Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Garland, TN

DISCUSSION
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Showers are expected to continue diminishing in coverage through tonight as instability wanes. High low-level humidity and weak surface winds do hint at fog potential through Sunday morning, but high clouds are expected to keep any fog isolated. Therefore, some areas of patchy fog are possible tonight, especially across northern Mississippi where current HRRR guidance has pockets of 30% - 40% probabilities of visibility below 1/2 mile. There is the potential for a few showers and thunderstorms, currently in south-central Missouri, to persist long enough to arrive in the western half of the region through tonight. However, confidence is low in this scenario as CAMs struggle to keep storms alive past 03z - 06z, which in combination with current radar and satellite trends, suggests storms will struggle in the coming hours.

The surface air mass is expected to continue being muggy with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s as a ridge axis remains parked over the Mississippi River Valley through this weekend.
More afternoon convection is forecast tomorrow, similar to today, as MLCAPE values climb above 2000 J/kg in a weakly forced environment. Expect heavy downpours and gusty winds with stronger cells and a decrease in shower and thunderstorm coverage after sunset.

Fortunately, the upper pattern will become dislodged into Monday as an upper low over the Northeast begins to move south. Upper height falls will overspread the hot, humid air mass that has pervaded the region for the past two weeks through the day Monday. With this synoptic support, thunderstorms are once again forecast Monday afternoon and will likely be more widespread than the past few days. Additionally, better upper level dynamics and strong instability will let storms attain better organization, possibly growing into an MCS through the late afternoon and evening. At the minimum, forecast soundings show enough (25 - 30 knots) bulk shear will exist within 2000+ MLCAPE, suggesting the potential for some severe weather. As such, SPC has placed most of the region in a Marginal (level 1/5) Risk for severe weather for damaging wind gusts. Alongside the severe threat will be a limited flash flooding threat with PWATs between 1.75" - 2.00". There is the potential for early morning thunderstorms that would change the timing of the peak severe threat, but model guidance is still highly varied and is not yet within the CAM window to get a consensus from the HRRR and REFS. So, expect changes to Monday's forecast in the next couple days as the HiRes window arrives.

On Tuesday the upper low will amplify and continue to swing south. A surface high will form over the Northeast and Great Lakes, pushing a cold front into the region. Temperatures will only marginally cool with highs falling into the low 80s and upper 70s. Luckily, dewpoints will drop towards 60 F, making afternoon weather both Tuesday and Wednesday much more bearable.
A gradual warm up will then take over through the end of next week as southerly flow returns after the surface high slides southeast over the Atlantic coast. Thanks to ridging behind the upper low, the forecast also remains dry Tuesday through the end of the work week.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

00Z short range guidance suggests IFR/LIFR potential has increased slightly for the overnight period. Thereafter, VFR should prevail the bulk of the daytime hours, similar to the previous days.

A few CAMs, notably the HRRR and NSSL WRF, continue to depict a cluster of TSRA dropping south out of SE MO Sunday evening. 06Z TAFs will continue the PROB30 TSRA for JBR for continuity, though timing is delayed by a few hours. To the south, questionable atmospheric ingredients later Sunday evening (weak inflow and strengthening convective inhibition) preclude a PROB30 TS mention for MEM at this time.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

No fire weather concerns are expected through at least early next week. An unsettled and wet pattern is anticipated to persist across the Mid-South through Monday, with scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

A drier pattern will emerge Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold front moves through the region, but rain chances return by the weekend.


MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.