remain fairly limited. With this being said, any additional rainfall will eventually move into our already overwhelmed river systems, so river flooding is expected to continue into next week.

The aforementioned frontal boundary will begin to stall as it pushes to the edge of the area, which may in turn keep at least some scattered (50 to 60%) PoPs across MS on Tuesday. Somewhat of a messier set-up will begin by Wednesday, with a series of systems moving through the area through the back half of next week. This will likely keep showers and thunderstorm chances around. Nothing is jumping off the page in regards to severe weather, but it is the end of April so we will continue to keep an eye on things in that regard. High temperatures will remain above-normal throughout next week, generally spanning the upper 70s to mid 80s.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

VFR conds overnight. Low level winds will be elevated overnight with LLWS expected. MVFR deck will advect into the area late tonight into Saturday morning. VFR conds will return by noon Saturday with winds slowly diminishing as the gradient slackens in the afternoon.

MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.